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Relation Between Crime, Poverty and Education in Usa - Using Regression

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Statistical analysis of the relation between Crime Rate, Education and Poverty: USA, 2009

Sonarika Mahajan
100076

Research Question
In this research paper, analysis is done to conclude whether the level of education and poverty influence the total crime rate in the United States of America. Using descriptive statistics such a mean, standard deviation, variance, histograms, scatter diagrams and simple linear regression analysis performed upon both independent variables separately, it can be analysed till what extent do these two independent variables, i.e. education and poverty cause fluctuations upon the dependent variable, in what proportion (direct or inverse) and of the two independent …show more content…

Whereas, poverty shows a positive skewness value of .670 since its variables have numerous high values, which justifies the right skewness of the histogram.

Simple linear regression model:

a. Crime and Education -

Y = Dependent variable, Crime
X = Independent variable, Education.

The regression model is the equation that describes how y is related to x.
This regression equation is:

From Table 2.4 in appendix, the regression equation is,
Crime = 6.17 - 2.9 (Education)

This regression equation can be graphed as follows assuming β0 as the intercept and β1 as the slope:

Here the slope β1 is negative.

Interpretation of the slope: For every 1% increase in the number of students being graduated from high school, there is a decrease of 2.9% in crime activities in the USA.

Interpretation of the intercept: Even if there is no variation in the education level, the estimated crime rate would be 6.17%.

The coefficient of determination or r2: It determines the proportion of variation in the dependent variable by the independent variable.
From Table 2.2, r2 = .181
This states that 18.1% of the variation in crime rate is explained by regression of education on crime. Since this value is not close to 1, it doesn’t seem to be a appropriate predictor to determine the crime rate in USA.

Hypothesis testing:
Ho: β1 = 0 (education is not a useful predictor of crime)
Ha: β1 ≠ 0 (education is a useful predictor of crime)

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