Managerial Economics Suppose you are the Marketing Manager of Bayer & Company, Ahmedabad, which are the techniques you will apply in forecasting demand of a product yet to be manufactured. The firm must plan for the future. Planning for the future involves forecasting. A forecast is an estimation or prediction about situations which are most likely to occur in near or distant future. No businessman can afford to ignore forecasting if he wants to thrive and prosper in his business. The firm has to forecast the future level of demand for its product under different possible circumstances; such as prices, competition, promotional activities and general economic activity. Similarly forecasting will be necessary with reference to costs …show more content…
A large number of respondents is needed here to be able to generalize certain results. | Quantitative Forecasting Methods There are two forecasting models here – (1) the time series model and (2) the causal model. A time series is a s et of evenly spaced numerical data and is o btained by observing responses at regular time periods. In the time series model , the forecast is based only on past values and assumes that factors that influence the past, the present and the future sales of your products will continue. On the other hand, t he causal model uses a mathematical technique known as the regression analysis that relates a dependent variable (for example, demand) to an independent variable (for example, price, advertisement, etc.) in the form of a linear equation. The time series forecasting methods are described below: Time Series Forecasting Method | Description | Naïve Approach | Assumes that demand in the next period is the same as demand in most recent period; demand pattern may not always be that stableFor example:If July sales were 50, then Augusts sales will also be 50 | Time Series Forecasting Method | Description | Moving Averages (MA) | MA is a series of arithmetic means and is used if little or no trend is present in the data; provides an overall impression of data over timeA simple moving average uses average demand for a fixed sequence of periods and is good for stable demand with no pronounced behavioral
Forecasting should include the use of both quantitative and qualitative approaches to forecast demand for its products.
Planning is a function that is employed by every organization in projecting the future outcome of the firm. Successful firms achieve their goals through the use of different types of budgets. These budgets include, production budget, sales budget, labor budget and expenses budget. These budgets also show the targets that should be achieved by the firm within the budgeted time plan.
* Customer demand: Rather than basing on history and forecast sale of its products, the company should pay more attention in analyzing some uncontrollable factors such as inflation, recession, and currency exchange rate which may affect customers’ buying behavior.
* Forecasting is an impartial strategic ingredient that will ensure apt base for reputable planning. Our forecast is always the first step in developing plans in running the business along with our future plans of growth strategies. With this tool, we are able to anticipate our sales within reason that then can allow for us to control our costs in conjunction with inventory which will then help us to enhance our customer service. Sales forecasting is a vital strategic tactic in our company’s methodology.
The challenge in planning is that planning is essentially forecasting future actions and events. Most
Demand Forecasting – Samuel Adams uses demand forecasting to ensure that their customer gets the best and freshest product available. By forecast how many barrels and cases need to be produced, the company ensures that there will not be an extreme excess once the product is ready expire. Samuel Adams also uses the forecasting technique to determine the amount of their seasonal beers that the company will produce at that time of year. By forecasting, the company can adapt their product for the ever changing tastes of their established customers.
Forecasting is the methodology utilized in the translation of past experiences in an estimation of the future. The German market presents challenges for forecasting techniques especially for its retail segment. Commercially oriented organizations are used to help during forecasting as general works done by academic scientists are not easy to come across (Bonner, 2009).
Before, the concept of demand forecast was to serve the key functional groups in achieving their own interest. Facing the new challenges, forecast needed to be more accurate. And therefore it needed a new concept that is to have a consensus forecasting that would accurately reveal market demand and align the needs of key actors in the forecasting process. Leitax implemented two specific changes in forecasting process. The first one is to switch the focus from sell-in to sell-through and second one is to ignore capacity constraints.
We first predict the annual demand for the year 1972 based on trend for 4 months of 1972 based on corresponding months of 1971.
Aggregate demand forecasting is used by the company because the business is centered around the custom printing of the
The current demand forecasting method is based on qualitative techniques more than quantitative ones. If the forecast is not accurate, the company would carry both inventory and stock out costs. It might lose customers due to shortage of supply or carry additional holding costs due to excess production. If the actual demand doesn’t match the forecast ones, and the forecast was too high, this will result in high inventories, obsolescence, asset disposals, and increased carrying costs. When a forecast is too low, the customer resorts to a competitive product or retailer. A supplier could lose both sales and shelf space at that retail location forever if their predictions continue to be inaccurate. The tolerance level of the average consumer
But even this is not possible in case of a new product or innovation. A forecast of sales, demand, cash, requirements and several such business valuables are extremely essential for a business in order to be able to appropriately plan and conduct its operations in an effective and efficient manner. Yet, forecasts cannot be made accurately as there are several factors and changes in the current environment that leads to variations in forecasts and impacts or causes a manager to make changes in the forecasts.
Forecasting is the art and science of predicting future events. Forecasting is a statement about the future. “Operations management is designed to support forecasted
Planning helps the organisation overcome any future uncertainties and also helps avoid risks associated with business.
We first predict the annual demand for the year 1972 based on trend for 4 months of 1972 based on corresponding months of 1971.