A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN: 9780134753119
Author: Sheldon Ross
Publisher: PEARSON
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A consulting firm submitted a bid for a large research project. The firm's
management initially felt they had a 50-50 chance of getting the project. However,
the agency to which the bid was submitted subsequently requested additional
information on the bid. Past experience indicates that for 75% of the successful bids
and 40% of the unsuccessful bids the agency requested additional information.
a. What is the prior probability of the bid being successful (that is, prior to the
request for additional information) (to 1 decimal)?
b. What is the conditional probability of a request for additional information given
that the bid will ultimately be successful (to 2 decimals)?
X
c. Compute the posterior probability that the bid will be successful given a request
for additional information (to 2 decimals).
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Transcribed Image Text:A consulting firm submitted a bid for a large research project. The firm's management initially felt they had a 50-50 chance of getting the project. However, the agency to which the bid was submitted subsequently requested additional information on the bid. Past experience indicates that for 75% of the successful bids and 40% of the unsuccessful bids the agency requested additional information. a. What is the prior probability of the bid being successful (that is, prior to the request for additional information) (to 1 decimal)? b. What is the conditional probability of a request for additional information given that the bid will ultimately be successful (to 2 decimals)? X c. Compute the posterior probability that the bid will be successful given a request for additional information (to 2 decimals).
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