Project: Multiple Regression Model
Introduction
Today’s stock market offers as many opportunities for investors to raise money as jeopardies to lose it because market depends on different factors, such as overall observed country’s performance, foreign countries’ performance, and unexpected events. One of the most important stock market indexes is Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) as it comprises the 500 largest American companies across various industries and sectors. Many people put their money into the market to get return on investment. Investors ask themselves questions like how to make money on the stock market and is there a way to predict in some degree how the stock market will behave? There are lots and lots of
…show more content…
Decrease in house prices is one of the possible contributors to recession because the home owners lose their equity in their houses. Considering such recession scenario, the stock market always becomes bearish. Additionally, house market is considered more stable investment than stock market. When stock market drops, people are willing in the houses and HPI goes up. We assume that HPI and stock market shouldn’t move in the same direction thereby we don’t take into consideration the complex scenario of 2008.
β4: 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate impacts on the number of issued bond and is used as risk free rate to calculate the excess return on the investment. It also has an influence on the stock market.
β5: Gross Domestic Product of the US is important for business profit and this can drive the stock prices up. Investing in the stock market seems reasonable when the economy is doing well. If the economy is growing fast then the stock market should be affected positively, the investors are more optimistic about the future and they put more money into market more. This variable is crucial for the dependent one.
β6: Gross Domestic Product of Spain. Since Europe is currently in a recession, we wanted to include the GDP of Spain, as one of the weakest economies in Europe now, to check if there is any relationship between
For many people, the star market is a popular method for obtaining money quickly. Despite the risks, many people invest their money in stocks. The stock market allows the public to buy shares of a company, or a stock. These shares come in the form of an official document, and grants you a small fraction of the company you invested in. As companies do well, their stocks are worth more. Stocks can be bought and sold through the help of a stockbroker. The goal is to buy a share of a company, then later sell the share for more money than you bought it for. However, the market is risky; this is proven by multiple crashes in the market, resulting in loss of money.
The housing crisis of 2008 can trace its origins back to the stock market trends of the mid- to late 90 's. During a period of extended growth in the stock market, increased individual wealth among investors led to generalized increases in spending, including in the housing market. With more disposable income in the pockets of consumers, the demand for housing increased in the late 90 's. Due to the fact that homes are large projects and their construction takes a large amount of time, the supply of homes in the market is inelastic on the short term. Because of the fixed supply of homes, as per the law of supply, which
The Stock Market is a vast and confusing setting. It has influence on many aspects of the economy like pensions, bond markets, and even retirement accounts. However, many aren 't educated about how the Stock market works, how it affects the economy, the difference between stocks versus bond and mutual funds, nor the amount of illegal activities taking part within the stock market.
I have data for my dependent variable and for my six independent variables. My dependent variable is inflation. The inflation data used in this paper comes from EuroStat. Inflation is calculated as the annual average rate of change (%) in the Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices (HICP). The HICP is a consumer price index which has been harmonized across EU countries, in order to avoid differences in how the price index is calculated. Inflation varies greatly across countries and the lowest inflation in this data set is -1.7%, while the highest is 5.5%.
7. TEAM specialty … TUNEUP (1 hour) … REPAIR (actual time + materials) … INSTALL (quoted time + materials).
As shown to the results in the summarized Table 11 above, Coefficient of determination explains the extent to which changes in the dependent variable can be explained by the change in the independent
The early 2000s recession was a drastic decline in economic conditions, which mainly occurred in the developed countries. From 2001, the Federal Reserve initiated a move to quell the stock market, caused successive inflation in interest rate, thus “plunging the country into” the worldwide economic recession (Ruddy, 2006). The annual GDP growth rate dropped below 1% along with the significant downturn in U.S. housing and the stock market. From 2002, the economy started to recover from the recession: the GDP growth rate slightly increased every month, the monthly house price index increased and the S&P index increased with an approximate one year lag. The year 2002 and 2003 are the “golden age” of recovery. The annual GDP growth rate increased to 2%-3% and the housing price index increases significantly with a slight increase in stock prices in 2003. Interestingly, although the GDP growth rate and the house price index started to increase in 2002, the stock market remained in recession until the end of the year.
