3. The research department of the Allied Manufacturing Company has developed a new process that it believes will result in an improved product. Management must decide whether or not to go ahead and market the new product. The new product may be better than the old or it may not be better. If the new product is better and the company decides to market it, sales should increase by $120,000. If it is not better and they replace the old product with the new product on the market, they will lose $50,000 to competitors. If they decide not to market the new product they will lose $30,000 if it is better, and research costs of $20,000 if it is not. (a) Prepare a payoff matrix. (b) If management believes the probability that the new product is better to be .3, find the expected profits under each strategy and determine the best action.

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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3. The research department of the Allied Manufacturing Company has
developed a new process that it believes will result in an improved
product. Management must decide whether or not to go ahead and
market the new product. The new product may be better than the
old or it may not be better. If the new product is better and the
company decides to market it, sales should increase by $120,000. If it
is not better and they replace the old product with the new product
on the market, they will lose $50,000 to competitors. If they decide
not to market the new product they will lose $30,000 if it is better,
and research costs of $20,000 if it is not.
(a) Prepare a payoff matrix.
(b) If management believes the probability that the new product is
better to be .3, find the expected profits under each strategy and
determine the best action.
Transcribed Image Text:3. The research department of the Allied Manufacturing Company has developed a new process that it believes will result in an improved product. Management must decide whether or not to go ahead and market the new product. The new product may be better than the old or it may not be better. If the new product is better and the company decides to market it, sales should increase by $120,000. If it is not better and they replace the old product with the new product on the market, they will lose $50,000 to competitors. If they decide not to market the new product they will lose $30,000 if it is better, and research costs of $20,000 if it is not. (a) Prepare a payoff matrix. (b) If management believes the probability that the new product is better to be .3, find the expected profits under each strategy and determine the best action.
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