The Unemployment And Output Statistics

From what is supposedly being shown in papers and on the news the U.S. economy is currently concerned about unemployment, caused by the recession. This “current macroeconomic situation” is pardoning my language freaking a lot of individuals out, because some have no idea of how it is going to get better. The news/media is not painting us such a pretty picture of it, by calling it “this decade’s depression”. The unemployment rate is at 8.2% as of July 2012, whereas the average in 1948 was at 5.6%.

Americans are revolting in the primaries by either voting for Trump or supporting Sanders because they don’t believe the American economy is fine. Unemployment is at an eight-year low but labor force participation is down. There has been six years of uninterrupted growth but at a pace that won’t close the economy’s output gap until 2026. Wage growth is getting higher but not by much. Statistics like these explain why the 2007 – 2009 recession is still present in the electoral scene.

Ever since September 11, 2001, the vitality of America’s economy has never been the same. Aside from America already going through a recession since, the attacks by Islamic terrorists on American soil had escalated the situation in one of the worst ways possible. The purpose of this paper will highlight the issues regarding America’s recession and its overall impact on the economy.

Beginning with unemployment in the 2007-2009 recession, U.S. unemployment rates peaked at 10% as well as held 41 consecutive months at rates higher than eight percent (Lazear 1). The U.S. economy plummeted during this time; many attributed the shift to a large decrease in the number of employed workers. To be able to better understand the unemployment issue, we must first examine the form of unemployment faced by the U.S. economy. Many believe that the changes faced by the U.S. labor market

The unemployment rate averaged 8.5% in 1975, almost 10% in 1982, and has been above 8.8% for more than two years, with little evidence of any improvement ahead.”

In the United States the economy is currently in a recession, although signs are indicating that the economy is slowly recovering. In an effort to analyze the Unites States economy the unemployment rate, expectations, consumer income, and interest rates have been evaluated. The results of these evaluations are included in this report.

From December 2007 to June 2009 the United States economy was confronted with its greatest challenge since the Great Depression. The financial crisis was so great that it was coined the term the Great Recession. Many factors contributed to the collapse of the U.S economy; such as, the financial crisis (2007–08), U.S. subprime mortgage crisis (2007–09), a shrinking Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate and unpresented unemployment rates. A recent (2016) article in the Wall Street Journal entitled “Post-Recession Rethink: Growth Potential Dimmed Before Downturn” examines the economic aftermath of the Great Recession.

Educating oneself about the economy is a rigorous task seeing as it has several different aspects to it. Unemployment and the related topics in the chapter sparked an interest within me. Fortunately, I was able to find an article that covered this topic in a state I’ve come to love- California. The article, “California adds 54,200 jobs in May; unemployment rate ticks up to 6.4%”, provides visual representation of the data stated and provides quotes and opinions from people among the Californian population. This produces additional support for the article. The fact that the situation is occurring in California, along with visual representations, gave reason for my decision in choosing this article.

In this paper, you will read about the current standing of the U.S. economy as of spring and summer for 2015. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), unemployment rate, inflation rate, foreign trade, consumer spending, business investment, and government spending will all be analyzed. This analysis will then lead to the projection of the U.S. economy for the first two quarters of 2016.

Ever since World War II the United States has experienced many recessions. There have been many terrible recessions that have hit this great country hard. What is a recession people may wonder? A recession is a significant decline in activity across the economy, lasting longer than a few months. It is visible in industrial production, employment, real income and wholesale-retail trade. The technical indicator of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by a country 's gross domestic product (GDP). Although, the recession of 2001 wasn’t a dramatic and horrible recession, it was the end of the longest expansion our country had seen since WWII. The expansion following the recession of 1991 was 10 years up until this recession of 2001. Furthermore, this recession was difficult and was hard to deal with and overcome, because during the time of this recession our country experienced 9/11.

The United States economy experienced a recession starting in December 2007 and ending in June 2009 as reported by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The employment market was directly impacted as evidenced by the growth in unemployment rate. Employers reduced staffing to cut costs and protect profit margins. In doing so, employers combined approximately 2-3 worker’s positions into one, shifting the required skills and values into one all-encompassing position.

The more Americans employed means we as a nation are experiencing economic growth. However, if there is a high unemployment rate this interprets that more Americans are struggling in our economy. There are several types and reason for high unemployment. Though America’s unemployment rate was 5.6%, as of December 2014, every state’s unemployment rate varies for different reasons. America’s unemployment rate has a direct negative impact on our entire nation’s economy and affects individual firms, organizations, and people.

The latest FOMC statement indicates that the economy is expanding at a constant pace, with increases in employment alongside GDP growth. The US economy expanded more than expected in the third quarter of 2014, with real GDP increased 3.9 percent, surpassing the forecasted 3.5 percent, despite slowing down from a 4.6 percent increase in the previous quarter. The increase in real GDP was contributed by higher than expected increases in consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports ("News Release: Gross Domestic Product"). Unemployment has continued to decrease for the third consecutive month in October, with a drop from 5.9 percent to 5.8 percent, the lowest in the past 6 years since its 10 percent peak in 2009 ("Employment Situation Summary"). However, the rate is still below 4.7 percent before the recession. According to the National association for Business Economics, Real GDP is forecasted to expand further, and the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 5.4 percent by the end of 2015 ("NABE - NABE Outlook December

The United States is currently experiencing a slow recovery from the recession of 2008-09. The current unemployment rate is 7.7%, which is the lowest level since December of 2008 (BLS, 2012). However, this rate is believed to higher than the rate that would occur if the economy was operating at peak efficiency, and it is also believed that there are structural issues still underpinning this performance. For example, the number of Americans who have exited the work force as the result of prolonged unemployment is believed to be higher than usual. In addition, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO, 2012) notes that long-term unemployment of greater than 26 weeks is at a much higher rate than normal, which will have adverse long-run effects on the economy, since workers with long-term unemployment often find their career paths derailed.

I will first discuss the unemployment trend from 1988 to 2010 using the article by Marios Michaelides and Peter R. Mueser titled Recent trends in the characteristics of unemployment insurance recipients. They wrote that, “ Data from the Benefit Accuracy Measurement (BAM) program indicated that important changes in the composition of the unemployment insurance (UI) population took place from 1988 through 2010; changing shares, by gender, race and ethnicity, age, education, industry, and occupational status, reflected changes in the composition of the unemployment and in the UI takeup rate”. Their article also wrote that “[Their] [f]ocusing on the composition of the UI population by major demographic and job characteristics—gender, race and ethnicity, age, education, industry, and occupational status—it uses data from the BAM program, established by the U.S. Department of Labor to monitor calculations of UI eligibility and the provision of benefits by states.” I will use these trends to show how they relate to Mississippi in the O-S-R-O-R model because even though their focus was on the United States as a whole certain aspects relate to Mississippi and its recent trends on unemployment and its benefits.