1. Find the forecasting results based on each year (1991-1995) using the simple linear regression. 2. Find the forecasting results based on each year using the overall average (1991- 1995). 3. Calculate the MSE for each forecasting and for each method, and explain which forecasting is the best. 4. Calculate the Theil's U-Statistic for each forecasting, and explain which forecasting is the best. 5. Compare 3 and 4 above.

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Author:Amos Gilat
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Solve 4,5 and 6
1. Find the forecasting results based on each year (1991-1995) using the simple
linear regression.
2. Find the forecasting results based on each year using the overall average (1991-
1995).
3. Calculate the MSE for each forecasting and for each method, and explain which
forecasting is the best.
4.
5. Compare 3 and 4 above.
6. Interpret the results.
Calculate the Theil's U-Statistic for each forecasting, and explain which
forecasting is the best.
Transcribed Image Text:1. Find the forecasting results based on each year (1991-1995) using the simple linear regression. 2. Find the forecasting results based on each year using the overall average (1991- 1995). 3. Calculate the MSE for each forecasting and for each method, and explain which forecasting is the best. 4. 5. Compare 3 and 4 above. 6. Interpret the results. Calculate the Theil's U-Statistic for each forecasting, and explain which forecasting is the best.
Table 2-2: Monthly Australian X production from January 1991 to August 1995.
Month
January
February
March
*
1991
164
152
April 144 150 154 126 127
May 155 129 137 131 151
June 125 131 129 125 130
July 153 145 128 127 119
August 146 137 140 143 153
September 138 138 143 143
October 190 168 151 160
November 192 176 177 190
December 192 188 184 182
☆
1992
147
133
163
1993
139
143
150
1994
151
134
164
1995
138
136
152
Transcribed Image Text:Table 2-2: Monthly Australian X production from January 1991 to August 1995. Month January February March * 1991 164 152 April 144 150 154 126 127 May 155 129 137 131 151 June 125 131 129 125 130 July 153 145 128 127 119 August 146 137 140 143 153 September 138 138 143 143 October 190 168 151 160 November 192 176 177 190 December 192 188 184 182 ☆ 1992 147 133 163 1993 139 143 150 1994 151 134 164 1995 138 136 152
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