Applications and Investigations in Earth Science (9th Edition)
Applications and Investigations in Earth Science (9th Edition)
9th Edition
ISBN: 9780134746241
Author: Edward J. Tarbuck, Frederick K. Lutgens, Dennis G. Tasa
Publisher: PEARSON
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222 Copyright @2016 Pearson Education, Inc. Lab 17 · Simulating Climate Change Radiative Forcing Natural processes also may influence the radiation budget. Volcanoes spew sulfur gases that react chemically and block solar radiation. Irrespective of such blocking, evidence suggests that solar output varies through time. Figure 17-3 shows the estimated radiative forcing (relative to 1850) from well-mixed greenhouse gases, stratospheric Changes in greenhouse gases affect Earth's radia- tion budget. Specifically, they alter radiative forcing, or the change in net radiation at the tropopause. (Recall that net radiation is the difference between incoming and outgoing radiation measured in Wm².) Radiative forcing typically is expressed as a tropopause net radiation change relative to a particular reference year. A positive forcing (an increase in net radiation) tends to warm the troposphere, while a nega- tive forcing (a decrease in net radiation) tends to cool it. When we consider radiative forcing from greenhouse aerosols (from volcanoes), solar variability, and tropo- spheric aerosols. Each line represents a different forcing; the bars represent a single, distinct forcing. gases, we must also consider forcing from other factors. For example, fossil fuel burning releases not only greenhouse gases to the troposphere, but also sulfate aerosols, which can reflect solar radiation. Figure 17-2 summarizes the 2. In Figure 17-3, label which forcing is represented by the bars and label each of the three lines with the ap- propriate forcing. Explain why you chose each. state of knowledge about anthropogenic (human-caused) radiative forcing from 1750 (pre-industrial times) through 2011. Data are from the 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report. 3. Describe and explain the apparent relationship be- tween greenhouse gas forcing and tropospheric aero- sol forcing. Scientists are more certain about the radiative forcing of some variables in Figure 17-2 than others. The uncertainty associated with aerosols, for example, is much higher than that of well-mixed greenhouse gases. A summary bar in Figure 17-2 is labeled “Total anthropogenic." It is shown with whiskers to indicate the 90 percent confidence inter- vals around the best estimate of total radiative forcing due to human activities since 1750. 3.5 3.5 2.5 - 2.5 1.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -0.5. E-0.5 -1.5 -1.5 -2.5. E-2.5 -3.5 -3.5 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Figure 17-3. Radiative forcing estimates for greenhouse gases, stratospheric aerosols, solar variability, and tropospheric aerosols. Copyright 02016 Pearson Education, Inc. 223 Radiative forcing (watts per square meter)
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Transcribed Image Text:222 Copyright @2016 Pearson Education, Inc. Lab 17 · Simulating Climate Change Radiative Forcing Natural processes also may influence the radiation budget. Volcanoes spew sulfur gases that react chemically and block solar radiation. Irrespective of such blocking, evidence suggests that solar output varies through time. Figure 17-3 shows the estimated radiative forcing (relative to 1850) from well-mixed greenhouse gases, stratospheric Changes in greenhouse gases affect Earth's radia- tion budget. Specifically, they alter radiative forcing, or the change in net radiation at the tropopause. (Recall that net radiation is the difference between incoming and outgoing radiation measured in Wm².) Radiative forcing typically is expressed as a tropopause net radiation change relative to a particular reference year. A positive forcing (an increase in net radiation) tends to warm the troposphere, while a nega- tive forcing (a decrease in net radiation) tends to cool it. When we consider radiative forcing from greenhouse aerosols (from volcanoes), solar variability, and tropo- spheric aerosols. Each line represents a different forcing; the bars represent a single, distinct forcing. gases, we must also consider forcing from other factors. For example, fossil fuel burning releases not only greenhouse gases to the troposphere, but also sulfate aerosols, which can reflect solar radiation. Figure 17-2 summarizes the 2. In Figure 17-3, label which forcing is represented by the bars and label each of the three lines with the ap- propriate forcing. Explain why you chose each. state of knowledge about anthropogenic (human-caused) radiative forcing from 1750 (pre-industrial times) through 2011. Data are from the 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report. 