Choose one of the following forecasting methods discussed in this chapter: last-value, averaging, moving-average, or exponential smoothing. Identify the conditions when the method is most appropriate to use and give an example of an application of this method.
Q: The use of quarterly data to develop the forecasting model Yt = a +bYt-1 is an example of which…
A: The forecasting refers to the prediction technique for a certain situation taking into consideration…
Q: What is a qualitative forecasting model, and when is its use appropriate?
A: Forecasting refers to making predictions based on past and present data and analyzing the trends.…
Q: The number of heart surgeries performed at Heartville General Hospital has increased steadily over…
A: Exponential smoothing is often utilized for the analysis of time-series data. Exponential smoothing…
Q: Divergence happens when the price of an asset and the indicator moves to same directions
A: Divergence between an asset's price and practically any technical or fundamental indicator or data…
Q: Short-range forecasts tend to ________ longer-range forecasts. A. deal with more comprehensive…
A: Forecasts for the short term are made using data that has been seen, extrapolated, and how systems…
Q: QUESTION 9 A seasonal index is calculated by dividing the _________. current season by the…
A: Note: We will answer one question as the exact one was not specified. Please resubmit a new question…
Q: Use simple exponential smoothing with a = 0.6 to forecast the tire sales for September through…
A: Forecasting sales refers to the prediction of future sales using previous data to estimate the…
Q: True or False ? Justify your answers. A quadratic trend model y = B1 + B2TIME + B3TIME? + &t is…
A: 1 A quadratic trend model y = B 1 + B ₂TIME + B 3 Time 3 + et is considered a linear regression.…
Q: Two different forecasting techniques (F1 and F2) were used to forecast demand for cases of bottled…
A:
Q: Question 1. Using 'HW3.csv' data file, calculate the following statistics of 'consumption'. 1) Mean…
A: Question 1 1) Mean(X)=414+51+258+766+829+952+656+439+598+69810 =5,66110…
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A: Economics is a branch of social science that describes and analyzes the behaviors and decisions…
Q: Suppose sales for the past 6 months have been 100, 106, 87, 102, 87, and 104 Using a smoothing…
A: Suppose sales for the past 6 months have been 100,106,87,102,87,and 104 Here smoothing coefficient…
Q: You own a restaurant near the beach. Business has been growing each year, but obviously spikes…
A: The regression equation gives a mathematical form to the association or link between two or more…
Q: An econometrician finds the following estimates of the relationship between the price of tomatoes -…
A: Market power, also referred to as monopolistic power, is the capacity of a firm (or group of firms)…
Q: What factor(s) determine the magnitude of the LM slope (steep or flat)?
A: The factor that determine the magnitude of the LM curve, i.e. whether it will be steep or flat…
Q: Which of the following is NOT TRUE about trend analysis? a) In trend analysis every item is…
A: Economics as a subject deals with the allocation of scarce resources among humans with unlimited…
Q: Identify and briefly describe the two general forecasting approaches.
A: Qualitative forecasting is predicated on information that cannot be measured. It's especially…
Q: onential Smoothing with the following parameters: Ft+1=32 and the α = .15 Regression Months 1 2 3 4…
A: *Answer: . Forecasts are useful tools for making predictions and analyzing future outcomes.…
Q: The forecasting staff for the Prizer Corporation has developed a model to predict sales of its…
A: A sales forecasting model is employed to estimate the expected influx of revenue on the basis of…
Q: which sentences are correct? 1.Decomposition methods assume that the actual time series value at…
A: We are going to use time series econometrics concept to answer the question. Note: Due to StudyMode…
Q: ber of tons of brake assemblies received at an auto parts distribution center last month wa ast…
A: Given that,
Q: Mr. John operates a medium size business that sells tires. He buys most of his tires from a company…
A: What is EOQ? Economic order quantity is the ideal quantity any company should order to minimize…
Q: Question 4 Consider the following data: Month Bicycles Sold 21.6 2. 22.9 25.5 21.9 23.9 6. 27.5 7…
A: We are going to calculate Mean Absolute Percentage Error using its formula and definition.
