Group Paper Analysis, Team 4
4/22/2010
Victoria Chemicals (B) Group Case Study
Introduction Victoria Chemicals’ Intermediate Chemicals Group (ICG) is evaluating two mutually exclusive proposals on their capital expenditures. The Liverpool and Rotterdam plants have compiled separate proposals. Each proposal had the potential to increase the polypropylene output by 7 percent for their plant respectively. Victoria Chemicals could not view a 14 percent increase companywide being feasible, but agreed half of it would. The board would approve only one of the projects. James Fawn must support one proposal and then submit it to the board for consent.
Background of Firm
Victoria Chemicals, a major competitor in the worldwide
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The four measures were net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), the payback period and increases in earnings per share (EPS). Other strategic factors must be considered that are not reflected in the financial tests. James Fawn and his ICG analyst team must decide which project is the best value for the short-term and the long-term. Utilizing these financial hurdles and contemplating other strategic factors, Victoria Chemicals will choose the project that will give the firm the most value.
Constraints on Solution In order to keep up with the competition, Victoria Chemicals must make changes to its business strategy. The project that is accepted must meet several criteria that the board has set based on performance measures. The projects are ranked as engineering efficient proposals. The addition to net income of the project must be positive and therefore increasing earnings per share. The net present value of the project’s free cash flows must be positive, and the internal rate of return must be greater than 10 percent, and the payback period for the project must be less than six years. The transport division will have to increase allocation to Merseyside. The proposal will generate excess capacity for the division and will increase the demand of new tank cars. The costs generated for these cars would cost GBP2 million and have a depreciable life of 10
As the November Meeting approaches, CFO Doug Scovanner is faced with the problem of choosing which of the five controversial projects available to accept. Our task is to assume this role and evaluate each of the projects based upon two major criteria. The first is determining the firm’s financial motives by quantifying the projected value added to the firm and the risk associated with each project. When determining to accept or reject projects based upon adding value, the most helpful instruments we have are Net Present Value (NPV) and the
The first project proposal is Match My Doll Clothing line expansion consisted of expanding matching doll and child’s clothing and accessories. The second project proposal is Design Your Own Doll by creating customizable “one of a kind” doll features through the company’s website. The project selection criteria would base on quantitative and qualitative analysis. The quantitative analysis would base on the evaluation of discounting cash flow forecasts to determining the Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and the Payback period of each proposed project. The qualitative analysis would include the potential project value of the company’s overall strategy, innovation, key project risks, and the project interdependencies to the whole company.
In this memo I will be making a recommendation for or against the Merseyside Project. With the help of a few questions that guide my memo, I will be able to determine whether or not to continue funding for the Merseyside Project. This memo will include an exhibit that will show an analysis of the Merseyside Project including the NPV and the IRR. In the DCF analysis that was provided in the case I have made a few changes to it and that will be presented later in my memo. First I will like to talk about how Diamond Chemicals evaluate its capital expenditure proposals.
• Will Need a New Tank Car to anticipated growth of the firm in other
The Transport Division believes that the cost of tank cars should be included in initial outlay of Merseyside Works capital programme. The director of ICG sales thinks that the recession will reduce the demand for polypropylene, and thus lead to an excess supply of polypropylene. To combat this, the firm will shift capacity from Rotterdam to Merseyside, and Merseyside will cannibalize Rotterdam.
2. Net Present Value – Secondly, Peter needs to investigate the Net Present Value (NPV) of each project scenario, i.e. job type, gross margin, and # new diamonds drills purchased. The NPV will measure the variance of the present value of cash outflow (drilling equipment investment) versus the future value of cash inflows (future profits), at the benchmark hurdle rate of 20%. A positive NPV associated with the investment means that the investment should be undertaken as it exceeds the minimum rate of return. A higher NPV determines which project scenario will have the highest return on cash flow, hence determining the most profitable investment in terms of present money value.
Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis of factors such as the cost of raw materials, selling price per unit and capacity utilization demonstrates that a small change in any one of these variables could have a major impact on the project’s bottom line. In Appendix B, I examine a scenario in which the selling price per unit decreases by 1% and the cost of raw materials per unit increases by 1% at the outset of the project. In this scenario, the resulting NPV changes from a positive $5.4 million to a loss of $666,000, and the IRR falls below the discount rate to 9.15%. This, to me, reveals that the potential upside of this project is not large enough to account for discrepancies due to imprecise projections, flawed assumptions, or unforeseen risks.
We valued the company using four different methods; Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, Modified Internal Rate of Return and Profitability Index. We began with the Net Present Value, or NPV, calculation. NPV values an investment’s profitability based on the projected future cash inflows and outflows of the investment, discounted back to present value using the WACC. The calculations for NPV are presented in Appendix 2. We started by separating cash inflows and outflows by each year. We used Bob Prescott’s estimates for the revenue per year and related operating costs of cost of goods sold as
However, the polypropylene industry is a fiercely competitive industry that has a cyclical business cycle with periods of strong sales and periods of oversupply that would lower the overall price that polypropylene could be sold for. To account for worries of oversupply and its effect on price, it is necessary to find the variable cost of producing. After finding Victoria Chemicals variable cost of producing, the variable costs of all other producers can be obtained. As can be seen in Exhibit 1, the current variable cost of producing at Victoria Chemicals is GBP 597.38 per ton. The variable cost of producing is highest for the next ten largest plants at GBP 652.19 per ton with a market share of 21%. It is highly unlikely that these
Return on Investment (ROI): An examination of ROI financial analysis and its historical roots with the DuPont Company
Evaluating the risks, calculating the probability of success, and factoring in the projected profit from sales will provide a clearer NPV to be compared with other projects in the
Finally, in order to complete a more accurate comparison between the two projects, we utilized the EANPV as the deciding factor. Under current accepted financial practice, NPV is generally considered the most accurate method of predicting the performance of a potential project. The duration of the projects is different, one lasts four years and one lasts six years. To account for the variation in time frames for the projects and to further refine our selection we calculated the EANPV to compare performance on a yearly basis.
The Modified Internal Rate of Return is an underused measure for selection of projects that a company can choose because it is more effective at dealing effectively with periodic free cash flows that develop from the time that an asset is purchased through its life to the point where it is sold, ranking projects and variable rates of return through the project life. The Internal Rate of Return is an inefficient model to make decisions with because it lack the ability to account for the periodic free cash flows, proper ranking and variable returns from certain projects.
NTGR was analyzed in this study based on a five year average for years 2009 through 2013 as provided by Investing (Investing, 2014). The objective of the financial analysis is to review and assess NTGR’s position in the market and the strategy required to be successful and maintain its financial health. Financial ratios are often used by companies and investors to evaluate competitors, industry, internal goals and to assess a company’s financial status (Inc., n.d.). Financial ratios are determined by dividing one financial entry by another based on a specific period of time. Additionally, the organizational structure will be reviewed to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of management and the correlation with profits. The key ratios that will be reviewed will include profitability, liquidity, and growth. Based on the competitors chosen, two with larger market shares and one with a smaller market share, we will first analyze the gross profitability, the ratio of gross profits versus net sales, indicating the effectiveness of a company’s marketing strategy or manufacturing abilities.
In order to analyze the proposal we compared the financial benefits for Axeon to support product manufacturing in the UK versus the Netherlands. See exhibits 1 and 2 for cash flow comparisons including financial summary.