1. The profit payoff table below showing profit for a decision problem with four states of nature and four decision alternatives are presented below; State of Alternative Nature A1 A2 A3 A4 S1 41 45 30 40 S2 32 38 45 35 S3 51 42 50 31 S4 51 35 34 37 a. Recommend a decisions using the criteria below; i. Maximim criterion i. Maximac criterion Hurwick criterion (a =0.70) Laplace criterion Minimim criterion (EOL Table) ili. iv. V. b. Assume the probabilities for each state of nature are knows, (S1-0.3, S2-D0.2, S3%3D0.3 and S4-0.2). Find the best alternative with EMV and EOL table. c. Based on the results above, which alternative is the best altenative? Why?
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- Seneca Hill Winery recently purchased land for the purpose of establishing a new vineyard. Management is considering two varieties of white grapes for the new vineyard: Chardonnay and Riesling. The Chardonnay grapes would be used to produce a dry Chardonnay wine, and the Riesling grapes would be used to produce a semidry Riesling wine. It takes approximately four years from the time of planting before new grapes can be harvested. This length of time creates a great deal of uncertainty concerning future demand and makes the decision concerning the type of grapes to plant difficult. Three possibilities are being considered: Chardonnay grapes only; Riesling grapes only; and both Chardonnay and Riesling grapes. Seneca management decided that for planning purposes it would be adequate to consider only two demand possibilities for each type of wine: strong or weak. With two possibilities for each type of wine it was necessary to assess four probabilities. With the help of some forecasts in…Seneca Hill Winery recently purchased land for the purpose of establishing a new vineyard. Management is considering two varieties of white grapes for the new vineyard: Chardonnay and Riesling. The Chardonnay grapes would be used to produce a dry Chardonnay wine, and the Riesling grapes would be used to produce a semidry Riesling wine. It takes approximately four years from the time of planting before new grapes can be harvested. This length of time creates a great deal of uncertainty concerning future demand and makes the decision concerning the type of grapes to plant difficult. Three possibilities are being considered: Chardonnay grapes only; Riesling grapes only; and both Chardonnay and Riesling grapes. Seneca management decided that for planning purposes it would be adequate to consider only two demand possibilities for each type of wine: strong or weak. With two possibilities for each type of wine it was necessary to assess four probabilities. With the help of some forecasts in…What information does a decision maker need in order to perform an expected-value analysis ofa problem? What options are available to the decision maker if the probabilities of the states ofnature are unknown? Can you think of a way you might use sensitivity analysis in such a case?
- DAAPS A decision maker has prepared the following payoff table. 1 States of Nature Alternative High Low Buy 80 10 Rent 60 45 Lease 50 40 Using the Maximin criterion, what is the best decision and the expected payoff? Best decision PayoffAnswer A.2 a-e a-c is in the picture here is d and e d) What is the qually likely decision? e) Develop a decision tree. Assume each outcome is equally likely, then find the highest EMV.7. Consider the following decision table, which Joe Blackburn has developed for Vanderbilt Enterprises: States of Nature Decision Alternatives Probability: 0.35 0.25 0.40 Low Medium High A $35 $80 $65 B $85 $50 $70 C $55 $70 $75 D $70 $85 $65 E $70 $75 $85 Part 2 The alternative that provides Blackburn the greatest expected monetary value (EMV LOADING... ) is ▼ D E A B C The EMV for this decision is $_______(enter your answer as a whole number).
- b) Perform Goal Seek Analysis in Excel, Technique of Model Driven Decision Support System. Using goal seek analysis technique of Model Driven Decision Support System, predict the number of pizza to be sold in a day to achieve the total income of Rs 272000/= while excluding all expenses like cost per Pizza (RS. 1000), salary per person (Rs. 1000 per day) we have 3 employees, shop rent per day (Rs. 2000) and 5% Tax. Price of a pizza is fixed to Rs 2500. Formulas on answer sheet as well.The following payoff table shows the profit for a decision problem with two states of nature and two decision alternatives. Decision Alternative State of Nature $1 d₁ d₂ (a) Suppose P(s₁) = 0.2 and P(5₂) = 0.8. What is the best decision using the expected value approach? The best decision is --?-- with an expected value of 12 $₂ 6 3 5 (b) Perform sensitivity analysis on the payoffs for decision alternative d₂. Assume the probabilities are as given in part (a), and find the range of payoffs under states of natures, and so that will keep the solution found in part (a) optimal. As long as the payoff for s₁ under d₁ is --?-- , then the solution found in part (a) will be optimal. then the solution found in part (a) will be optimal. As long as the payoff for s₂ under d₁ is --?-- Is the solution more sensitive to the payoff under state of nature s₁ or 5₂? O $₁ 0 5₂The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): Decision State of Nature Alternative Low Demand (S1) Medium Demand (S2) High Demand )S3) Manufacture, d(1) -20 40 100 Purchase, d(2) 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P s1= 0.35, P s2= 0.35, and P s3= 0.30 Use expected value to recommend a decision.
- 3. The manager for a manufacturing company must recommend whether to construct a large plant, construct a small plant or do nothing. He estimates the long-run profits in $ as follows: State of Nature Alternative Good Average Poor Market($) Market ($) Market ($) Construct a 100,000 35,000 -60,000 large plant Construct a 75,000 25,000 -40,000 small plant Do nothing -5,000 0 0 Probability 25% 50% 25% Solve using: A. Expected Opportunity Loss B. Expected Value of Perfect InformationLetz Products has two decisions to make, with the second decision dependent on the outcomeof the first. The company intends to build a new plant. Letz has the option of conducting itsown marketing research survey for which the results will either be positive or negative. Theinformation from this survey could help it decide whether to build a large plant, to build a smallplant, or not to build at all. Letz recognizes that although such a survey will not provide it withperfect information, it may be extremely helpful. Using the image explain to your client (Letz) what the above decision tree shows. You arerequired to show all working.S9. A Co-operative bank QLB grants loansunder the following conditions. -(a) If customer has an account witbank and has no loan outstandingwill be granted.(b) If customer has an account with thebank but some amount is outstandingfrom previous loan, then loan will begranted if special arrangementapproval is obtained.(c) Reject loan applications in all other cases. Draw Decision Tree and Table for the bank . This under System Analysis and Design.