Spain illustrated the fact that the euro zone 's problems, are the disciplined of government over borrowing and overspending. Even Greece, Portugal and Italy have huge debts but at least the Spanish government tried to control its borrowing that it ran a balanced budget every year until the financial crisis in 2008. Spain had a rapid economic growth before 2008, but it start to off when they start to borrow more. In contrast, Germany, continue to
The overall game plan or structure we follow is called the 5 and 9 rule. This process cannot be changed or conducted out of order. It is essential to follow this process step by step. I will now go through the steps in order to build a regression model or test it. Our first technique is following the ordinary least squares which involves the Blue line or best linear unbiased estimator. The line is backed up by the results of residuals and errors values after attempting to lower the sum of square errors for all error values within the data set. This concept must be followed precisely in order for the model to be efficient and yield solid results. I will also use tests to determine the statistical significance of my variables. These tests
There are many issues that could potentially harm the validity of the regression forecast or results. One of the issues is that the variables are not normally distributed. This can be detected by visual inspection, specifically by looking at the Histogram or the normal profitability plot. This issue could actually lead to a higher amount of error in the regression project. One of the fixes is to actually ignore or remove the observation. Ignoring or removing the error could lead to a major amount of error build up, or could lead to removing an important variable within the data. Another issue is possibly the presence of serial correlation. This problem can develop or be detected with visual inspection, through the residuals specifically in
As indicated by the case study S&P 500 index was use as a measure of the total return for the stock market. Our standard deviation of the total return was used as a one measure of the risk of an individual stock. Also betas for individual stocks are determined by simple linear regression. The variables were: total return for the stock as the dependent variable and independent variable is the total return for the stock. Since the descriptive statistics were a lot, only the necessary data was selected (below table.)
Since electricity demand and the regressors are in logarithms, the demand elasticities are directly derived from the coefficients. Monthly binary dummy covers from January to November and does not include dummy for December to avoid dummy variable trap. Severe multicollinearity between price variables of on-peak, mid-peak and off peak limited the estimation of cross price elasticity. We assume that individual error components are uncorrelated with each other. With regards to choice of econometric technique, we used Cochrane-Orcutt estimation to adjust serial correlation in error terms. Due to the same explanatory variables appear in the log-log equations, which is in fact OLS is equivalent to seemingly unrelated regression, it is not
By 2015, this figure could reach 1.6%. These data were included in a report on the process of financial sector reforms in Spain and confirm the government's projections, which put the figure at 1.2% and 1.9% respectively. IMF calls the current situation "difficult." According to representatives of the organization, it could trigger a reduction of 1.3% of GDP in 2013. However, they said, since last summer, the situation has improved - especially in the area of reform of the financial system and because of the actions of the European Central Bank. Among the disadvantages faced by the country, the IMF calls the collapse of the "bubble" in the housing market, high debt levels in the population, the tightening of credit conditions, fiscal consolidation and the uncertainty caused by the banking and debt crisis. "The reduction of GDP in 2013 due to a decrease in domestic demand was only partially offset by export" - explains the IMF. Also, as expected, in 2013 unemployment will peak at 25.1% and will gradually decline to 24.1% in 2014 and to 23.2% in 2015. (2012, SPANISH RECESSION TO LAST UNTIL 2014, IMF WARNS)
The belief of macroeconomic variables influencing the stock market has been a highly debated discussion for the past decades. There has been no clear conclusion whether or not macroeconomic variables impact the stock market or inversely. The importance of this study have been increasingly critical as not only stock agents find the critical importance but the government to implement macroeconomic policy; the solid finding of this relation will enable policy makers to efficiently and effectively control the economy as well as the capital market. We aim to cover some relationship between macroeconomic indicators, including consumption, interest rate unemployment rate and inflation rate, and with stock price.
Recovery in the Spanish economy began in the second half of 2013, continuing into the opening months of 2014. There was a moderate increase in quarter-on-quarter GDP and employment rate. Both external and domestic factors helped in reviving the economy. The economic policy decisions adopted by the euro area governments, progress in euro area governance and the ECB’s expansionary monetary policy have contributed to relaxing financial tensions, although they still remain high.