12.4. The chairperson of the department of management at Techwants to forecast the number of students who will enroll in operationsmanagement next semester in order to determine how many sectionsto schedule. The chair has accumulated the following enrollment datafor the past eight semesters:Students EnrolledSemesterin OM1270231025042903706.41074008.450a. Compute a three-semester moving average forecast forsemesters 4 through 9.b. Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast (a = .20) forthe enrollment data.c. Compare the two forecasts using MAD and indicate the mostaccurate.3.

Answered: 12.4. The chairperson of the department…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter12: Queueing Models

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 59P

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Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.
Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?
Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?
Calculate MSE for the 4 periods for which the actual and forecasted number of customers given in the table below: Forecasted Actual Number Period Number of Error of Customers Customers 1 1,975 2,000 2 2,050 2,025 3 1,925 1,975 4 2,075 2,025 390.63 37.5 6,250 True1,562.5
1. Solve manually. The following gives the number of pints of type A blood used at Woodlawn Hospital in the past 6 weeks. Pints Used 360 Week August 31 September 7 September 14 September 21 September 28 389 410 381 368 October 5 374 a. Forecast the demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average. b. Use a 3-week weighted moving average, with weights of 0.1, 0.3 and 0.6, using 0.6 for the most recent week. Forecast demand for the week of October 12. c. Compute the forecast for the week of October 12 using exponential smoothing with a forecast for August 31 of 360 and c=0.2. d. Compute the MAD for the 3-week moving average, 3-week weighted moving average and exponential smoothing models above.
1. Discuss the use of forecasting in short and long-term decisions relating to capacity 2. Analyse the importance of various quality measures in operations management
Sarah has been custom manufacturing sweaters now for 7 years. Her annual sales are shown below. Year Sales 1 178 2 215 3 233 4 301 5 337 6 330 7 361 What are her forecasted sales for year 8 using a 5 year weighted average where w1=.4, w2=.3, w3=.15, w4=.1, w5=.05? What are her forecasted sales for year 8 using exponential smoothing? Assume year 7 forecast was 323. Select your own alpha. Which forecast method is the best for Sarah to use based on MAD? Why?
10:48 Done Chapter 3 Assignment i Help Save & Exit Submit Check my work mode: This shows what is correct or incorrect for the work you have completed so far. It does not indicate completion. 14 1.66 points Mc Graw Hill P
12.2 The manager of the I-85 Carpet outlet needs to be able to forecast accurately the demand for Soft Shag carpet (its biggest seller). If the manager does not order enough carpet from the carpet mill, customers will buy their carpets from one of the outlets many competitors. The manager has collected the following demand data for the past 8 months. Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Demand for Soft Shag Carpet (1000 yd) 5 10 6 8 14 10 9 12 a. Compute a three-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9.
The following gives the number of pints of type Bblood used a t Woodlawn Hospital in the past 6 weeks: a) Forecast the dema nd for the week of October 12 using a3-week moving average.b) Use a 3-week weighted moving average, with weights of .I , .3,and .6, using .6 for the most recent week. Forecast demand forthe week of October 12.c) Compute the forecast for the week of October 12using exponentialsmoothing with a forecast for August 31 of 360 and a = .2
2. A major airline uses an airport in a large city as a hub for its connecting flights. Each day the airline faces a number of claims from its passengers who lost their baggage. The number of lost baggage claims in the last 14 days have been 67, 25, 57, 58, 35, 29, 77, 44, 38, 36, 23, 69, 53, and 45 a. Use moving average method with N = 3 to forecast the expected number of claims for tomorrow. b. Use exponential smoothing method with parameter α = 0.7 to forecast the number of lost baggage claims that the airline should expect in the next 2 days. c. If the criterion for accuracy is the mean squared error (MSE), which of the forecasting methods in parts (a) and (b) are preferred? d. If you become in charge of providing forecasts for the number of claims in the next 2 days using exponential smoothing method, what would be your point and 90-percent prediction interval forecasts for the number of claims in each of the next 2 days? Use MSE as your evaluation criterion.
Sarah has been custom manufacturing sweaters now for 7 years. Her annual sales are shown below. Year Sales 1 178 2 215 3 233 4 301 5 337 6 330 7 361 What are her forecasted sales for year 8 using a 3 year moving average? What are her forecasted sales for year 8 using a 5 year weighted average where w1=.4, w2=.3, w3=.15, w4=.1, w5=.05? What are her forecasted sales for year 8 using exponential smoothing? Assume year 7 forecast was 323. Select your own alpha. Which forecast method is the best for Sarah to use based on MAD? Why?

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