TERM- PAPER
Lost Sales Forecast
Table of Contents
Introduction 3
Carlson Department Store Sales data for September 1992 through August 1996 4
Countywide Department Stores Sales data for September 1992 through August 1996 5
Choosing the appropriate forecasting method 6
Trend and Seasonal Components in Forecasting 7
An estimate of lost sales for the Carlson Department Store 10
Conclusion 10
Introduction
The Carlson Department Store suffered heavy damage when a hurricane struck on August 31, 1996. The store was closed for four months (September 1996 through December 1996) causing our sales drop to $0. The task of this report is to analyze sales in
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From the above graph one can also observe that in past 3 years (years 1993-1995) the volume of sales in the month of September went down, and slowly went up again in October and November and usually reached its peak in December. The unusual behavior in September 1996 pulls our attention. For the first time in 4 years history we observe that the sales volume in September compared to August sales went up by 11.7 % whereas in September 1993 they were down by 8.6%, in September 1994 down by 15.3%, and in September 1995 actually down by 21.8%. The question is why
For example, factory production declines from weeks 10-17 because of low margins. Factories cannot produce normally because of the cost constraints facing them. The positive value seen at week 18 means that factories have addressed cost issues hence can meet market demand. A positive trend emerges during week 18 as seen from factory with 1unit and 9units for distributor. The value of -24units from retailers in the same week means that factories can produce but remain cautious about meeting previous production
The following report presents a detailed statistical analysis of AJ DAVIS department store customers. Data was collected from a sample of 50 AJ DAVIS credit customers for the purpose of learning more about the customers of AJ DAVIS.
On the morning of January 17, 1993, before the annual buying trip to Germany for the 1993 Christmas season, the toy buyer for the chain of Hightower Department Stores named Julia Brown was reviewing the performance of some models of stuffed animals tested for sales during 1992. Every time Julia’s on the trip, she would buy some stuffed animals for testing. Fifty was the minimum amount the manufacturers require. Based on Julia’s years of buying experience, the tested result would give Julia a clear estimation about how many new stuffed animals she needed to order. Figure 1 in below shows the timeline of how Julia buys the toys for the company:
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Thank you for the opportunity to assess your sales data in order to provide recommendations for increasing your sales. The analysis and recommendations below are based on the data you provided, which covers a period from May 2004 through June 2006. The analysis below is based on this data alone. Therefore, our recommendations should be tempered by your knowledge of business realities and your market. Please let us know if we can answer any questions concerning the analysis or the recommendations provided.
I think it is obvious in the previous years that the amount the company spends on advertising has a direct effect on the number of sales. According to the projected number of units that are expected to be sold, the company is expecting an increase from 3,400 in year 8 to 3510 in year 9. This is a considerable increase because of the fact that in year 7, there were 4,000 units sold, and in year 8 we saw this drop to 3,400.
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The personal selling process is a continuously revolving cycle of stages that assist the professional sales person of today in developing basic selling strategies and tactics that help them improve and prefect their own personal selling styles. As listed in the text, “there are countless small tasks in the personal selling process that are generally organized into seven major stages that overlap and interact which are: