ESTIMATION OF GROWTH RATES
The value of a firm is ultimately determined not by current cash flows but by expected future cash flows. The estimation of growth rates in earnings and cash flows is therefore central to doing a reasonable valuation. Growth rates can be obtained in many ways: they can be based upon past growth; drawn from estimates made by other analysts who follow the firm; or related to the firm's fundamentals. Since each of these approaches yields some valuable information, it makes sense to blend them to arrive at one composite growth rate to use in the valuation. This chapter examines different approaches to estimating future growth, and discusses the determinants of growth.
Question 1 - Arithmetic and Geometric Means
The
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ï It could reduce the dividend payout ratio to 50% and reinvest more back into the business.
A. What is the expected growth rate in earnings, assuming that 1993 numbers remain unchanged?
B. What is the expected growth rate in earnings, if the restructuring plan described above is put into effect?
C. What will the beta of the stock be, if the restructuring plan is put into effect?
Question 6 - Adjusting Inputs For Firm Type
Computer Associates makes software that enables computers to run more efficiently. It is still in its high-growth phase and has the following financial characteristics:
Return on Assets = 25%
Dividend Payout Ratio = 7%
Debt/Equity Ratio = 10%
Interest rate on Debt = 8.5%
Corporate tax rate = 40%
It is expected to become a stable firm in ten years.
A. What is the expected growth rate for the high-growth phase?
B. Would you expect the financial characteristics of the firm to change once it reaches a steady state? What form do you expect the change to take?
C. Assume now that the industry averages for larger, more stable firms in the industry are as follows:
Industry Average Return on Assets = 14%
Industry Average Debt/Equity Ratio = 40%
Industry Average Interest Rate on Debt = 7%
Industry Average Dividend Payout ratio = 50%
D. What would you expect the growth rate in the stable growth phase to be?
Question 7 - Weighting Different Estimates of Growth Rate
The following are a number of
iii. How does the average annual growth rate you calculated in (ii) above compare to the average growth rate the U.S. normally expects?
a. The company wouldn’t produce replicas and change their business model (sales are still increasing roughly 20% each year)
Here, in the given pro forma in Exhibit 8, the cost of salt and other in 1984 was 1836 while that in 1983 is 1956. Thus, the growth rate is (1956-1836)/1836=6.6%.
The change in the growth assumption has significant impact on the stock price. Under the high estimate of growth rate 236%, the new price per share is $107.56. Under the low estimate of growth rate 35%, the new price per share is $2.36.
How much value do you expect to be created by operating improvements and capital structure changes envisioned by CD&R?
b. If the company had set a goal of increasing sales by 28% during the next five years, what should be the sales goal for 2008? 4,113,223.68
a) How many shares will the firm have to issue, assuming they issue the new shares at the current price per share?
1. In the last five years the growth in sales for the company has been around 10% per annum, except for the 1997, the growth was 18.78%. In the case, nothing is mentioned that company has made any drastic changes in its strategy to grow faster. In such a scenario, projected a consistent growth of 20% per annum for the next 5 years is too optimistic.
The valuation process, in this case, requires us to estimate the short-run non-constant growth rate and predict future dividends. Then, we must estimate a constant long-term growth rate at which the firm is expected to grow. Generally, we assume that after a certain point of time, all firms begin to grow at a rather constant rate. Of course, the difficulty in this framework is estimating the short-term growth rate, how long the short-term growth will hold, and the long-term growth rate.
a. What risk-free rate and risk premium did you use to calculate the cost of equity?
similar to that of share buyback, the number of new shares outstanding will reduce; thus,
Using this growth rate we calculated a terminal value of $6782.88 and a PV(terminal value) of $4698.39:
Then, we can get growth rates of 2007 -2011 are 2.46%, 1.76%, 4.09%, 3.61% and 2.78% respectively. Finally, we take the average growth rate of 2.94% as long-term growth rate. The computation is showed in Exhibit 2($ in thousands).