lending market and its aftermath reflects K&A paradigm: format should be to explain the KAM model, then identify the initial dislocation triggering the bubble,Describe the Aliber-paradigm. Explain utilizing the housing bubble that has occurred in the past 8 years. Also explain your position on the bubble housing crisis. Describe the stages of the bubble for the aliber-paradigm. Using the paradigm to explain problems in stock market and housing bubble burst.
The Leir Center For Financial Bubble Research
Working Paper #1
THE KINDLEBERGER-ALIBER-MINSKY PARADIGM AND THE GLOBAL SUBPRIME MORTGAGE MELTDOWN
William V. Rapp, The New Jersey Institute of Technology, United States, rappw@adm.njit.edu
ABSTRACT
This paper analyzes the current
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Further as the KAM paradigm predicts, the subprime mortgage meltdown and its aftermath have brought numerous civil and criminal actions. For example, mortgage fraud in the US, including Federal and state prosecution, is growing dramatically. Suspicious activity reports related to mortgage fraud increased over 1000% between 1997 and 2005 and pending FBI mortgage fraud investigations rose from 436 in fiscal 2002 to 1210 in fiscal 2007 (Grant, 2008). The huge increases in the US mortgage market and its increasing complexity have opened many attractive opportunities for fraudsters across a range of financial activities and institutions. The most common frauds involve “property flipping” or other schemes to get proceeds from mortgages or property sales via misleading appraisals or false documentation. The SEC is also looking at insider trading related to unexpected write-downs by publicly traded companies with assets tied to mortgage-backed securities. Further plaintiffs’ lawyers and their clients have been active in making other claims such as misrepresentation or failure to disclose materials information, trying to recover some of the billions of dollars in losses.
However, to grasp the subprime bubble and meltdown in its development, subsequent crash and current aftershocks, one must first understand the key changes that occurred in the financial markets for
The real estate industry is thriving with approximately sixty-eight percent of all Americans being homeowners. With low interest rates, 1st time home buyer down payment assistance programs, and government funded educational opportunities (i.e. the Home Ownership Center of Greater Cincinnati), the real estate and mortgage lending industries will continue to flourish. However, there are some unethical lending practices that are threatening the housing industry as a whole.
Michael Hudson tells the stories of victims with many compelling storied who were tricked into signing up for risky high-cost loans, as well as the greedy lenders who scarified the lives of their victims to gain as much money and power as they could. Hudson begins his story with an explanation of deregulation and the resulting emergence of subprime mortgage lending firms in California. Roland Arnall was a pioneer of the S&L industry, and Hudson traces how Arnall’s lending operations grew into the nation’s biggest subprime lending empire, Ameriquest.
The regulation that I have chosen for this paper is amendment in the Regulation X i.e. “Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act” and Regulation Z which is for “Truth in Lending”, for establishing the new disclosure requirements and forms in Regulation Z for the most closed-end consumer credit transactions secured by the real property. This regulation is controlled by the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection. The role of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is to provide consumers information related to the terms of their agreements with financial companies during their application for a mortgage, choosing among credit cards, or using any number of other consumer financial products. The mortgage market is the single largest market for the consumer of financial products and the services in the United States, with approximately $10.4 trillion in loans outstanding. Since last decade, market went through an unprecedented cycle of the expansion and the contraction that was fuelled in the part by securitization of mortgages and the creation of increasingly sophisticated derivative products. This led to the collapse of financial system in 2008 and sparked the most severe recession in United States.
Mortgage fraud is one of the costliest, yet seldom prosecuted crimes in the criminal world. CoreLogic estimates approximately $13 billion in fraud losses occurred in 2012, according to the latest available data in the 2012 Mortgage Fraud Trends Report (Gerding, 2013). While these numbers may seem high, the approximate $13 billion in losses is only a fraction of what it would be if every case were to be prosecuted. Mortgage fraud was also a major contributing factor towards a national, and nearly global economic collapse in 2008 when the United States economy saw the worst recession it has seen since the great depression. Anyone that has seen the films “99 homes” starring Andrew Garfield and Michael Shannon or “The Big Short” starring Christian Bale and Ryan Gosling has seen a largely realistic glimpse of mortgage fraud and how devastating it can be.
