Five years ago, who’d have thought Donald Trump could become the most powerful person in the world? Truth may be stranger than fiction, but if there’s any lesson here, it’s that too many people prefer fiction to the truth. Conspiracy theories have gripped the public imagination to such an extent that an armchair crank stands at the White House lawn.
Preening himself at the mirror of his nation’s prejudices and delusions of grandeur, his policies of extreme nationalism, and protectionism, are founded upon conspiracy and misinformation.
His self-professed “straight talking” starts with a “that’s good” or a “that’s bad”, and then proceeds in a linear stream of consciousness resulting in whatever course of action would “make American great
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Closer to home, we have One Nation’s Malcolm Roberts who’s still enthralled by the vintage conspiracy theory that Jewish International Bankers control the world. He may have read Pauline Hanson’s ironically titled book, The Truth, in which supported to the crazy paranoia about the “New World Order”.
Since that déjà vu moment, when her quavering falsetto echoed through the Senate chamber, informing us that we’re in danger of being swamped by Muslims (not Asians), her support has quadrupled.
Mysteriously, the conspicuous failure of Asians to overrun us since her prediction 20 years ago, hasn’t dampened Hanson’s confidence, or fatally wounded her credibility. Quite the opposite, in fact. Why is this so?
An answer may be found in the Dunning-Kruger effect: the curious phenomenon of “confident idiots” emboldened by their own ignorance, rather than cautioned by it.
The 1999 Dunning-Kruger study found those armed with low metacognitive skills grossly overestimated their own competence in metacognitive tasks. Those with test scores in the 12th percentile estimated themselves to be in the 62nd.
And so, according to David Dunning, those with intellectual deficits are often “blessed with an inappropriate confidence, buoyed by something that feels to them like
Nathanial also had difficulty with self-awareness. Self-awareness is the lack of knowledge of one’s own cognitive limitations (Toglia et al., 2013). Individuals will have deficits in recognizing errors, goal setting, impaired judgement and safety, and adjusting to obstacles (Toglia et al., 2013). For example, Nathanial would put himself into dangerous situations, disregarding
On September 11, 2001, 19 people hijacked four airliners and carried out suicide attacks against their targets.. Two of the planes crashed into the towers of the World Trade Center in New York City, the third plane hit the Pentagon just outside Washington, D.C., and the fourth crashed in a field in Pennsylvania. Over 3,000 people were killed during the attacks in New York City and Washington, D.C., including more than 400 police officers and firefighters. (“9/11 attacks”2010). The conspiracy theories started just days after the September 11, 2001 attack. The conspiracies were easy to spread fast when using the internet and they became more and more elaborate as time went on. The most popular 9/11 conspiracy theory is that 9/11 was orchestrated by the American government.
One of the most controversial events ever to occur is still being talked about to this day. September 11th, 2001 will forever go down in history as one of the most tragic disasters to hit the United States of America. It was heartbreak for all of us to see those towers fall and thousands upon thousands of American lives destroyed. One might ask themselves; didn’t everything get explained a little too quickly? Why did everyone so quickly forget the details to this tragedy? The events of September 11th, 2001 are surely going to be remembered for its brutal truth and will always remind us of the hate that we as humans can create. The events of September 11th happened so fast that lots of details were overlooked but now, six years later one
David Dunning’s mastery of the art of persuasive writing is clear in his essay “We Are All Confident Idiots.” He proposes that wisdom is inherently different from knowledge, and the more we think we know, the less we actually do. His argument is clear and driven, and backed up with examples and insurmountable evidence. His use of diction and tone amount to a sophisticated and reliable case for his claim: those with the most confidence in their ability possess the least actual skill.
Voltaire once said, “Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is an absurd one.” We live in a world that is constantly changing and does not grant the certainty that people desire. But, people want the stability of knowing what is going to happen; this is why certainty is absurd. In his essay The Surety of Fools, Daniel Kahneman provides examples of people using a phenomenon he calls the illusion of validity. These people strongly believe their actions cause a specific outcome, when in reality there is statistical evidence that shows their actions have no direct correlation with the outcome.While Kahneman argues the illusion of validity comes partially from people’s tendency to make quick decisions without fully conveying the causes, it really stems from people’s fear of uncertainty. The fear of uncertainty is deeply engrained within our society in academia and in our decision making.
