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The Concept Of Market Timing

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In this chapter, we introduce the concept of market timing, and discuss various market timing models in the literature. According to Admati, Bhattacharya, Pfleiderer and Ross (1986), the superior performance of an investment is due to either the manager’s selection ability or timing ability or the combination of the two abilities. Marketing timing is a type of dynamic asset allocation strategy that adjusts a portfolio’s market exposure that is based on the manager’s forecast about the market (Admati et al., 1986; Chen, 2007; Chen and Liang, 2007). Therefore, the managers who have successful timing ability can increase portfolios’ market exposure before a market rise and decrease portfolios’ market exposure prior to a market fall. …show more content…

Hedge fund managers can change their portfolios’ asset allocation freely because of the relatively less regulatory regime. By using leverage, short sales and various types of arbitrage investments, it is easier to generate abnormal returns with timing strategy for hedge funds than it is for mutual funds. With the fast growth during the past two decades, hedge funds have provided a fruitful environment for the investigation of active portfolio management and managers advertise themselves as skilled market timers to investors (Chen, 2007). We examine the timing ability of hedge fund managers for several reasons. First, hedge funds are managed by highly talented managers. Therefore, it is curious to know whether these managers have the timing skill to deliver superior performance. Second, hedge funds are exempted from the Investment Company Act of 1940. They are more likely to show market timing skills with dynamic investment strategies that lead to time-varying market exposure (Fung and Hsieh, 1997, 2001; Patton and Ramadorai, 2013). Furthermore, Agarwal and Naik (2004) reveal that hedge fund returns are option-like because of dynamic investment strategies. Market timing that requires hedge fund manager to adjust market risk exposure based on forecasts will generate call-option-like payoffs. Third, hedge funds can invest in various markets, which increases the chance for managers to exhibit market timing

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