Q: Director Very Busy needs to allocate time this week for office appointments, so he needs to forecast…
A: Economics is a branch of social science that describes and analyzes the behaviors and decisions…
Q: ANSWER 1-5 IF TRUE OR FALSE 1. As an initial attempt, we use multiple line chart to see trend and…
A: "Since you have asked multiple questions, we will solve first question for you .. If you want any…
Q: Here are the errors associated with a particular forecast over the past five months, in…
A: Economics is a branch of social science that describes and analyzes the behaviors and decisions…
Q: With respect to a given product, describe the connection that exists between…
A: A product i Phone is said to be in equilibrium if its quantity demanded is equal to quantity…
Q: The quadrant on which IS and LM are plotted is known as IY space? true or false
A: IS line shows the goods market equilibrium and it is downward sloping curve which shows Inverse…
Q: c. What would be this week's forecast for employee appointments using exponential smoothing with…
A: Economics is a branch of social science that describes and analyzes the behaviors and decisions…
Q: A firm experienced the demand shown in the following table. Fill in the table by preparing forecasts…
A: Compute 5-year moving average demand forecast using Fy = (Dy-1 + Dy-2 + Dy-3 + Dy-4 + Dy-5) / 5…
Q: Suppose you have an extra six months of data on demands and prices, in addition to the data in the…
A: Given:
Q: Question 3 The following ACF plots were produced for raw data of monthly sales of two different…
A: For each lag, the height of the corresponding spike represents the value of the autocorrelation…
Q: Historical demand for the product is: Month Demand January 12 February 11 March 15 April 12 May 16…
A: Month Demand Weights Weighted average April 12 0.1 12*0.1 =1.2 May 16 0.3 16*0.3=4.8 June…
Q: What is the index formulation used for?
A: The index formulation is the statistical measure which calculates the change in the variable over…
Q: Suppose we have the following time series data on variable Y (where t = trend): t Y 1 100 2 120 3…
A: Given: t y (At) 1 100 2 120 3 160 4 200 α=0.5
Q: On the graph beside, we see the residuals from applying the average forecasting method on 200 daily…
A: Answer - Autocorrelation:- Autocorrelation exsist when there is similarity betwenn the current…
Q: What action should be taken when unacceptable error is found in tracking a forecast?
A: Forecasting is the method of predicting future trends in the economy by analyzing the present and…
Q: Exponential smoothing gives more weight to the _______________ observations and less to the…
A: Exponential smoothing is the process used to smooth the data for making forecasts and framing…
Q: The trade-in value, V, of a certain model of automobile can be determined using the function…
A: We are going to conduct marginal analysis to answer this question.
Q: How does it reconcile cross-sectional data with that from time series macroeconomic data
A: Milton Friedman demonstrates that the total cost of admission is indistinguishable from never-ending…
Q: Which of the following is true about ARIMA models A. ARIMA models cannot be used for seasonal data…
A: ARIMA stands for Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average. The lags of the stationary series in…
Q: Qualitative methods of forecasting include:a) sales force composite. b) jury of executive opinion.c)…
A: The methods of sales forecasting include qualitative and quantitative methods. Some of the…
Q: How Forecasts is compared with predicted values? why these both terms are different?
A: A forecast is an estimation that is based on the previous data. A prediction is estimating the…
Q: Forecasting accuracy cannot be considered as a performance metric (TRUE/ FALSE).
