Year ahead – More of the same with a few more bumps
Summary o 2017 was another year full of surprises – equity markets globally are much stronger than most expected o Tax reform/cuts, while not loved by everyone, will produce stronger earnings growth for U.S. corporations and leave extra money in consumers’ pockets o Strong earnings growth in the U.S. and internationally, paint a positive backdrop for equity markets in 2018 o More volatility for stocks and a much needed pullback in 2018 – we believe the pullback will be brief and a buying opportunity o Increasing calls for the end of the cycle – we disagree o The rebound in oil prices is a positive for the U.S. economy, not a negative o Fed will continue to raise rates in 2018 o Large
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economy. The consumer is benefiting from a strong jobs market, stock prices are at record highs, a rebound in home prices and subdued inflation. We would argue that the consumer hasn’t been this healthy in decades. Corporate America is also on sound footing and will continue to benefit from the synchronized global rebound.
Tax reform
The prospect of tax reform has definitely helped push equity markets higher this year and may do the same next year as well. Tax reform will drive high earnings for corporations and leave consumers with more money. We view this as a secondary reason for our optimism, not the main driver for high stock prices.
How long can the run last
This is the number one question we continue to get. Our focus remains on the underlying health of the economy in the U.S. and globally, as well as earnings growth and both are improving at accelerating rates. Barring any unforeseen events we expect 2018 will be another positive year for equities both in the U.S. and globally and believe the expansion could continue for the foreseeable future.
Volatility
One thing we do expect more of in 2018 is volatility. We have experienced a record period of calm in the equity markets over the past 18 months. On average the S&P 500 experiences three five percent corrections and one ten percent correction annually. We won’t be surprised by a five to ten percent
"They discounted a lot of positive growth effects of tax reform package," Huffman said of the recent analysis. "That's one government analysis, granted what some folks would call 'mainstream.' History proves that tax reform — tax cuts specifically — they grow the federal revenue. Why? Businesses make more money and people have larger paychecks and they are putting more into the economy."
In Washington Irving's short story "The Devil and Tom Walker," the protagonist, Tom Walker, is described as a "meagre, miserly" fellow who conspires to cheat his wife—who is equally as meagre and miserly as he is! Together, they live in an austere home, where they regularly fight over material things. Tom is also described as not being "troubled with any fears"; his cavalier attitude and arrogance result in him coming face to face with the devil himself, Old Scratch, who offers him great wealth in exchange for his soul. Tom's contrary disposition causes him to decide that he won't sell his soul simply because his wife wants him to do so. Despite this, Tom winds up entering into the bargain, which further illuminates his greed, vanity, and stinginess.
Based on the general indicator it would seem as though in the short term the economy is growing from the recession with a high level of real GDP growth of 5%. However, with the continuously increase in oil price may hold the overall economy from going well as expected. Moreover, the exchange rate for both UK and Canada that continuously appreciate against US may affect consumption by consumer and the operation of the company.
The US economy has recovered considerably from the great financial crisis of 2008. We are currently in the seventh year of expansion, and the overall performance of the economy has been satisfactory. Most economic indicators have improved dramatically, and some of them are at the best level since then. A significant recovery in home prices, GDP, labor market, stock markets, auto sales, and consumer spending have fostered the economic growth and restored the confidence of market participants.
Paper Matches by Paulette Jiles is a poem used to describe the presence of sexism as well as the existence of gender roles in society during the World War II Era. This is demonstrated in the overarching scenario within the poem in which the women are expected to do certain things and perform particular tasks while the men do as they please. In the middle of the poem, the speaker uses a metaphor to illustrate how women were not taken seriously during this time period. After questioning why the women were doing the chores while the men were outside playing, the speaker’s metaphor describes her current perspective on her situation; I have the rages that small animals have, being small, being animal.”
