Aileen, a Scottish spy, has three fake identities that she uses to get information. The process is really quite involved, but she uses a Markov chain process to make it more difficult for her Irish adversaries to track her: "Hope" (state 1), "Trixie"(state 2), and "Fiona" (state 3). The transition matrix is .5 .5 P. 2. 2 6.

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Aileen, a Scottish spy, has three fake identities that she uses to get information. The process is really
quite involved, but she uses a Markov chain process to make it more difficult for her Irish adversaries
to track her: "Hope" (state 1), "Trixie"(state 2), and "Fiona" (state 3). The transition matrix is
.5
.5
P =
.2
.2
.6
.4 .1
.5
On the first observation, Aileen used "Trixie" as her identity. Which of the three fake identities is she
most likely to have used on the third observation?
O Hope and Fiona are equally likely
O Hope and Trixie are equally likely
Fiona
О Норе
O None of the others are correct
O Trixie
Transcribed Image Text:Aileen, a Scottish spy, has three fake identities that she uses to get information. The process is really quite involved, but she uses a Markov chain process to make it more difficult for her Irish adversaries to track her: "Hope" (state 1), "Trixie"(state 2), and "Fiona" (state 3). The transition matrix is .5 .5 P = .2 .2 .6 .4 .1 .5 On the first observation, Aileen used "Trixie" as her identity. Which of the three fake identities is she most likely to have used on the third observation? O Hope and Fiona are equally likely O Hope and Trixie are equally likely Fiona О Норе O None of the others are correct O Trixie
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