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Measuring Manufacturing : How The Computer And Semiconductor Industries Affect The Numbers And Perceptions Upjohn Institute Working Paper No

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Measuring Manufacturing: How the Computer and Semiconductor Industries Affect the Numbers and Perceptions Upjohn Institute Working Paper No. 14-209 Susan Houseman W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research e-mail: houseman@upjohn.org Timothy J. Bartik W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research Timothy Sturgeon Industrial Performance Center, MIT February 2013 Revised, January 2014 ABSTRACT Growth in U.S. manufacturing 's real value-added has exceeded that of aggregate GDP, except during recessions, leading many to conclude that the sector is healthy and that the 30 percent decline in manufacturing employment since 2000 is largely the consequence of automation.

In response to these employment losses, as well as to a large trade …show more content…

First, we detail the influence that computer and electronic products manufacturing has on real manufacturing GDP growth nationally and in states.

5 The rapid growth of real value-added in the computer and electronic products industry, NAICS 334, can be attributed to two subindustries: computer manufacturing, NAICS 334111, and semiconductor and related device manufacturing, NAICS 334413.

6 Figure 3 shows average annual growth in real GDP for U.S. manufacturing as published and for manufacturing excluding the computer industry along with aggregate real GDP growth rates from 1997 to 2007 and from 2000 to 2010.

8 Although the computer and electronic products industry only accounted for between 10 and 13 percent of value-added in the U.S. manufacturing sector throughout the period, it has an outsized effect on manufacturing statistics.

Without NAICS 334, U.S. manufacturing 's real GDP growth was only 1.2 percent per year from 1997 to 2007, a third of the published aggregate manufacturing growth rate, and was much weaker than overall growth in the economy.

The manufacturing sector is disproportionately affected by recessions, and so when computed over a more recent period, real GDP growth was somewhat lower in manufacturing than in the aggregate economy.

Contribution of the Computer and Electronic Products Industry to State-Level Manufacturing Growth The nationwide pattern of strong manufacturing output growth in combination with a

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