However, raising taxes on the rich and corporations is not as helpful to our economy as most people think. Although raising taxes on the top percent of people and companies appears to create more income for the government, the result will make it harder for middle class and lower class citizens to grow. Some argue that by combining several key changes, including the simplification of the tax code to avoid loopholes and the decrease of taxes on the rich and corporations, there will be an improvement in the national economy. Although this may seem a bit counterintuitive, it makes more sense when looked at closely. By lower taxes and remove all loopholes, smaller businesses are given further opportunities to grow instead of facing financial roadblocks and government
The United States is not only one of the largest economies in the world, but it is also one of the strongest economies compared to industrialized countries, and this has been proven in the last few years. Despite of what many people believe or see, U.S economy is booming and it will continue to boom during the year 2015. In the article “When the U.S Economy is the Envy of the World,” published by the MSNBC on December 8, 2014, its author Steve Benen argues about the U.S economic recovery in order to persuade U.S citizens and show them the numbers that prove that our economy has recovered. Benen (2014) also encourage U.S citizens not “to compare the current economic recovery to other recoveries that followed modern downturns,” but “to compare our economic recovery against other countries who dealt with similar circumstances” because according to President Obama, the U.S “has put more people back to work” than any advanced economy in the world (qtd. in Benen, 2014). There are strong evidences that prove that the U.S economy is in its best year compared to three years ago. The growth of jobs, the slight increase of wages, and the low price of oil have truly helped the U.S economy recover.
With the recent election of Donald J. Trump as president of the United States has also come with it changes in the stock market. One stock in particular that has benefited from this result is Caterpillar. Many of the plains outlined in Trumps campaign included improvements to infrastructure, less regulations on mining and energy production, and the wall that is said to be constructed along the U.S Mexico border. This has caused an increased interest in this company as its products or products similar to these products will be required in the construction of these projects. In anticipation for these projects investors have responded by purchasing Caterpillar stock. It appears as though investors believe that it is indeed a good time to own stock
The United States is the leading economy across the globe and experienced several tribulations in the recent past following the 2008 global recession. Despite these recent challenges, there are expectations among policymakers and financial experts that the country will experience solid economic growth. Actually, financial analysts have stated that the U.S. economy will be characterized by increased consumer spending, increased investments by businesses, reduced rate of unemployment, and reduction in government cut. Some analysts have also stated that the country’s economy will strengthen in 2014 with an average of 2.7 percent or more. However, these predictions can only be understood through an analysis of the current macroeconomic
The unemployment level is at an all-time low. The economy is strong. The stock market is breaking new records. Investors are buying stocks by the handful. Corporations are making extremely
Our economy has gone down hill since Barack Obama stepped into office in the year of 2008. Our newly elected president, Donald J. Trump, has shown through his economic plan that he will bring back jobs and cut taxes drastically for everyone. In all, these major changes towards our economy will make America great
As mentioned, the U.S. economy has seen a positive shift in the last few years. According to Janet Yellen (the Chairman of the Fed), "the private sector has created 7.8 million jobs since the post-crisis low for employment in 2010." Additionally, housing seems to have turned a corner in which construction, home prices are all up significantly, and as I mentioned earlier, housing was a large sector that was impacted during the Great Recession and the loss was staggering ("The U.S. Economy"). Another area that we are seeing tremendous growth is within the auto industry. The auto industry has made an incredible comeback with domestic production and sales back to near pre Great Recession levels. Our economy today is showing the unemployment levels down from a peak of ten percent, and has reached the point of full employment once again. According to Jared Bernstein of the New York Times, "Last month the national unemployment rate fell from 5.9 to 5.8 percent" thus showing that we are back to full employment according to what I have been taught in class, though I am finding some dispute over what numbers should be considered full employment. Nevertheless, our economy is showing a real growth in helping fellow Americans get back to work. In addition to unemployment decreasing we are also seeing a decrease in inflation. According
Analyzing Apple’s stock price movement for the past three years, there has been a steady upward trend in the past one and a half years, from August 2007 to December 2008. The MACD began to move erratically from April 2008 onwards which suggests that the trading environment is growing more unpredictable with investors’ confidence changing momentum more drastically. This could be due to the looming global economic crisis. From the graphs below, one positive note is that Apple’s stock price consistently outperforms the market indices—the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and NASDAQ. In the long run, Apple’s stock is expected to rise tentatively in this volatile trading environment. Should this trend hold strong, we would recommend a buy option as the prices are on an upward sloping trend.
The story of 2017 for the AUD was a positive one, as amidst global political uncertainty, it remained strong and gave forex traders plenty of food for thought as it were. It should be a case of more of the same during 2018, as the combination of low back-end yields, low inflation, and solid global growth will help the AUD’s cause.
The US development will be a positive astonishment in 2016. We trust that worldwide value markets have gone sufficiently far to reuse chance, and the likelihood of subsidence is much lower than the market desires. Truth be told, we believe that because of a noteworthy diminishment in 2016, US development will be astonished in view of financial specialists' desires. We keep up that worldwide development will be quieted, however positive When oil still tries to discover at the base, we trust that vitality markets will be solidified from mid-to-late