MAT201 MOD 1 Essay

Donnelly begins his presentation with a thought experiment involving the tossing of a coin and predicts the possibility of a certain series of results. When predicting the possibility of heads, tails, heads (HTH) or heads, tails, tails (HTT), I, like most of the audience, believed that the chance of either possibility was equal. However, I did not take into account the possibility of overlap and how HTH was more like to be achieved in an overlap. I also did not catch that the HTH could appear in clumps because of the overlapping (the third "H" in HTH is also the first "H" in the next HTH). There was also the

| 2. Solve by simulating the problem. You have a 5-question multiple-choice test. Each question has four choices. You don’t know any of the answers. What is the experimental probability that you will guess exactly three out of five questions correctly? Type your answer below using complete sentences.

Ans: the random variable is being used in statistics and probability most of the time. This is also called stochastic or aleatory variable as his has an ability of making its values vary according to the subject or according to the chance that occur. A random variable has the ability of taking a set of different kind of values that also have the different value with the value associated with it.

If S is a finite sample space of equal likely outcomes and E is an event , that is a subset of S

The video begins with Peter Donnelly, a statistician bringing up a coin toss thought experiment. The audience was to guess how often the pattern of coin flip would land Head-Tail-Tail compared to the other pattern of Head-Tail-Head. The three options were: "A" the number of coin tosses for the pattern HTH will be greater compared to HTT. "B" both patters would take on average the same time to repeat themselves. "C" the number of coin tosses for the pattern HTT will be greater compared to HTT. I chose option "B" as my answer because every coin flip is a 50/50 chance of getting either head or tail so on average both patters should repeat them equally. I was surprised to find that most people also vote option "B", but in fact the odds favor option "A". On average, it will take relatively less tosses to get the pattern HTT than HTH, about 8:10 tosses. This is because the pattern HTT has a larger chance for success because a third of the pattern is always established while the pattern head tail head appears in clumps.

What is the probability of randomly selecting a liberal or a male? a) My answer: 0.3886

15) The National Center for Health Statistics reported that of every 883 deaths in recent years, 24 resulted from an automobile accident, 182 from cancer, and 333 from heart disease. Using the relative frequency approach, what is the probability that a particular death is due to an automobile accident?

D) The probability of 70 or more correct guesses if the subject is guessing at the chance rate.

31. Consider the following distribution and random numbers: If a simulation begins with the first random number, what would the first simulation value would be __________.

a. Suppose Evan chose a bottle from the refrigerator at random. Could we realistically say that the probability of choosing a diet soda is 7/3? Why or why not?

Would you hire someone you recently saw in the local mug shots? The answers were in multiple choice formats and are as follows- no, probably not, probably, or yes. Of the persons surveyed, 26.7% responded 'no ', 53.3% responded 'probably not ', 20% responded 'probably ' and no one responded 'yes '.

describe events as likely or unlikely and discuss the degree of likelihood using such words as certain, equally likely, and impossible;

Decide whether the experiment is a binomial, Poisson or neither based on the info given. A book contains 500 pages. There are 200 typing errors randomly distributed throughout the book. We're interested in knowing the probablity that a certain page contains an error.

The game that we made which Its called egg smasher. When you play the egg smasher your goal is to pick a hard-boiled egg if you do you win a prize. If I were to tell you if the game is fair or not I would tell u that it is not fair because there is a 5/12 chance of getting a hard-boiled egg. The way that I could make the game fair is by making it equal and having 6 hard-boiled eggs and 6 normal eggs. So the probability of winning is 5/12. Here is the theoretical probability. There is 4 kid that walks up to the stand the first kid picks a hard-boiled egg. The 2nd kid gets a normal egg the 3rd one gets a normal and same with the 4th. The sample space for our activity is hard-boiled and normal eggs. When we ran the simulation we used a probability

-Probability samples are samples that the individuals or items are selected based on the probabilities that are known. A non-probability sample is one where individuals or