A manager is trying to decide whether to buy one machine ortwo. If only one machine is purchased and demand provesto be excessive, the second machine can be purchased later.Some sales would be lost, however, because the lead timefor delivery of this type of machine is 6 months. In addition,the cost per machine will be lower if both machines are pur-chased at the same time. The probability of low demand isestimated to be 0.30 and that of high demand to be 0.70. Theafter-tax NPV of the benefits from purchasing two machinestogether is $90,000 if demand is low and $170,000 if demandis high.If one machine is purchased and demand is low, the NPV is$120,000. If demand is high, the manager has three options:(1) doing nothing, which has an NPV of $120,000; (2) subcon-tracting, with an NPV of $140,000; and (3) buying the secondmachine, with an NPV of $130,000.a. Draw a decision tree for this problem.b. What is the best decision and what is its expected payoff?

Understanding Business
12th Edition
ISBN:9781259929434
Author:William Nickels
Publisher:William Nickels
Chapter1: Taking Risks And Making Profits Within The Dynamic Business Environment
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A manager is trying to decide whether to buy one machine or
two. If only one machine is purchased and demand proves
to be excessive, the second machine can be purchased later.
Some sales would be lost, however, because the lead time
for delivery of this type of machine is 6 months. In addition,
the cost per machine will be lower if both machines are pur-
chased at the same time. The probability of low demand is
estimated to be 0.30 and that of high demand to be 0.70. The
after-tax NPV of the benefits from purchasing two machines
together is $90,000 if demand is low and $170,000 if demand
is high.
If one machine is purchased and demand is low, the NPV is
$120,000. If demand is high, the manager has three options:
(1) doing nothing, which has an NPV of $120,000; (2) subcon-
tracting, with an NPV of $140,000; and (3) buying the second
machine, with an NPV of $130,000.
a. Draw a decision tree for this problem.
b. What is the best decision and what is its expected payoff?

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