-------------------------------------------------
Statistical analysis of the relation between Crime Rate, Education and Poverty: USA, 2009
Sonarika Mahajan
100076
Research Question
In this research paper, analysis is done to conclude whether the level of education and poverty influence the total crime rate in the United States of America. Using descriptive statistics such a mean, standard deviation, variance, histograms, scatter diagrams and simple linear regression analysis performed upon both independent variables separately, it can be analysed till what extent do these two independent variables, i.e. education and poverty cause fluctuations upon the dependent variable, in what proportion (direct or inverse) and of the two independent
…show more content…
Whereas, poverty shows a positive skewness value of .670 since its variables have numerous high values, which justifies the right skewness of the histogram.
Simple linear regression model:
a. Crime and Education -
Y = Dependent variable, Crime
X = Independent variable, Education.
The regression model is the equation that describes how y is related to x.
This regression equation is:
From Table 2.4 in appendix, the regression equation is,
Crime = 6.17 - 2.9 (Education)
This regression equation can be graphed as follows assuming β0 as the intercept and β1 as the slope:
Here the slope β1 is negative.
Interpretation of the slope: For every 1% increase in the number of students being graduated from high school, there is a decrease of 2.9% in crime activities in the USA.
Interpretation of the intercept: Even if there is no variation in the education level, the estimated crime rate would be 6.17%.
The coefficient of determination or r2: It determines the proportion of variation in the dependent variable by the independent variable.
From Table 2.2, r2 = .181
This states that 18.1% of the variation in crime rate is explained by regression of education on crime. Since this value is not close to 1, it doesn’t seem to be a appropriate predictor to determine the crime rate in USA.
Hypothesis testing:
Ho: β1 = 0 (education is not a useful predictor of crime)
Ha: β1 ≠ 0 (education is a useful predictor of crime)
17 In regression analysis, the coefficient of determination R2 measures the amount of variation in y
* Correlation coefficient (R-squared) – This represents how well the independent variables (X) explain the response variable (Y).
When it relates to violent crimes, specifically murder, the level of poverty in a city has been shown to be a contributing factor. According to (Horton, 2002), in his research comparing the rate of poverty to the rate of homicide, he found that there was a correlation between the two. In his article he talked about how those who fall under the poverty line tend
In chapter 4 the chapter considers a variety of possible explanations for the significant drop in crime and crime rates that occurred in the 1990s. Based on articles that appeared in the country’s largest newspapers, the authors compile a list of the leading, commonly offered explanations. The next step is to systematically examine each explanation and consider whether available data support the explanation. What the authors, in fact, demonstrate is that in all but three cases–increased reliance on prisons, increased number of police, and changes in illegal drug markets–correlation was erroneously interpreted as causation and in some cases, the correlation wasn’t even that strong.
This paper explores the relationship between low income and violent crime rate in Unite State over some period of time. This question is research is interested in how income inequality increases crime rate. Between 1975 to 2004 research shows that income earned by the top 5% of America families increased from 15.3% to 20.1%. Families that are at the bottom sees their earning dropped from 5.1% to 4.2%. Data used for this research is been collected from bureau of justice statistics (BJS) from national Crime and victimization survey (NCVS), which provide summary statistics based on a nationality representative sample for a wide range of crimes. Data is been collected from household that are below and above poverty level in the country and non-fall violent victimization, but
contributor to crime in the United States is a young, black male living in an
A common theory in criminology and in sociology suggests that class and race are vital roles regional crime rates. Previous research indicates that the distribution of class and race within certain residential areas has a key role in the outcome of certain violent acts. In his study, Income Inequality, Race, and Place: Does the Distribution of Race and Class within Neighborhoods Affect Crime Rates, John R. Hipp states “Specifically, studies have tested how the distribution of economic resources across neighbor-hoods, as measured by income or poverty, affects neighborhood crime rates or the how the distribution of racial/ethnic minority members across neighborhoods, as measured by the percent nonwhite, and so on, affects neighborhood crime rates (Hipp 2007). While one may traditionally assume that minorities neighborhoods yield a more intensive crime rate, this is not necessarily true.
The overall F-test of the relationship between the property crimes committed and the percentage of dropouts, density and residents living in an urban area shows strong evidence that the number of property crimes has a statistically significant relationship to dropouts, density and urban area.
A violent crime occurs every 23.5 seconds in the United States of America. Even though crime has been at a low during the past decade, violence is still prevalent in today’s society. Most of these crimes happen in places that are socio-economically disadvantaged. There then is the debate of whether violent crime is associated with environments struck with poverty. There is a correlation between violent crimes and poverty because of the unemployment rates in major cities, the culture of poor areas, and drugs.
When we get into how society and people look at crime, it happens in every city, every neighborhood, people are victims every day, businesses, and even property. Crime dates back since colonization and the rates have varied over time, believe it or not, crime has decreased over the years. As a matter of fact, the United States has been on a decline. The crime rate for the year 2000 was a total of 11,608,072 a declining year in 2015 with a total of 9,225,197. (U.S. Department of Justice)
Criminal behavior is something that affects everyone, even if you don’t particularly engage in the act itself. Every time a crime is committed, we often find ourselves wondering what led that person to do that crime. We wonder why they did it because it is something that we could never do, so therefor we cannot fathom the act of engaging in criminal activity. Some people feel that people only engage in it just because they lack the thing that they try to steal or because of their specific background and race. In actuality, there is a link between criminal behavior and the lack of education. However there is also a link between the attainment of education and criminal behavior.
• Error values (ε) are statistically independent • Error values are normally distributed for any given value of x
Poverty and the relationship it has to crime is a long standing sociological, humanists and historical phenomenon. From the plight of the third world to the violence soaked inner city streets of the 1980’s, the relationship of crime and poverty has been the source of a great deal of social commentary. In societies throughout the world and throughout history there has always been a traditional measure of deviance through relative income gaps. Both poverty and crime as well as their connections are heavily weighed topics of political and social discourse. Opinions in these areas contain a great deal of variance. The prejudices of the old guard from the professional police era still utilize association with poverty as a measuring stick for social deviance. Meanwhile, intelligent social science continues to give insight to factors such as social disorganization, socialization into violence, as well as, the far reaching impact political, economic and justice based policies have on those in poverty.
The general multiple regression equation is y = a + b1x1 + b2x2 + b3x3 + … + bkxk, where a is the intercept and bk is the coefficient of the independent variable xk.
In this study, we will attempt to examine the relationship, if any, between criminal activity and the unemployment rate. My hypothesis is that higher unemployment leads to higher crime rates. Our belief stems from the fact that the cities in the United States with the highest crime rates all have a poverty level higher than the U.S. average of 15.1%.2 For Example, Detroit had the highest reported violent crime rate of 2,072/100,000 people, with almost 40% of their population living below the poverty level.3