A trader invented a strategy where he can either win or lose a certain amount of money every day (say, k dollars) with equal probability, independently of all other days. (In fact, such a strategy is not very difficult to implement - buy a very liquid asset whose price moves without major jumps and liquidate the position as soon as you are making or losing k dollars). He then made the following statement: “If I use my strategy every day for the next 400 days, my chances of staying within 10,000 dollars of the original account balance are equal to 1/3. (a) What is k (approximately)? (b) What are his chances (approximately) of making over 20,000 with this strategy in 400 days?

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A trader invented a strategy where he can either win or lose a certain amount of money every day (say, k dollars) with equal probability, independently of all other days. (In fact, such a strategy is not very difficult to implement - buy a very liquid asset whose price moves without major jumps and liquidate the position as soon as you are making or losing k dollars). He then made the following statement: “If I use my strategy every day for the next 400 days, my chances of staying within 10,000 dollars of the original account balance are equal to 1/3.
(a) What is k (approximately)?
(b) What are his chances (approximately) of making over 20,000 with this strategy in 400 days?

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