preview

Hurricane Jobs Essay

Better Essays

Hurricane-Affected Jobs Report Will Not Impact Fed Policy Conduct
The Employment Situation report for September was, as expected, influenced by the intense hurricane activity witnessed last month. Headline non-farm payrolls declined -33K in September after increases of +169K and +138K in August and July, respectively. Unsurprisingly, the bulk of the weakness was in hospitality & leisure employment, which declined -111K. Meanwhile, the hurricane activity did not appear to have a large and discernible impact on the household survey, from which the unemployment rate is calculated. The civilian measure dropped to 4.2% from 4.4% in August, largely due to a sharp rise in employment versus a decline in the participation rate. Furthermore, the …show more content…

Furthermore, the hurricanes succeeded in boosting auto and light truck sales in September to 18.5 million, the highest level since September 2001. Admittedly, the requirement to replace vehicles destroyed in the hurricanes will not be long-lasting, but it comes as a welcome development in terms of reducing an inventory overhang.
Meanwhile, strengthening activity has also been registered in the service sector: the ISM’s Report on Non-Manufacturing Business also increased significantly in September. Recent readings of live GDP forecasts for Q3, courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, have been trending upwards over the past few weeks, the latest being +2.7%. Carrying such momentum into Q4 would, therefore, suggest more labour market tightening, thereby further justifying an increase in the federal funds rate in December. Crucially, both ISM Surveys indicate that price pressures have been rising significantly over the past four months, helping to support Fed Chair Yellen’s view that weaker-than-expected inflation is attributable to transient forces.
Is Manufacturing Strength Sustainable?
The recovery in US manufacturing has its roots in three developments: 1) the stabilisation of oil prices, 2) an easing of an inventory overhang that prevailed in 2015-16, and 3) a weaker dollar exchange rate. The bulk of the impact of the post-July 2014 decline in oil prices was felt via a large decline in capital

Get Access