P(Ai)?P(S|A)?P(Ai ∩ S)?P(Ai | S)?New Probability for findind the oil? (b) After 200 feet of drilling on the first well, a soil test is taken. The probabilities of finding the particular type of soil identified by the test are as follows.P(soil | high-quality oil) = 0.20P(soil | medium-quality oil) = 0.80P(soil | no oil) = 0.20 An oil company purchased an option on land in Alaska. Preliminary geologic studies assigned the following prior probabilities.P(high-quality oil) = 0.650.20P(no oil) = 0.15P(medium-quality oil)

Answered: An oil company purchased an option on…

An oil company purchased an option on land in Alaska. Preliminary geologic studies assigned the following prior probabilities. P(high-quality oil) = 0.65 P(medium-quality oil) = 0.20 P(no oil) 0.15

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)

10th Edition

ISBN:9780134753119

Author:Sheldon Ross

Publisher:Sheldon Ross

Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...

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Question

100%

P(Ai)?

P(S|A)?

P(A_i ∩ S)?

P(A_i | S)?

New Probability for findind the oil?

(b) After 200 feet of drilling on the first well, a soil test is taken. The probabilities of finding the particular type of soil identified by the test are as follows.
P(soil | high-quality oil) = 0.20
P(soil | medium-quality oil) = 0.80
P(soil | no oil) = 0.20

An oil company purchased an option on land in Alaska. Preliminary geologic studies assigned the following prior probabilities.
P(high-quality oil) = 0.65
0.20
P(no oil) = 0.15
P(medium-quality oil)

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Expert Solution

Step 1

Given that

$P (h i g h - q u a l i t y o i l) = 0.65 P (m e d i u m - q u a l i t y o i l) = 0.20 P (n o o i l) = 0.15$

The conditional probabilities is displayed below.

$P (s o i l | h i g h - q u a l i t y o i l) = 0.20 P (s o i l | m e d i u m - q u a l i t y o i l) = 0.80 P (s o i l | n o o i l) = 0.20$

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