MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781119256830
Author: Amos Gilat
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc
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An airline offers "advance-purchase" fares to customers who buy their tickets at least four weeks before the flight. The airline has noticed that 80% of its customers who buy tickets don't take advantage of advance-purchase fares and the remaining 20% do. The no-show rate for those who don't have advance-purchase fares is 25%, while for those who do have them, it is only 15%.
(a)
Calculate the probabilities labeled on the tree diagram below. (Give answers correct to three decimal places.)
A tree diagram with 6 branches is shown.
- The tree diagram begins at a point and an upper and lower branch extend from this point to the right. From each of these two branches two more upper and lower branches extend to the right.
- The branches extending from the first point from top to bottom are labeled a and b and end at points labeled "no advance purchase" and "advance purchase" respectively.
- The branches extending from "no advance purchase" and "advance purchase" from top to bottom are labeled c, d, e, h and end at points labeled "no show", "show up", "no show", and "show up" respectively.
- A column to the right of the tree diagram labeled "Final probability" shows a value next to each of the four branches extending from "no advance purchase" and "advance purchase". From top to bottom, they are p, n, k and u.
(b)
Create a "hypothetical hundred thousand" table for this situation.
Method | Shows | No Shows | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Buy Advance Tickets | |||
Doesn't Buy Advance Tickets | |||
Total |
(c)
Using the tree diagram from part (a) or the table from part (b), find the percent of customers who are no-shows.
%
(d)
Given that a customer is a no-show, what is the probability that they had an advance-purchase fare? (Enter your answer as a fraction.)
(e)
Refer to the answer you found in part (d). Write a sentence presenting this result that someone with no training in statistics would understand.
About 13% of customers who do not show for this route had purchased advanced tickets.About 87% of customers who do not show for this route had purchased advanced tickets. About 87% of customers who show for this route had purchased advanced tickets.About 23% of customers who do not show for this route had purchased advanced tickets.About 13% of customers who show for this route had purchased advanced tickets.
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