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- Many decision problems have the following simplestructure. A decision maker has two possible decisions, 1 and 2. If decision 1 is made, a sure cost of c isincurred. If decision 2 is made, there are two possibleoutcomes, with costs c1 and c2 and probabilities p and1 2 p. We assume that c1 , c , c2. The idea is thatdecision 1, the riskless decision, has a moderate cost,whereas decision 2, the risky decision, has a low costc1 or a high cost c2.a. Calculate the expected cost from the riskydecision.b. List as many scenarios as you can think of thathave this structure. (Here’s an example to get youstarted. Think of insurance, where you pay a surepremium to avoid a large possible loss.) For eachof these scenarios, indicate whether you wouldbase your decision on EMV or on expected utilityThe injured football player Bad news everyone! There is 1 second left in the game, and Tom Brady has injured himself. The matrices below depict the relative probabilities of winning givenan offensive and a defensive play call. (The row player is the New England Patriots and the column player is the opponent.) How much has the all star's home team probability of winning decreased due to the injury? Pass uny Patriots D Pass .4, .6 D Run .9,.1 .8,.2 .5,.5 Pass Run Opponent D Pass D Run .06, .94 .32, .68 .8,.2 .5,.5Consider a worker who works for at most two periods (say, when young and when old) at a particular firm. Each period, the worker can choose between exerting high effort and exerting low effort. The worker's cost of exerting high effort are Cy when young and Co when old. The worker's cost of exerting low effort are zero. The effort of the worker is difficult to observe by the firm. With probability T, the firm observes the worker's effort at the end of a period. With the remaining probability, the firm does not observe the worker's effort. The firm can only fire the worker when it observed that the worker has shirked. In that case, the firm is also allowed to withhold the worker's wage for the period in which the worker was caught shirking. When exerting high effort, the worker's productivity is q, when young and q, when old. When exerting low effort, the worker's productivity is zero. The worker's value of alternative job opportunities is when young and v, when old. For simplicity, the…
- Bob earn 60,000 a year and an accounting firm each year he receives Reyes Bob has determined that the probability that he receives a 10% raise is .7 the probability that he earns a 3% raise is .2 and the probability that he earns a 2% raise is .1 a competing company has offered Bob a similar position for 65,000 a year Bob wonders if he should take the new job or take his chances with his current job. a. Find the mathematical expectation of the dollar amount of his raise at his current job b.14 of 17 Attractive conditions in America such as better wages, new technology, and bigger living quarters that would cause one to immigrate to the United States are known as Opull factors. Oliabilities. Ⓒassets. Ⓒpush factors Previous Q Search - 0 2According to the Intern al Revenue Service, the mean tax refund for the year 2014 was $2800 Assu me the stan dard devlation I6 $450 an d that the amounts 1etunded follow a normal probability distribution. a. What percont of the refunde aro more th an $3,100? (Round the Intermediate velues to 2 decimal places. Round your answer to 2 decimal places) Percert 0.25 % b. What percent of the refun ds are more th an $3,100 but less th an $3.500? (Round the intermediete values to 2 dec imal places Round your ans wer to 2 decimal places) Peroert c. What percent of the retun ds are more th an $2,250 but less than $3.500? (Round the inter mediate val ues to 2 decimal places Round your answer to 2 decimal places) Peroart
- You and a coworker are assigned a team project on which your likelihood or a promotion will be decidedon. It is now the night before the project is due and neither has yet to start it. You both want toreceive a promotion next year, but you both also want to go to your company’s holiday party that night.Each of you wants to maximize his or her own happiness (likelihood of a promotion and mingling withyour colleagues “on the company’s dime”). If you both work, you deliver an outstanding presentation.If you both go to the party, your presentation is mediocre. If one parties and the other works, yourpresentation is above average. Partying increases happiness by 25 units. Working on the project addszero units to happiness. Happiness is also affected by your chance of a promotion, which is depends on howgood your project is. An outstanding presentation gives 40 units of happiness to each of you; an aboveaverage presentation gives 30 units of happiness; a mediocre presentation gives 10 units…1. A dealer decides to sell a rare book by means of an English auction with a reservation price of 54. There are two bidders. The dealer believes that there are only three possible values, 90, 54, and 45, that each bidder’s willingness to pay might take. Each bidder has a probability of 1/3 of having each of these willingnesses to pay, and the probabilities for each of the two bidders are independent of the other’s valuation. Assuming that the two bidders bid rationally and do not collude, the dealer’s expected revenue is approximately ______. 2. A seller knows that there are two bidders for the object he is selling. He believes that with probability 1/2, one has a buyer value of 5 and the other has a buyer value of 10 and with probability 1/2, one has a buyer value of 8 and the other has a buyer value of 15. He knows that bidders will want to buy the object so long as they can get it for their buyer value or less. He sells it in an English auction with a reserve price which he must…a. Consider the Oakdale Furniture Company described in the given problem. Under what circumstances might the major portion of the usage of the glue be predictable?b. If the demand were predictable, would you want to use a probability law todescribe it? Under what circumstances might the use of a probability model of demand be justified even if the demand could be predicted exactly?
- 9. The probability of a woman having a baby boy is 50% and that of having a girl is also 50% What is the probability that a woman who has three children will have three boys? of T. 10. Lebo has 3 blue pens, 2 red pens, 5 black pens and 2 pencils in his pencil case. a. What is the probability that he takes a black pen? b. What is the probability that he takes an item that is not a black pen? 11. One card is drawn from a deck of 52 cards. What is the probability that the card will be a. red or an ace? b. a king of hearts? Samsung Quad Camera Shot with my Galaxy. A2.1s10. Calculate a joint probability given data: -Sample of 9000 firms. 6000 have CEO with Bachelor's degree, 2300 have CEO with Master's Degree, 700 have CEO with Ph. D. Find probability that a randomly selected CEO has a Bachelor's Degree or a Ph. D.1. Consider you toss two dices separately, and you get whatever the number above the dice. You know that the first dice is fair, but there is a 0.30 probability that outcome will be 6, and 0.30 probability that outcome will be 1 in the second dice. Each of the other outcomes has a probability 0.10 for the second dice. Which dice has the higher variance?
