Hurricane-Affected Jobs Report Will Not Impact Fed Policy Conduct
The Employment Situation report for September was, as expected, influenced by the intense hurricane activity witnessed last month. Headline non-farm payrolls declined -33K in September after increases of +169K and +138K in August and July, respectively. Unsurprisingly, the bulk of the weakness was in hospitality & leisure employment, which declined -111K. Meanwhile, the hurricane activity did not appear to have a large and discernible impact on the household survey, from which the unemployment rate is calculated. The civilian measure dropped to 4.2% from 4.4% in August, largely due to a sharp rise in employment versus a decline in the participation rate. Furthermore, the
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Furthermore, the hurricanes succeeded in boosting auto and light truck sales in September to 18.5 million, the highest level since September 2001. Admittedly, the requirement to replace vehicles destroyed in the hurricanes will not be long-lasting, but it comes as a welcome development in terms of reducing an inventory overhang.
Meanwhile, strengthening activity has also been registered in the service sector: the ISM’s Report on Non-Manufacturing Business also increased significantly in September. Recent readings of live GDP forecasts for Q3, courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, have been trending upwards over the past few weeks, the latest being +2.7%. Carrying such momentum into Q4 would, therefore, suggest more labour market tightening, thereby further justifying an increase in the federal funds rate in December. Crucially, both ISM Surveys indicate that price pressures have been rising significantly over the past four months, helping to support Fed Chair Yellen’s view that weaker-than-expected inflation is attributable to transient forces.
Is Manufacturing Strength Sustainable?
The recovery in US manufacturing has its roots in three developments: 1) the stabilisation of oil prices, 2) an easing of an inventory overhang that prevailed in 2015-16, and 3) a weaker dollar exchange rate. The bulk of the impact of the post-July 2014 decline in oil prices was felt via a large decline in capital
Due to disasters created by hurricanes Harvey and Irma, United States employment has fallen for the first time since 2010 after having seven year job growth streak. The monthly job report suggest that 33,000 jobs were lost due to the two disasters that struck Texas and Florida. Prior to the disasters, it was acknowledged that the report expect a rise of 67,000 jobs in September had there been no hurricanes to affect the employment rates. Employment decline in September mainly concentrated in low-wage industries and employment in the leisure and hospitality sector, such as hotels, restaurants and other weather-dependent
As stated above, “gas prices had a 35-cent increase reaching a high of $2.67.” This price is held constant when determining the change in supply and demand. Fred Beach, assistant director for policy studies at UT’s Energy Institute stated, “The oil refineries were flat-flooded by the hurricane. Since Hurricane Harvey made landfall to the south of Houston, the storm surge and high winds largely missed the refineries, but flooding by torrential rains did the most damage.” This can be considered a decrease in the quantity supplied of oil, due to the technology of the oil refineries affected by the storm. The determinant of demand can be considered the same for the market of gas stations/gas prices in Texas and drivers. Andrew McAdams, computer science and math junior, explained, “I remember a line of cars waiting to get gas at the 7-Eleven on MLK and Guad.” Even though the overall price of gas increased, the overall expectation of a long-term potential gas shortage made drivers fear. This caused more and more people to rush to the gas station to fill up their
Although business leaders may not have a crystal ball to help them plan for the future, they do have access to a wide range of Federal Reserve publications that can help identify recent and current trends and what these economists believe will take place in the coming months. Given the lingering effects of the Great Recession of 2008 on the American economy today, identifying the future economic outlook for America using this type of freely available information therefore represents a timely and valuable enterprise. To this end, this paper provides a review of relevant publications to identify the Federal Reserve's current assessment of economic activity and financial markets, its current view about inflation and various monetary tools that have been used to stabilize the economic and prices in recent years. Finally, an analysis of the economic outlook for the next 12- to 18-month period is followed by a summary of the research and important findings in the conclusion.
system, or one making landfall just a few nautical miles further to the north, would have
According to Annie Murphy Paul’s research (2011), one of the first things babies learn before they are born are the sounds of their surroundings, and most important, the sound of their mother’s voice—her voice is the clearest to the baby so it is the most soothing and calming. Babies also learn smells and tastes in utero, once the olfactory receptors and taste buds are developed. This teaches the baby what is and is not safe to consume. Overall, babies learn about the culture they are going to enter—they learn their mother’s accent and the variety of food available.
