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Political Conflict In Riyadh And Iran

Decent Essays

The latest developments that just unfolded in Riyadh are unsettling and carry a high risk of a regional confrontation. An assertive Saudi crown prince is determined to consolidate power by purging dissidents at home while escalating rhetoric abroad.

Such a diversionary approach, seemingly employed to shift attention away from domestic turmoil, is challenging an emboldened Iranian regime whose armed proxies have been strengthening their hold from the Levant to Yemen. While these circumstances are tantamount to an imminent war scenario between Riyadh and Tehran, there are indications that it might not actually be the case.

On November 4, within the span of few hours, two major events took place: Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri …show more content…

Two Saudi ambassadors in Iraq and Lebanon were appointed last week, showing a willingness to engage. On October 25, Saudi Arabia and Iran finally agreed to have the Swiss government as a go-between for consular and diplomatic services, after breaking off diplomatic ties in early 2016.

Riyadh has returned to Iraq after a long absence, hoping to increase political influence and explore a new market. A military confrontation with Iran is counterproductive to Saudi engagement in Iraq. While in Syria, Saudi Arabia has been keeping a low profile with an influence restricted to elements in the exiled civilian opposition.

Third, a confrontation is not in Iran's interest for now. The Iranian regime, which has been more united since President Hassan Rouhani's reelection in May, is focused on reaping the economic benefits of the nuclear deal and preserving the gains made in Syria.

Mohammad Ali Jafari, commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, announced on October 31 that Iran will be restricting its long-range missiles to 2,000km, which can reach Israel and US interests in the Middle East. The move was meant to reassure European countries that are beyond that missile range.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who visited Tehran on November 1, convinced Tehran to tone down the rhetoric against the US. While Russia is focused on advancing a political solution in Syria, Iran sees that the Syrian war will

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