How Assumptions of Consensus Undermine Decision Making

Kathryn Schulz argues in “Evidence”, a chapter of her book called Being Wrong, that we need to “learn to actively combat our inductive biases: to deliberately seek out evidence that challenges our beliefs, and to take seriously such evidence when we come across it” (Schulz, 377”). By attending to counterevidence we can avoid making errors in our conclusions.

In conclusion, you shouldn’t jump to conclusions, because the fastest answer isn’t always the right

Isaac Asimov said, “Your assumptions are your windows on the world. Scrub them off every once in a while, or the light won’t come in.” Everyday people perceive things based on assumptions. Why is that? Is it because of the norms, rules, or stuff we see on television? You could probably say that. Society over the years has taught us many ways to see eye to eye on different issues. Clifford D. Simak illustrates many ways to differ perception from reality in “Desertion”.

Notably, the fundamental attribution error is a personal bias that is problematic in society. To emphasize, the fundamental attribution error is when individuals have the tendency to attribute people’s behavior to components of their character or personality, even when situational influences are producing the behavior (Textbook, page 171). An example of the fundamental attribution error operating in daily life is when a driver avoids hitting a pedestrian and causes an accident. In this

In the consensus model the goal is to allow the NP to practice to the fullest of extent including education and licensure. Using this model, the NP should have the ability to prescribe independently. The ability to prescribe independently would include being about to order medications, DME, and other medical services without a collaborating physician.

Presumption can reveal false constructive attitudes about other people's ways. For instance, we in the urban industrial society often think of people from India as being "money hungry and intruders" although this view fails to identify that there are many emphasis in their way of life, with the contribution to communities. False optimistic presumptions can be just as deceptive as false unconstructive assumptions.

8. In exploring the certainty with which people hold their beliefs a researcher proposes that those with more information about the topic will be more certain about their belief about that topic. Half of the participants are given 20 facts about a topic and are asked about their belief about that topic. The other half of the participants are given 5 facts about a topic and are asked about the strength of their belief about that topic.

In Chapter 3, there were 12 areas of bias spread across the 3 areas of heuristics. The main theme of the text was to prove that we are predisposed to certain outcomes. As we make important decisions we rely on our memory, or a number of past events, or even ignoring facts. Overall, we are biased in many ways when it comes to making decisions, or predicting outcomes of a particular event.

In his 2013 book, Naked Statistics, Charles Wheelan explains a field that is commonly seen, commonly applied, and commonly misinterpreted: statistics. Though statistical data is ubiquitous in daily life, valid statistical conclusions are not. Wheelan reveals that when data analysis is flawed or incomplete, faulty conclusions abound. Wheelan’s work uncovers statistics’ unscrupulous potential, but also makes a key distinction between deliberate misuse and careless misreading. However, his analysis is less successful in distinguishing common sense from poor judgement, a gap that enables the very statistical issues he describes to perpetuate themselves.

inferences and judgements about people and sometimes forget that it is our own viewpoint that

Looking Past Appearances People are susceptible to making faulty assumptions about others. Intentionally and unintentionally, judgments upon an unfamiliar face is made swiftly. In less than a second, a snap judgement that is “surprisingly hard to budge” is formed in the mind (Highfield, Wiseman, Jenkins). In a phenomenon known as the halo effect, “the perception of positive qualities in one thing or part gives rise to the perception of similar qualities in related things or in the whole.” (Dobrin)

One of the greatest dangers to scientific studies is the "confirmation bias". When a researcher is trying to collect documents and publications for what is studying or analyzing, it is very likely that only see, or just to notice what "it suits" for what he wants to prove. Moreover, even almost unconsciously, it is liable to see more quickly connections with other publications that seem to corroborate their investigations. Unfortunately, this "confirmation bias" affects not only scientific studies. It concerns us all. In today's article, I intend to show by example how to detect this phenomenon and some techniques to try to avoid it.

The existence of “the tyranny of the prevailing opinion and feeling” (Mill 4) also constrains an individual’s personal liberty. In On Liberty, Mill wrote that “the mass do not now take their opinions from “the mass do not now take their opinions from dignitaries in Church or State, from ostensible leaders, or from books. Their thinking is done for them by men much like themselves” (63). Mill believed that the majority in the society tends to impose their own ideas and practices onto other people. This will eventually cause the minority opinion to be completely omitted and silenced. Moreover, the majority is not guaranteed to be correct, and could not be falsified as result of no open discussion or debate. This lack of discussion could only fetter and hinder the development and the formation of character. Mill wrote “However unwilling a person who has a strong opinion may admit the possibility that his opinion may be false, he ought to be moved by the consideration that, however true it may be, if it is not fully, frequently discussed, it will be held as a dead dogma, not a living” (34). In a society where dead dogmas are prevalent, no individuals can obtain complete freedom. This is because no one will have the courage to challenge and circulate new and original ideas that can help them achieve liberty. The members of the society will live in a world where no one will construct new ideas, and no one will discover and spread the ultimate truths. Instead, the people will cling

A crucial skill in critical thinking is learning to distinguish inference from assumption. An inference is an act of concluding that something is true or seems to be true. An assumption is an act of assuming something based on previous beliefs. Everyone has their own point of view, therefore, they have different assumptions about what the see. For example, if two people see an overweight person at the gym, one might infer, "There's a lazy person." The other might infer, "That person is taking control of their health." These inferences are based on different assumptions about the conditions under which overweight people end up in the gym; these assumptions are connected to the point of view about people that each has formed. The first person

When it comes to trust, people might generally gravitate towards trusting those in their social circle more compared to strangers. Since, previous experience of trust was positive, they might not hesitate while relying on them again. Risk associated related to their credibility are low compared to an unfamiliar person. Moreover, certain individuals tend to be more conservative and selective when it comes to trusting even their acquaintances. However, human behavior instead of being fixed, is flexible and external factors influence people to make certain decisions that they would not make under normal conditions. Social pressures, environmental pressures and intrapersonal factors can influence their decision making process. Individuals under