As our city grieves in the wake of Hurricane Harvey, a category four hurricane that hit Houston as a tropical storm, our nation is left battling economic and social concerns that will impact the future of both Texas and America as a whole. As many areas of Houston are transitioning from relief to rebuilding, our politicians and local leaders need to take hard look at the best path moving forward. Despite tensions between Texan politicians and the national government, it is to our benefit that we turn to federal funding to provide for our people. Though we are “Houston Strong” and were able to act quickly in helping our neighbors immediately following the devastation, it is imperative that we work cohesively with the national government to make Texas stronger for the long-run. As we begin moving forward we need to ask ourselves, “Do we want to rebuild sooner or better?”
Hurricane Katrina hit the southern coast of the United States on August 28, 2005. The center of Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans on the morning of August 29, 2005. The devastating effect of this hurricane resulted in more than 1,800 citizens losing their lives, as well as more than an estimated $81 billion dollars in damages occurred. By August 31, 2005, eighty-percent of the city became submerged under water because the storm surge breached the city's levees at multiple points. If the levees are damaged massive water will flood Louisiana from the Gulf Coast, the Mississippi River, and other surrounding bodies of water. Some areas of New Orleans were 15 feet under water. Winds of Hurricane Katrina reached an astounding category 3 as
In 1773 workers used 150 pounds of explosives to implode the Holy Trinity Tower in Ireland (Grogan). The demolition industry has been around for a long, time. There are several types of demolition, such as Hazardous materials expert, explosives material expert, and demolition itself. Demolition experts have the ability to deconstruct any structure they need to for the job. Experts training, skill, and attention to detail are required to work as a demolition expert.
According to the New York Times, of all the federal agencies involved in New York's recovery efforts, none played a greater or more controversial role than FEMA, which was chosen to disburse $8.8 billion in aid. (Chen, Bagli, & Hernandez, 2002)
The United States is the leading economy across the globe and experienced several tribulations in the recent past following the 2008 global recession. Despite these recent challenges, there are expectations among policymakers and financial experts that the country will experience solid economic growth. Actually, financial analysts have stated that the U.S. economy will be characterized by increased consumer spending, increased investments by businesses, reduced rate of unemployment, and reduction in government cut. Some analysts have also stated that the country’s economy will strengthen in 2014 with an average of 2.7 percent or more. However, these predictions can only be understood through an analysis of the current macroeconomic
Hurricane Katrina was one of the deadliest hurricanes ever to hit the United States. Hurricane Katrina started out as any other hurricane, as the result of warm moisture and air from the oceans surface that built into storm clouds and pushed around by strong forceful winds until it became a powerful storm. Hurricane Katrina formed over the Bahamas on August 23, 2005 and crossed southern Florida as a moderate Category 1 hurricane, causing some deaths and flooding there before strengthening rapidly in the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane over the warm Gulf water, but weakened before making its second landfall as a Category 3 hurricane on the morning of Monday, August 29 in southeast
Hurricane Sandy was a tropical cyclone that devastated portions of the Caribbean, Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States in late October 2012. The eighteenth named storm and tenth hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, Sandy was the largest Atlantic hurricane on record, as measured by diameter, with winds spanning 1,100 miles. Sandy is estimated in early calculations to have caused damage of at least $20 billion. Preliminary estimates of losses that include business interruption surpass $50 billion, which, if confirmed, would make it the second-costliest Atlantic hurricane in history, behind only Hurricane Katrina.
Answer: Property and casualty insurance protects property (houses, cars, boats, and so on) against losses due to accidents, fire, disasters, and other calamities. Property and casualty policies tend to be short-term contracts and, that’s why the subject to frequent renewal is, and one more characteristic feature is the absence of savings component. Property and casualty premiums are based on the probability of sustaining the loss. To estimate the key determinant of the price of an insurance policy, i.e. risks, insurance companies take third-party proceedings that develop models of catastrophe loss probabilities. Based on the numbers form Exhibit 5 of the case we see that
Hurricanes are one of nature’s most natural occurrences and intense phenomenal storms. Yet, as phenomenal as they are, they are still one of the deadliest and disastrous natural occurrences that continue to plague costal residents with fears of their homes being destroyed, their towns wiped out, and loved ones either disappearing or dying.
A hurricane is a tropical storm that has winds of 74 miles per hour or