A local toy manufacturer has three different mechanisms that can be installed in a doll that it sells. The different mechanisms have three different setup costs (overheads) and variable costs and, therefore, the profit from the dolls is dependent on the volume of sales. The anticipated payoffs are as follows: Light Demand Moderate Demand Heavy Demand Probability 0.25 0.45 0.3 Wind-up action $325,000 $190,000 $170,000 Pneumatic action $300,000 $420,000 $400,000 Electrical action -$400,000 $240,000 $800,000 What is the ultimate objective in the use of decision trees to product design? How is this objective accomplished? Draw the decision tree. What is the EMV of each decision alternative? Which action should be selected

A local toy manufacturer has three different mechanisms that can be installed in a doll that it sells. The different mechanisms have three different setup costs (overheads) and variable costs and, therefore, the profit from the dolls is dependent on the volume of sales. The anticipated payoffs are as follows: Light Demand Moderate Demand Heavy Demand Probability 0.25 0.45 0.3 Wind-up action $325,000 $190,000 $170,000 Pneumatic action $300,000 $420,000 $400,000 Electrical action -$400,000 $240,000 $800,000 What is the ultimate objective in the use of decision trees to product design? How is this objective accomplished? Draw the decision tree. What is the EMV of each decision alternative? Which action should be selected

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 30P

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	Light Demand	Moderate Demand	Heavy Demand
Probability	0.25	0.45	0.3
Wind-up action	$325,000	$190,000	$170,000
Pneumatic action	$300,000	$420,000	$400,000
Electrical action	-$400,000	$240,000	$800,000