2 Consider the two investments listed below with possible outcomes and probabilities: INVESTMENT (in $1000) SAFE RISKY INVESTMENT+ AMOUNT 40€ 40€ GOOD SCENARIO OUTCOME 45 80+ AVERAGE SCENARIO PROB OUTCOME 0.40 0.40€ 42° 45° BAD+ SCENARIO PROB OUTCOME 0.20€ 0.20 35€ 10€ PROB 0.40€ 0.40€ a) Suppose I have utility function U(*) = (x)². What is the expected utility from each investment? b) Which investment will I choose, if any? Show and explain your work and provide the intuition. c) What is the value of the risk premium for the SAFE investment? Show and explain your work and provide the intuition. d) What is the value of the risk premium for the RISKY investment? Show and explain your work and provide the intuition. P 13 P
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- 2. Alice believes that her car would cost £12500 to replace if it was stolen or damaged. Based on crime statistics for the area she lives in, she believes that the probability of her car being stolen or damaged is 0.15. (i) Alice's utility function is given by U(w) = ln(w) for w > 0 and she as £35000 in the bank. Calculate how much Alice would be prepared to pay (in a single payment) to insure her car against theft or damage (ii) Repeat the calculation in the previous part but now assume Alice has £500000 in the bank.6. Are the following utility functions consistent with the axioms of the expected utility theorem? Everything is in monetary terms. (a) u(x) = = -x. (b) u(x) = x² for a E (-10, 10]. (c) u(x) = 5. %3DEconomics Shawn's consumption is subject to risk. With probability 0.75 he will enjoy 10000 in consumption, but with probability 0.25 he will have only 3600. His utility function for consumption is given by v(c) = Vc. -What is the expected value of Shawn's consumption? -What is his expected utility? -What is his certainty equivalent of having 10000 with probability 0.75 and 3600 with probability 0.25?
- 3. Consider a home energy storage (battery) system that can store up to 2 units of energy. At every time step, there is a demand for energy in the home which is drawn from 0,1,2 units with equal probability independent of the demands in the previous time steps. At every point in time, you have to satisfy the demand either by discharging the needed energy from the battery or purchasing power from the grid (or a combination of the two). You could also choose to purchase power from the grid to charge your battery. The grid energy price is either H(igh) or L(ow) according to a Markov chain (Price moves from H to L with probability p, and from L to H with probability q). (a) Model the decision making as an infinite horizon MDP where the objective is to minimize the discounted cost of energy purchased over an infinite horizon. (b) Write down a policy a of your choosing. Perform two steps of the operator T, for your policy, followed by one step of T..6) Leia has $11,000 and she wants to invest in financial market. There are two types of assets. The first one guarantees 0.1 percent return next year. The second one is a risky asset which will yield 0.5 percent return in good times and 0.4 percent of loss in bad times. Suppose the chance of good and bad times is half-half and Leia's utility function is U(Y) = Y 0.5 %3D a). What is the expected utility if she invest in the first asset? b). What is the expected utility if she invest in the second asset? Will Leia chooses the first or the second asset? c). Suppose that Leia can purchase a financial insurance which cost her $100 and cover all her lost when bad times happen. Will she purchase this insurance?3. Further questions Now, imagine that Port Chester decides to crack down on motorists who park illegally by increasing the number of officers issuing parking tickets (thus, raising the probability of a ticket). If the cost of a ticket is $100, and the opportunity cost for the average driver of searching for parking is $12, which of the following probabilities would make the average person stop parking illegally? Assume that people will not park illegally if the expected value of doing so is negative. Check all that apply. 13% 21% 9% 10% Alternatively, the city could hold the number of officers constant and discourage parking violations by raising the fine for illegal parking. Suppose the average probability of getting caught for parking illegally is currently 10% citywide, and the average opportunity cost of parking is, again, $12. The fine that would make the average person indifferent between searching for parking and parking illegally is 5 park illegally if the expected value of…
- Hello can any one help with this Economics question: A contractor spends Dollar 3,000 to prepare for a bid on a construction project which, after deducting manufacturing expenses and the cost of bidding, will yield a profit of dollar 25,000 if the bid is won. If the chance of winning the bid is ten per cent, compute his expected profit and state the likely decision on whether to bid or not to bid?Utility Theory You live in an area that has a possibility of incurring a massive earthquake, so you are considering buyingearthquake insurance on your home at an annual cost of $180. The probability of an earthquake damagingyour home during one year is 0.001. If this happens, you estimate that the cost of the damage (fully coveredby earthquake insurance) will be $160,000. Your total assets (including your home) are worth $250,000. A. Apply Bayes’ decision rule to determine which alternative (take the insurance or not) maximizes yourexpected assets after one year.1. A standard model of choice under risk is Expected Utility Theory (EUT) in which preferences over lotteries that pay monetary prizes (x₁, x2, ..., xs) with probabilities (P1, P2, ..., Ps) with Eps = 1 are represented by the function L S (a) What does it mean to say that a function represents the consumer's prefer- ences? Σpsu(xs) Choice 1 8=1 (b) State and briefly comment on the axioms required for the EUT representation. (c) Consider the following experiment of decision making under risk in which sub- jects are asked which lottery they prefer in each of the following two choices: Lottery B 0 with prob. 0.01 10 with prob. 0.89 50 with prob. 0.10 Lottery D Choice 2 Lottery A 0 with prob. 0 10 with prob. 1 50 with prob. 0 Lottery C 0 with prob. 0.90 10 with prob. 0 50 with prob. 0.10 Suppose that the modal responses are Lottery A in Choice 1 and Lottery D in Choice 2. Assume that utility of zero is equal to zero and illustrate why it is not possible to reconcile these experimental…
- 1. Jerry has wealth of $60 and derives utility from this according to the utility function U(w) = 1 - -, Where w is his wealth. Jerry now finds a lottery ticket (whose drawing is tomorrow) that offers a 50% chance of winning $5. (a) What is the expected value of the lottery ticket? (b) What is the minimum amount for which Jerry would be willing-to-sell the ticket? (c) Which is bigger, your answer to (a) or (b)? Use a clearly labelled diagram to explain why. (d) If he does not sell the ticket, what is Jerry's cost of risk?1. Now, imagine that Port Chester decides to crack down on motorists who park illegally by increasing the number of officers issuing parking tickets (thus, raising the probability of a ticket). If the cost of a ticket is $100, and the opportunity cost for the average driver of searching for parking is $12, which of the following probabilities would make the average person stop parking illegally? Assume that people will not park illegally if the expected value of doing so is negative. Check all that apply. A. 9% B. 18% C. 17% D. 10% 2. Alternatively, the city could hold the number of officers constant and discourage parking violations by raising the fine for illegal parking. Suppose the average probability of getting caught for parking illegally is currently 10% citywide, and the average opportunity cost of parking is, again, $12. The fine that would make the average person indifferent between searching for parking and parking illegally is ____ , assuming that people will not…6. An analyst is assessing a DM's utility function for profit Y, in dollars, ranging from -400,000 to 2,000,000, and wishes to use a function: U(Y) : = Y+400,000 B 2,400,000 9 -400,000 ≤ y ≤ 2,000,000 She determined that the DM is indifferent between Alternative A and Alternative B: Alternative A: Probability 0.5 of making profit $2,000,000 Probability 0.5 of making profit -$400,000 Alternative B: Probability 1.0 of making profit of $800,000 (a) What would you use for the DM's utility function? Show your work. 6 (b) Why could you use Expected Value when analyzing problems involving profit for this DM?