Advise the company on the most beneficial course of action using a decision tree

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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DECISION TREE TUTORIAL
A company is considering whether to develop and market a particular product. There is 40% probability
that the research and development department will come up with a viable product, and a 60%
probability that the product will be scrapped. The cost of undertaking the research and development
is N$200 000.
If the product development is successful, the company will build a plant. The product demand is
unknown, and the company has the choice of building a large or small plant. The expected demand
and net present value is shown below:
Action
Large plant
Small plant
High demand
Probability 75%
N$1 600 000
N$1 000 000
Low demand
Probability 25%
N$400 000
N$ 1 000 000
Required:
Advise the company on the most beneficial course of action using a decision tree
Transcribed Image Text:DECISION TREE TUTORIAL A company is considering whether to develop and market a particular product. There is 40% probability that the research and development department will come up with a viable product, and a 60% probability that the product will be scrapped. The cost of undertaking the research and development is N$200 000. If the product development is successful, the company will build a plant. The product demand is unknown, and the company has the choice of building a large or small plant. The expected demand and net present value is shown below: Action Large plant Small plant High demand Probability 75% N$1 600 000 N$1 000 000 Low demand Probability 25% N$400 000 N$ 1 000 000 Required: Advise the company on the most beneficial course of action using a decision tree
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