3. Describe and explain the apparent relationship be- tween greenhouse gas forcing and tropospheric aero- sol forcing. Scientists are more certain about the radiative forcing of some variables in Figure 17-2 than others. The uncertainty associated with aerosols, for example, is much higher than that of well-mixed greenhouse gases. A summary bar in Figure 17-2 is labeled “Total anthropogenic." It is shown with whiskers to indicate the 90 percent confidence inter- vals around the best estimate of total radiative forcing due to human activities since 1750. 3.5 3.5 2.5 - 2.5 1.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -0.5. E-0.5 -1.5 -1.5 -2.5. E-2.5 -3.5 -3.5 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Figure 17-3. Radiative forcing estimates for greenhouse gases, stratospheric aerosols, solar variability, and tropospheric aerosols. Copyright 02016 Pearson Education, Inc. 223 Radiative forcing (watts per square meter)
Name: Date: Lab 17 Simulating 1/ Climate Change Scan to view the Pre-Lab Video for this lab. http://goo.gl/cv)NU Introduction Few weather and climate topics currently generate more political debate than the issue of human-induced, or anthropogenic, climate change. In this lab, we explore how human activities have influenced atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and the methods and challenges to linking such concentrations to historic and future climate change. Objectives After completing these exercises, you should be able to: Explain the historic link between greenhouse gas emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, and temperature change Apply the concept of feedbacks to specific examples of climate change Describe the range of temperature changes projected by climate models and the assumed emissions scenarios and climate sensitivity that produces these changes Describe the correlation between ENSO events and average global temperature Emissions and Concentrations 1. IFCO, concentrations continued to increase at a rate Perhaps the least controversial part of this story is that human activities release carbon dioxide (CO,) and other greenhouse gases, and that concentrations of CO, have steadily increased since regular measurement began in 1958 (Figure 17-1). The rate of atmospheric CO, increase of 2 ppm per year, what would be the approximate concentration by the year 2050? exceeds that seen in the long-term ice core record and has a chemical "fingerprint" that links it largely to the burning of fossil fuels. Further evidence shows that two possible natural sources of CO,-oceans and vegetation-actually have taken up CO, during this period. Without this, atmo- spheric CO, concentrations would be even higher. Copyright ©2016 Pearson Education, Inc. 221
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Transcribed Image Text:Name: Date: Lab 17 Simulating 1/ Climate Change Scan to view the Pre-Lab Video for this lab. http://goo.gl/cv)NU Introduction Few weather and climate topics currently generate more political debate than the issue of human-induced, or anthropogenic, climate change. In this lab, we explore how human activities have influenced atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and the methods and challenges to linking such concentrations to historic and future climate change. Objectives After completing these exercises, you should be able to: Explain the historic link between greenhouse gas emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, and temperature change Apply the concept of feedbacks to specific examples of climate change Describe the range of temperature changes projected by climate models and the assumed emissions scenarios and climate sensitivity that produces these changes Describe the correlation between ENSO events and average global temperature Emissions and Concentrations 1. IFCO, concentrations continued to increase at a rate Perhaps the least controversial part of this story is that human activities release carbon dioxide (CO,) and other greenhouse gases, and that concentrations of CO, have steadily increased since regular measurement began in 1958 (Figure 17-1). The rate of atmospheric CO, increase of 2 ppm per year, what would be the approximate concentration by the year 2050? exceeds that seen in the long-term ice core record and has a chemical "fingerprint" that links it largely to the burning of fossil fuels. Further evidence shows that two possible natural sources of CO,-oceans and vegetation-actually have taken up CO, during this period. Without this, atmo- spheric CO, concentrations would be even higher. Copyright ©2016 Pearson Education, Inc. 221
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