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The History Of The Syrian Conflict

Decent Essays

While working on the Syrian problem set earlier this year, I, like many DoD analysts, was alarmed by the relatively sudden appearance of Chinese military assets off the Syrian coastline in August of 2016. This marked a considerable departure from China’s long-held policy of non-intervention and its predilection for negotiated political solutions in the Middle East.
In August of 2016, the government of China announced its intention to provide personnel, training, and humanitarian aid to the government of Syria. (US Dept. of State, 2016) This is surprising, since the Chinese government has long held a non-interventionist policy in the Middle East, stressing the need to respect national sovereignty. However, in May of 2016, Beijing supported …show more content…

Hypotheses
The root of Chinese involvement in the Syrian conflict is its need for energy. China’s own economic development requires massive imports of oil and natural gas. (EIA, 2015; Li, 2016) For this reason, it has a considerable stake in regional economic development and reconstruction.
China chose to get publicly involved in the Syrian conflict only recently because the outward appearance of nonintervention gave Beijing an opportunity to solidify its relationship with the regional players outside of the conflict. Also, China was likely waiting until the fight looked sufficiently one-sided that it could safely choose the Assad regime as the eventual winner, while hedging its bets with an overt, if transparently cynical, policy of non-interventionism. This allowed Beijing to overtly keep its hands off the conflict and, in the longer game, appear a friend to whatever government evolves in Syria at the cessation of hostilities.
China is definitely moderating its long-held non-interventionist policy due to energy concerns, and this marks a turning point in its relations with the Middle East going into 2020 and beyond. China’s energy dependence trumps its historical non-interventionism as the root cause of Chinese military involvement in the Syrian conflict.

Observations
China has an energy dependence problem that dwarfs that of the United States forty years

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