A manager is trying to decide whether to buy one machine ortwo. If only one machine is purchased and demand provesto be excessive, the second machine can be purchased later.Some sales would be lost, however, because the lead timefor delivery of this type of machine is 6 months. In addition,the cost per machine will be lower if both machines are pur-chased at the same time. The probability of low demand isestimated to be 0.30 and that of high demand to be 0.70. Theafter-tax NPV of the benefits from purchasing two machinestogether is $90,000 if demand is low and $170,000 if demandis high.If one machine is purchased and demand is low, the NPV is$120,000. If demand is high, the manager has three options:(1) doing nothing, which has an NPV of $120,000; (2) subcon-tracting, with an NPV of $140,000; and (3) buying the secondmachine, with an NPV of $130,000.a. Draw a decision tree for this problem.b. What is the best decision and what is its expected payoff?

Understanding Business
12th Edition
ISBN:9781259929434
Author:William Nickels
Publisher:William Nickels
Chapter1: Taking Risks And Making Profits Within The Dynamic Business Environment
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1CE
icon
Related questions
icon
Concept explainers
Topic Video
Question

A manager is trying to decide whether to buy one machine or
two. If only one machine is purchased and demand proves
to be excessive, the second machine can be purchased later.
Some sales would be lost, however, because the lead time
for delivery of this type of machine is 6 months. In addition,
the cost per machine will be lower if both machines are pur-
chased at the same time. The probability of low demand is
estimated to be 0.30 and that of high demand to be 0.70. The
after-tax NPV of the benefits from purchasing two machines
together is $90,000 if demand is low and $170,000 if demand
is high.
If one machine is purchased and demand is low, the NPV is
$120,000. If demand is high, the manager has three options:
(1) doing nothing, which has an NPV of $120,000; (2) subcon-
tracting, with an NPV of $140,000; and (3) buying the second
machine, with an NPV of $130,000.
a. Draw a decision tree for this problem.
b. What is the best decision and what is its expected payoff?

Expert Solution
steps

Step by step

Solved in 2 steps with 3 images

Blurred answer
Knowledge Booster
Inventory management
Learn more about
Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, management and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.
Similar questions
Recommended textbooks for you
Understanding Business
Understanding Business
Management
ISBN:
9781259929434
Author:
William Nickels
Publisher:
McGraw-Hill Education
Management (14th Edition)
Management (14th Edition)
Management
ISBN:
9780134527604
Author:
Stephen P. Robbins, Mary A. Coulter
Publisher:
PEARSON
Spreadsheet Modeling & Decision Analysis: A Pract…
Spreadsheet Modeling & Decision Analysis: A Pract…
Management
ISBN:
9781305947412
Author:
Cliff Ragsdale
Publisher:
Cengage Learning
Management Information Systems: Managing The Digi…
Management Information Systems: Managing The Digi…
Management
ISBN:
9780135191798
Author:
Kenneth C. Laudon, Jane P. Laudon
Publisher:
PEARSON
Business Essentials (12th Edition) (What's New in…
Business Essentials (12th Edition) (What's New in…
Management
ISBN:
9780134728391
Author:
Ronald J. Ebert, Ricky W. Griffin
Publisher:
PEARSON
Fundamentals of Management (10th Edition)
Fundamentals of Management (10th Edition)
Management
ISBN:
9780134237473
Author:
Stephen P. Robbins, Mary A. Coulter, David A. De Cenzo
Publisher:
PEARSON