My Search For Confirmation Bias

Confirmation bias is when a person would rather try to confirm or support a hypothesis than try to prove it. For example, in the Wason Task each card is either “E,” “J,” “6,” or “7,” which follows

Two phenomena- hindsight bias and judgmental overconfidence- illustrate why we can’t rely solely on intuition and common sense.

Substantial burden to individuals and communities are outcomes of the most occurring disorder within the United States, anxiety disorder. Even though effective treatments for anxiety disorders have been developed, there has been extensively less focus on intervention techniques directed at the betterment regarding anxiety-related risks and care factors (Keough & Schmidt, 2012). Advances in prevention programs for anxiety and its disorders are presently in its early stage of development. On July 11, 2014, a study was conducted to test an adaptation of a Cognitive Bias Modification program to minimize anxiousness predisposition. It evaluated the causal relationships between rendering preconception of physiological cues, anxiety sensitivity,

Confirmation bias is a primary issue that prevents people from perceiving the world objectively. The phenomenon occurs when an individual chooses to expose themselves only to media and information that confirms a personally held belief rather than consider another side of the argument. In the media age we are currently in, it is remarkably uncomplicated to find countless arguments on one side of a controversial debate to buttress one’s own existing beliefs; we come to believe in a false consensus of our beliefs due to our limited exposure to other opinions. Consequently, especially in the United States due to having gone through an incredibly sensationalized presidential election, we are in a time somewhat marked by increased polarization.

A cognitive bias in which people will have the tendency to believe that a statement, idea, or information is accurate if it is either positive, meaningful, or if it’s personally addressed to them. Many people believe in biorhythms, horoscopes iridology, cold reading, and tarot cards because they appear to have the solution to their problems which is meaningful. In addition, many mediums and palm readers depend on subjective validation because it is easy to convince others that they are linked to unrelated events. (Pages 120, 122-123).

Confirmation bias is a tendency of people to prefer information that reinforces a thought or believe that they have. People demonstrate this bias when they retain information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for emotional issues and for deeply rooted beliefs. (Science Daily)

Confirmation bias occurs from the direct influence of desire on beliefs. When people would like a certain idea/concept to be true, they end up believing it to be true. People tend to be motivated by wishful thinking. This error leads the individual to stop gathering information when the evidence gathered so far confirms the views (prejudices) one would like to be true (Heshmat, 2015). Therefore, is very important for people to use their critical thinking skills. Good critical thinking skills required that we evaluate evidence thoroughly and be aware of social and cognitive errors in our thinking to effectively evaluate any given situation. And avoid jumping to a conclusion or acting quickly based on preconceived ideas (Boss,

Mitigating the optimism bias would be beneficial when facing a financial crisis;the person might be negligent to the severity of the situation and rely on the hope that everything will unfold itself. By leveling down the optimism bias, the person will be able to think without clouding judgement and exert clarity and intelligence in the progression of settling their finances. However, this could very well be their down fall, by minimizing optimism bias too far gone it can lead them to give up because they see no light at the end of the tunnel, they simply prepare to face the worst scenario possible. When competing one is advised to "not get too cocky" , that is due to the allusion that toning down your optimism bias that you always win,

Confirmation bias is our feeling to choose the information that confirms what we belief or the ideas we have on a subject. Sometimes this can lead us to misjudge or make wrong decisions. The pilots of flight 5191 out of Lexington airport let their belief of the situation make them make the wrong decision and not confirm they were on the right runway. Pilots Clay and Polehinke ignored the warning signs of the unlit runway, too short runway and their distracted conversation during the pre-flight time.

I really enjoy reading the article “You Are Not So Smart” the article really brought up some valid points about “Confirmation Bias” with using examples of our everyday life. There were many interesting piece of information from the article, but there was a few that really drew my attention. For instance, where the teaching confirmation bias in classroom where numbers were involved. The example is followed when the teacher show the students three different numbers, where they have to guess what the numbers were and why they are in a certain order as well as to guess the secret that the teacher used to select these number. Then the students were asked to come up with their own three numbers with the same method that they think that was used throughout

The confirmation bias is about us giving priority or being biased towards information that affirms preceding and existing beliefs or experiences. Suppose that a person believes that people who are left handed are more creative compared to right handed people. On any occasion the person with this belief meets a person that is creative and also left handed they regard this evidence quite important as it confirms their existing belief. They also might find proof further to back up the belief and will disregard other examples which do not support the fundamental belief. While confirmation biases have an influence on people collecting information they also have an impact how information is being interpreted and

Decision-making is always critical in people’s day-to-day lives. Individuals have to make choices between the very many options they have at their disposal. In doing so, sound judgement is needed, accompanied by much sobriety (Fay, & Montague, 2014). However, in trying to make sound decisions people always base their opinions on certain reference points. In fact, psychologists have generated much data, which shows that people rely so much on the pieces of information that they get to the extent that their judgement is affected. This usually presents the challenge of not making the best decision (Kansal & Sing, 2015).

Juan appears to demonstrate “confirmation bias” because his unconscious tendency attached more weight than what he should in information that is consistent with his beliefs, hypothesis, and recent experiences and discount

Voltaire once said, “Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is an absurd one.” We live in a world that is constantly changing and does not grant the certainty that people desire. But, people want the stability of knowing what is going to happen; this is why certainty is absurd. In his essay The Surety of Fools, Daniel Kahneman provides examples of people using a phenomenon he calls the illusion of validity. These people strongly believe their actions cause a specific outcome, when in reality there is statistical evidence that shows their actions have no direct correlation with the outcome.While Kahneman argues the illusion of validity comes partially from people’s tendency to make quick decisions without fully conveying the causes, it really stems from people’s fear of uncertainty. The fear of uncertainty is deeply engrained within our society in academia and in our decision making.

The important key terms addressed in this essay are“attaining knowledge” and “bias”. Attaining knowledge is the ability to achieve and recognise knowledge as creditable and reliable. Knowledge are basically include facts, information, and skills acquired through experience or education, officially, it’s the theoretical or practical understanding of a subject. And finally, Bias exists when one’s claims, views or judgements are unobjective where the individual’s personal opinions and life values that shaped their judgements and thoughts towards certain things. Therefore I will arguing towards this claim, using History and the natural sciences to prove the possibility of obtaining knowledge despite the problem of bias. By first addressing the possible credibility of history and natural sciences as an area of knowledge, and then introducing the disclaimers of the bias present in