Harlen Industries has a simple forecasting model: Take the actual demand for the same month last year and divide that by the number of fractional weeks in that month. This gives the average weekly demand for that month. This weekly average is used as the weekly forecast for the same month this year. This technique was used to forecast eight weeks for this year, which are shown below along with the actual demand that occurred:The following eight weeks show the forecast (based on last year) and the demand that actually occurred:| Week | Forecast Demand | Actual Demand ||------|-----------------|---------------|| 1 | 130 | 127 || 2 | 138 | 123 || 3 | 146 | 149 || 4 | 144 | 159 || 5 | 146 | 179 || 6 | 156 | 169 || 7 | 158 | 184 || 8 | 145 | 205 |a. Compute the MAD of forecast errors. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)| Week | MAD ||------|------|| 1 | || 2 | || 3 | || 4 | || 5 | || 6 | || 7 | || 8 | |b. Using the RSFE, compute the tracking signal. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places. Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign.)| Week | Tracking Signal ||------|-----------------|| 1 | || 2 | || 3 | || 4 | || 5 | || 6 | || 7 | || 8 | |c. Based on your answers to parts a and b, comment on Harlen’s method of forecasting.- The forecast should be considered poor.- The forecast should be considered good.

Answered: a. Compute the MAD of forecast errors.…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

See similar textbooks

Similar questions

please answer in excel Jean’s Copiers sells and repairs photocopy machines. The manager needs weekly forecasts of service calls so that she can schedule the personnel. The manager uses α = 0.3 for exponential smoothing, and the forecast for the first week was 24 calls. The manager also uses 3 weekly moving averages technique. a) Using 3 period moving averages, forecast the number of calls for week 7. b) Using exponential smoothing, forecast the number of calls for week 7. c) Compare these two forecasting techniques using Mean Squared Errors (MSE) measure. Which one is better?
8. Calculate (a) MAD and (b) MSE for the following forecast versus actual sales figures: Forecast 100 110 120 130 Actual 95 108 123 130 Part 2 a) MAD= __________ (round your response to one decimal place).
Week 1 2 4 Forecast Method 1 0.90 1.05 0.97 1.22 Actual Demand 0.72 1.05 1.00 0.97 Week 1 2 3 4 Forecast Method 2 0.82 1.19 0.90 1.17 Actual Demand 0.72 1.05 1.00 0.97 0 The MAD for Method 1 = thousand gallons (round your response to three decimal places). The mean squared error (MSE) for Method 1 = thousand gallons (round your response to three decimal places). The MAD for Method 2 = thousand gallons (round your response to three decimal places). The mean squared error (MSE) for Method 2 = thousand gallons (round your response to three decimal places).
The Handy-Dandy Department Store had forecast sales of $110,000 for the previous week. The actual sales were $130,000.a. What is the forecast for this week, using exponential smoothing and α = .1?b. If sales this week turn out to be $120,000, what is the forecast for next week?
How do exponential smoothing have benefits over shifting.averages as a forecasting tool?
Please answer all three subparts with explanation. I will really really upvote. Thanks
Assume today's date is 12/31/2023. Actual sales and forecast for 2023 are given below. Actual Forecast 2023 72.4 66.9 59.5 61.2 260 2023 69 67 Q3 61 Q4 59 Total 256 Obtain the MAD Q1 Q2 7.2 1.8 -1
Interpret the MAD of the most accurate among the forecasting models below. A. Naïve approach;B. 5-month SMA model;C. WMA model with weights 0.1, 0.3, and 0.6; orD. ES model with α = 0.5 and a forecast of 3,500 liters in the first month.
Time period Actual sales 1 18 2 22 If the forecasting value of period 3 is 19.6 using exponential smoothing, the smoothing constant is what?
Forecast based on averages. Given the following data: Period Number of Complaints 1 70 2 75 3 65 4 68 5 74 Prepare a forecast for period 6 using each of these approaches: a. A weighted average using weights of .50 (most recent), .30, .20 b. Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of .40
An exponential smoothing is being used to forecast demand. Which of the following alpha value (or error weight) should be used if the demand is highly sensitive to the current events and external factors? a. 0.75 b. 0.05 c. -1.5 d. 0.0 e. 1.75
Given an actual demand this period of 143, a forecast value for this period of 119, and an alpha of .6, what is the exponential smoothing forecast for next period? 123.8 118.2 O 122.2 119.8 O 117.4

Recommended textbooks for you

Practical Management Science

Operations Management

ISBN:

9781337406659

Author:

WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:

Cengage,

Operations Management

ISBN:

9781259667473

Author:

William J Stevenson

Publisher:

McGraw-Hill Education

Operations and Supply Chain Management (Mcgraw-hi…

Operations Management

ISBN:

9781259666100

Author:

F. Robert Jacobs, Richard B Chase

Publisher:

McGraw-Hill Education

Practical Management Science

Operations Management

ISBN:

9781337406659

Author:

WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:

Cengage,

Operations Management

ISBN:

9781259667473

Author:

William J Stevenson

Publisher:

McGraw-Hill Education

Operations and Supply Chain Management (Mcgraw-hi…

Operations Management

ISBN:

9781259666100

Author:

F. Robert Jacobs, Richard B Chase

Publisher:

McGraw-Hill Education

Business in Action

Operations Management

ISBN:

9780135198100

Author:

BOVEE

Publisher:

PEARSON CO

Purchasing and Supply Chain Management

Operations Management

ISBN:

9781285869681

Author:

Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. Patterson

Publisher:

Cengage Learning

Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Editi…

Operations Management

ISBN:

9781478623069

Author:

Steven Nahmias, Tava Lennon Olsen

Publisher:

Waveland Press, Inc.

SEE MORE TEXTBOOKS

a. Compute the MAD of forecast errors. (Round your answers to 2 declmal places.) Week MAD 1 2 3 4 7 8