In the lead up to the current recession, when the real estate market began to fall, there were so many investors shorting stocks and securitized mortgage packages that were already falling, that the market simply fell further. There were no buyers at the bottom, and the professional investors made millions off of the losses of others. Beyond this, there was no real federal regulation for securitized mortgages, since there was no real way to gauge the mathematical risk of any given package. This allowed the investors to take advantage of the system and to short loans on real people’s homes. Once these securities were worthless, many of the homebuyer’s defaulted on their mortgages and were left penniless. No matter from which angle this crisis is looked at, the blame rests squarely with the managers who began the entire cycle, the ones who pursued the securitization of mortgages. Their incompetence not only led to the losses of Americans who have never invested in the stock market, but to losses for their shareholders.
The ‘sub-prime’ crisis triggered by the meltdown of the US mortgage backed-securities market in 2007 was a precursor to the global financial crisis. It would drastically change the competitive landscape for all firms in the financial services sector, including Campbell and Bailyn (C&B), one of the world’s five largest investment banks.
The U.S. subprime mortgage crisis was a set of events that led to the 2008 financial crisis, characterized by a rise in subprime mortgage defaults and foreclosures. This paper seeks to explain the causes of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and how this has led to a generalized credit crisis in other financial sectors that ultimately affects the real economy. In recent decades, financial industry has developed quickly and various financial innovation techniques have been abused widely, which is the main cause of this international financial crisis. In addition, deregulation, loose monetary policies of the Federal Reserve, shadow banking system also play
The beginning of the crisis: From the early to the mid-2000’s, high-risk mortgages became available from lenders who funded mortgages by repackaging them into pools that were sold to investors. New financial products were used to apportion these risks, with private-label mortgage-backed securities providing most of the funding of subprime mortgages. The less
Since the housing market bust, there has been an explosion in the number of federal investigation of mortgage fraud scheme across the country. Mortgage Fraud is a violation of state and
Mortgage fraud - Misrepresentation of loan application data and mortgage fraud are other contributing factors. US Department
Housing prices in the United States rose steadily after the World War II. Although some research indicated that the financial crisis started in the US housing market, the main cause of the financial crisis between 2007 and 2009 was actually the combination of housing bubble and credit boom. The banks created so much loan that pushed the housing price to the peak. As the bank lend out a huge amount of money, the level of individual debt also rose along with the housing price. Since the debt rose faster than people’s income, people were unable to repay their loan and bank found themselves were in danger. As this showed a signal for people, people withdrew money from the banks they considered as “safe” before, and increased the “haircuts” on repos and difficulties experienced by commercial paper issuers. This caused the short term funding market in the shadow banking system appeared a
The housing market crash, which broke out in the United States in 2007, was caused by high risk subprime mortgages. The subprime mortgage crisis resulted in a sudden reduction in money and credit availability from banks and other lending institutions, which was referred to as a “credit crunch.” The “credit crunch” and its effect spread across the United States and further on to other countries across the world. The “credit crunch” caused a collapse in the housing markets, stock markets and major financial institutions across the globe.
Besides, low interest rates and large inflows of foreign funds created easy credit conditions for years before the crisis and that simulated the boom in housing construction (Steverman and Bogoslaw, 2008). Moreover, easy credit and money inflow greatly contributed to U.S housing bubble and the rise of house’s price.
One of the first indications of the late 2000 financial crisis that led to downward spiral known as the “Recession” was the subprime mortgages; known as the “mortgage mess”. A few years earlier the substantial boom of the housing market led to the uprising of mortgage loans. Because interest rates were low, investors took advantage of the low rates to buy homes that they could in return ‘flip’ (reselling) and homeowners bought homes that they typically wouldn’t have been able to afford. High interest rates usually keep people from borrowing money because it limits the amount available to use for an investment. But the creation of the subprime mortgage
Another New York Times tells that financial institutions that are dependent on mortgages, like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have not been able to pay back the money they owe to the federal government.2 They are still asking for more money because of the continuing real estate crisis. Instead of simply giving these mortgage giants money to stay afloat, the federal government would be more effective if it were to support them by putting the money directly towards the root of the problem.