A: Performance metrics is a measurement of behaviour of the organisation it's related activities and…
Q: Based on the information in the following table, use the Exponential Smoothing Approach (a =0.5) to…
A: Use the below formula: Ft+1=αDt + 1 + αFt Ft+1=forecast for next period Dt=actual demand for…
Q: ITEMS 18 to 20 ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The following information pertains to Emy…
A: Given: The annual demand for Emy manufacturing corporation is = 33,750 units The annual cost to hold…
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- Historical demand for Peeps is as displayed in the table. Month Demand January 11 February 18 March 31 April 39 May 44 June 53 July 67 August 82 September 96 Develop forecasts from June through October using these techniques: Holt's method with alpha=0.2 and beta=0.1. For Holt's model, the level and trend for May are assumed to be 44 and 12. Judge which forecast method is the best based on MAD.Consumer expenditure plans is an example of a forecasting method. Which of the general categories best described this example?Use simple exponential smoothing with a = 0.6 to forecast the tire sales for September through December. Assume that the forecast for August was for 46 sets of tires. Do your forecasts seem to be biased? Why or why not? Month Sales August 53 September35 October 48 November 40
- A researcher has a sample of 6 annual observations {94, 104, 102, 99, 111 and 107} for the CPI in country Z for the period 2015 to 2020, and wants to forecast CPI for the years 2021, 2022 and 2023. The researcher uses 3 different forecasting models: A, B and C. Model A is an AR(1) model with no drift and with an estimated autoregressive coefficient = 0.7. Model B is a MA(1) model with no constant and with an estimated MA coefficient = -0.4 (note the minus !). Model C is a random walk model with no drift. The error terms over the 2015-2020 period were estimated to have the values: {3, -1, 2, 4, -3, 1}. a. Compute the 2021, 2022 and 2023 forecasted values for the consumer price index based on the three models. Show the formulas and the details of your calculations, and explain all the related symbols. b. Suppose that the actual values of the CPI over the 2021, 2022 and 2023 were {108, 114, 105}. Calculate the Root mean square error of the three model forecasts over the 2021-2023…Qualitative methods of forecasting include:a) sales force composite. b) jury of executive opinion.c) consumer market survey. d) exponential smoothing.e) all except (d).Mai sells makeup online and has noticed that demand for her products, glittery lip gloss, has varied wildly over the past few months she has been selling it. She's been doing some online advertising and thinks there might be a relationship between how much she's spending each week on ads and her weekly lip gloss sales, so she's used Excel to create an Associative Forecast: where the intercept is -20 and the slope is 2.5 per $ spent advertising. Use this information to forecast lip gloss sales in week 18, when she will be spending $100 on advertising. Answer:
- All questions utilize the multivariate demand function for Smooth Sailing sailboats in C6 on text page 83. Compute to three decimal places. Initial values are: PX = $9500 PY = $10000 I = $15000 A = $170000 W = 160 This function is: Qs = 89830 -40PS +20PX +15PY +2I +.001A +10W 1.(a). Use the above to calculate the arc price elasticity of demand between PS = $9000 decreasing to PS = $8000. The arc elasticity formula is: 1.(b). Judging from the computation in (a), do you expect the revenue resulting from the decrease in Ps to $8000 to increase, remain the same, or decrease relative to the revenue at Ps = $9000. (Hint: see the table on page 65 of Truett). Explain your choice. 1.(c). Calculate the point elasticity of demand for Smooth Sailing sailboats at PS = $9000 (which should make Qs = 101600). The formula is: 1.(d). Does this elasticity value indicate that Smooth Sailing demand is relatively responsive to changes in the price of these sailboats? Explain…Suppose we have the following time series data on variable Y (where t = trend): Y 100 2 120 3 160 200 Using simple exponential smoothing where x = 0.5, calculate the forecast of Y when t = 5. Report your answer to only one decimal point.Two independent methods of forecasting based on judgment and experience have been prepared each month for the past 10 months. The forecasts and actual sales are as follows: Month Sales Forecast 1 Forecast 2 1 770 771 769 2 789 785 787 3 794 790 792 4 780 784 798 5 768 770 774 6 772 768 770 7 760 761 759 8 775 771 775 9 786 784 788 10 790 788 788 (a). Compute the MSE and MAD for each forecast. Does either forecast seem superior? Explain. (b). Compute MAPE for each forecast.
- The problem is based on the following data given. Observations of the demand for a certain part stocked at a parts supply depot during the calendar year 2013 were ( as shown ). Determine the one-step-ahead forecasts for the demand for January 2014 using 3‑, 6-, and 12-month moving averages.Identify and briefly describe the two general forecasting approaches.You have collected data for the 50 U.S. states and estimated the following relationship between the change in the unemployment rate from the previous year (Aur) and the growth rate of the respective state real GDP (gy). The results are as follows: R² = 0.36, SER=0.78 Aur=2.81-0.23xgy (0.12) (0.04) Assuming that the estimator has a normal distribution, the 95% confidence interval for the slope is approximately the interval: OA. [2.57, 3.05]. OB. [-0.31, 0.15]. OC. [-0.31, -0.15]. OD. [-0.33, -0.13].