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Fiscal and Monetary Policy Behavior over the Business Cycle

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Introduction: According to Kenya’s geopolitical and economics situation, applying monetary-fiscal policy mix is mutually reinforcing and therefore more effective. Failure to coordinate these policies is potentially dangerous as it may lead to slow growth of the economy and cause surges in inflation. Our research seeks to address the following specific questions:
• How does the fiscal policy behave over the business cycle? • How does the monetary policy behave over the business cycle?
1 MONETARY POLICY:
- The key monetary policy objective is to maintain price stability - In 2011, the country faced substantial inflationary pressure that was exacerbated by high international oil prices, drought conditions and exchange rate depreciation. - As a result, the rate of inflation increased to a peak of 19.72% in November 2011, prompting the Central Bank (CB) of Kenya to adopt a tight monetary stance. At that time, Central Bank Rate (CBR) was about 6.25%, therefore, to reduce the inflation rate, the CB of Kenya should increase the CBR up to 16-18% in December 2011. - From then, to balance out the economic outlook, the CBR should be slightly decreased till August 2012 the CBR should be about 13%. - The easing of the monetary policy is being in response to improve the inflation outlook. - If we increase the CBR, M2 will be increased but M1 will be decreased so that the price will drop and the inflation rate will decline. - But when we raise the interest rate too

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