President Trump is not the first to go back on his words when it comes to foreign affairs and he is definitely not the first to attempt something new when it comes to this topic where everything has been tried. Trump put forth on Monday a long awaited decision and strategy for America’s disentanglement from a nearly 16-year-old conflict with Afghanistan. It has almost been 16 years since the grueling war in Afghanistan has begun. This Friday Trump gathered top security officials to discuss possible solutions on the matter at hand. The Trump administration had already promised a new plan towards these matters. After many discussions the US president will “provide the path forward for America’s engagement in Afghanistan and South Asia”. This
In the book YOU are NOT so SMART written by David McRaney, McRamey states that the Dunning Kruger effect is simply a misconception that many people fall into. The truth is we over estimate what we really know. We all at some point in our life feel untouchable, we feel as though we know everything there is to know about a subject. This is where the Dunning Kruger effect steps in and takes over. The Dunning Kruger effect is human nature, you are good at scrabble you, won your schools spelling bee, you pride yourself on your accomplishments, so it must mean you know how to spell every word. Your great at your job, you have been doing it for years, you have moved up the ladder in the
David Dunning addresses a delicate topic in his article “We Are All Confident Idiots” Dunning portrays the truth that people have a difficult time expressing their unsure thoughts about particular subjects. Frequently, our natural fear to admit uncertainty helps us to regularly claim false opinions along with facts, carelessly ignoring the genuine knowledge of the issue. Dunning further clarifies this common mentality, he states “the incompetent are often blessed with an inappropriate confidence, buoyed by something that feels to them like knowledge.” Correspondingly, incompetence facilitates confidence, incompetence also instils us with inaccurate information. Generally, we ignore actual knowledge in order to be invited into any subject. I
The Internet has played a large role in my interest in conspiracy theories. Although I definitely do not believe all of them, they are fun to look into and are good tools for procrastination. Falling deeper into the hole that is Wikipedia, I spent a large amount of my free time “researching” them. It got to the point where I had to force myself to actually work on homework instead. However, I am not one of those crazy conspiracy theorists; I am only interested in ones that seem legit. All interesting conspiracy theories have similar qualities. A majority of them involve the government or celebrities. And depending on the theory, they are believable.
Relevance Statement: Many conspiracy buffs believe that this world is run by a group of masterful puppeteers. And that eventually we will fall into a global version of Nazi Germany under their control. This group is our own government officials.
Trump has never denied that four of his businesses have filed for bankruptcy. However, he states that filing for bankruptcy is common, and that it was intelligent of him to make the decisions when he did." Hundreds of companies" have filed for bankruptcy, Trump said during a Republican debate. "I used the law four times and made a tremendous thing. I'm in business. I did a very good job." Trump’s four bankruptcies were Chapter 11 reorganizations, which are designed to restructure businesses without shutting them down completely. The purpose is to "save" the business, as opposed to other forms of bankruptcy which would liquidate the company’s assets, according to Michael Venditto, a partner at the ReedSmith law firm who has extensive experience with Chapter 11.
Have you ever met someone who thinks they know everything when in reality they know very little? Or someone who thinks that they are smarter than what they really are. Numerous amounts of people are probably popping into your head right now. You might think that the one specific person you are thinking about has an inflated ego or that they are egotistical, which they might be, but there are real studies that show us that there are many people who "suffer" from this. A study held by Justin Kruger and David Dunning showed that the students that believed they did well on the series of tests, actually overestimated their abilities. Students that thought they did average or bad, actually turned out to do well on the series of tests. Kruger and Dunning were inspired to do this study because of McArthur Wheeler, who we will talk about later on. Although we tend to not want to believe it, most of us at some point have experienced the Dunning Kruger effect, whether it be with others, or with ourselves. Which leads me to talk about the time I experienced the Dunning Kruger effect. I thought I was clever and smart enough to hide a traffic ticket from my parents, and go through the whole court process without making a fool of myself. Obviously that was not the case. But before I jump into the story, let us talk about some background information about the
Employees who are under the Dunning-Kruger Effect continue to work at the level they consider right because their superiors do not correct their errors, assuming it to be acceptable. To illustrate the effects of a bystander to Dunning-Kruger Effect, take President Donald Trump’s advisors. President Donald Trump’s advisors have allowed him to falsely tweet countless unverified stories, including Barak Obama wiretapping the Oval Office and the Chinese lying about global warming. Even though the federal government and scientists, respectively, have disproven each story, President Trump’s advisors took no action to prevent the president from making future false remarks online. If his advisors had corrected the president under the Dunning-Kruger Effect, Trump would have corrected and improved his public image. This relationship is similar in the work environment; a leader guiding its subordinates allows for errors. If no corrections are made because managers assume that the problem would fix itself, then no change will occur. Therefore, as managers allow failure, they encourage workers to continue to descend into
Throughout history, people have attempted to come up with explanations to make sense of events which could not be comprehend, such explanations are commonly known as conspiracy theories. According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, the official definition of conspiracy theory is “a theory that explains an event or set of circumstances as the result of a secret plot by usually powerful conspirators.” These theories can range from minor events, to large scale terrorist attacks. A few well known theories include, Bill Clinton caused 9/11, the Earth is flat, and a reptilian race is planning to take over the Earth. Conspiracy theories can inflict various amount of damage, but it dependent on the conspiracy theory context. (Mckay). In an
In today’s world of indoctrination, propaganda and conspiracy theory, there is rarely a clear divide between fact and fiction. From the flat earth society to Icke’s shape shifting reptiles; for every account there is an opposite explanation and it is left to the individual to rationalise the world around them. Moreover, in the upside down and back to front west, where belief replaces reality and an estimated 40% of Europeans suffer from some form of mental illness; shape shifting reptiles and the acceptance that Clinton is demonically possessed now carries as much weight as does common sense.