Guidelines for the Arundel Partners Case Assignment
This is a group project and only one case-report should be submitted
FIN 6425 – “Arundel Case” Guidelines Nimalendran
In this case, a movie industry analyst is asked to evaluate a proposed venture in which a group of partners would purchase the sequel rights to movies produced by the major studios. Your objective is to 1) discuss and evaluate the basic concept; 2) determine the value of the sequel rights on a per-movie basis; 3) evaluate the possible upside and potential drawbacks to the proposed plan. As you will see, the ideas here incorporate elements of capital budgeting coupled with a “real options” analysis.
Please provide answers to the following questions. You
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Beyond this broad understanding, you shouldn’t worry any more about how the specific numbers were estimated – but you should understand how to interpret them. For example for The ‘Burbs, the numbers in Exhibit 7 suggest that the value of the sequel at t=3 (using the suggested 12% discount rate) is :
NPV (at t=3) = $27.3/1.12 - $24 = $0.375 million.
It follows that the NPV at t=0 can be found by discounting the above number three years at 12% -- doing so you get a value of $0.2669 million – which is an estimate of what you pay for the sequel right at t=0.
Looking at this in terms of an internal rate of return – the one year return can be calculated as ($27.3/24) – 1=.1375 or 13.75% (this number has been rounded up to .14 or 14% in Exhibit 7). Note that whenever this IRR is above 12%, the sequel will be positive NPV.
5. Assume that a maximum of ten sequels can be made in any given year (choose the sequels that are most likely to be made—for example if the main character in the film dies then a sequel is unlikely to be made) Using the same decision-tree approach, what would you estimate to be the per-movie value of the sequel rights to the entire portfolio of 99 movies released in 1989 by the six major studios?
6. Using the Black-Scholes approach, calculate the per-movie value of the sequel rights to the entire
During the period of 5 years (from 1994 to 1998), if the discount rate is 20%, Waltham plant is the only one that has a positive amount in NPV. The total net present value of this plant is approximately $6.4 million, while the other two plants have a negative number (Santa Clara: negative $3,882,499; Greenfield: negative $29,386,827).
From Exhibit 4 the NPV is about $1.5 million. There initial investment is $400,000. Without included debt payments this appears attractive. However, the NPV should include the debt payments for a useful NPV. This reduces the NPV significantly. The investors double their money and the investment appears viable.
Arundel can make money selling the rights to a higher bid. Another option to make money is by producing the sequel exercising its rights but this will depend on if the net present value of the production movies is higher than the amount of buying the rights. If the future positive cashflows are undervalued Arundel can seek an arbitrage
Free cash flows of the project for next five years can be calculated by adding depreciation values and subtracting changes in working capital from net income. In 2010, there will be a cash outflow of $2.2 million as capital expenditure. In 2011, there will be an additional one time cash outflow of $300,000 as an advertising expense. Using net free cash flow values for next five years and discount rate for discounting, NPV for the project comes out to be $2907, 100. The rate of return at which net present value becomes zero i.e.
Anne Arundel Community College (AACC) is a two-year public, community-driven institution of higher education. It is one of the oldest and largest community colleges within the state of Maryland. Anne Arundel Community College offers transfer and career associate degree programs; certificate programs; credit courses; and continuing education, workforce development and lifelong learning opportunities. AACC is a single-campus community college with a main campus in Arnold, off -campus sites at Arundel Mills in Hanover; the Glen Burnie Town Center; the Sales and Service Training Center in Arundel Mills mall; the Hotel, Culinary Arts and Tourism Institute in Glen Burnie; and the Center for Cyber and Professional Training across from Arundel
All of the cash flows are discounted back to the year of 2002 in the calculation of NPV value. With the annual cost savings of $80 from 2003 to 2007 and the integration cost of total $130, Timken’s new NPV is calculated to be -$970.42.
The discounted cash flows seems like a simpler approach, with a less complex method to compute the value of the sequels and easier to understand, both for Arundel Partners and for the studios. It requires only a few variables (inflows and costs in this example) and gives the intrinsic value of the project that is being analyzed, not a comparison against similar projects.
15. What is the Present Value (NPV) to Sterling of the base investment using FCF for 2013-2033?
If the labor cost will increase 40% in the next 10 years, that means it’ll increase 3.4% annually, so the NPV of costs will be $73,751,039.
After evaluation of the proposed acquisition of the movie sequel rights, we recommend to offer movie studios as a per-movie price to purchase the sequel rights for their entire portfolio of movies the studios are going to produce over the next year.
We assume that Arundel Partners will purchase a portfolio of films similar to one used in the analysis. The average hypothetical net inflow of the sequel ($21.57M) is used to figure out the value of the state variable for the real options model. The state variable is the average hypothetical net inflow of the sequel, discounted using a WACC of 12.36% back to 1989. Discounting back to 1989 is important because this is
With the purchase of sequel rights, what Arundel is achieving is to have a call option on the revenue that each movie brings. This helps to remove the uncertainty and risks associated with producing a movie, especially with regard to moviegoers’ taste. With the sequel right, Arundel will only exercise this option to produce a sequel if the first movie proved to be popular and the sequel is hence predicted to bring in profits. This provides downside protection, as huge losses (due to high production costs) associated with a failed movie will be avoided.
A group of investors (Arundel group) is looking into the idea of purchasing the sequel rights associated with films produced by one or more major movie studios. Movie rights are to be purchased prior to films being made. Arundel wants to come up with a decision to either purchase all the sequel rights for a studio's entire production during a specified period of time or purchase a specified number of major films. Arundel's profitability is dependent upon the price it pays for a portfolio of sequel rights. Our analysis of Arundel's proposal includes
The third scenario was ignoring the option to invest in the second-generation project and selling the equipment in year 2. We evaluated this option as a put option. First, we calculated the probabilities for going up and down based on the assumption of a risk neutral word. As a result, the probability of going upward is calculated as 0.3375 and downward probability is 0.6625. In order to determine the present value of all the sequence cash flow at the end of year 2, we calculated the upside change rate and downside change rate as 64.87% and -39.35%, respectfully. The next step is to analyze the option value by using the “Binomial Tree” method. In order to determine the present value of all the subsequence cash flow at the end of year 2, we calculated the cash flow at each node on the tree, until 2006. We discounted all the cash flow at the risk free rate at 10%. The End of Year NPV of all the subsequence cash flow at Year 2 is calculated as $7,571,752, and the selling price of the equipment at end of 2 is $4,000,000, which is the salvage value. We found the NPV of selling the machine at end of Year 2 to be -$2,951,861 as of Year 0, which is negative. The APV of the project after adding the option turned out to be -$6,321,932. This negative APV suggest that the
My interest for the Attorney Advisor position with the United States Patent & Trademark Office (USPTO) arises from my longstanding commitment to constantly improve myself. I have always enjoyed legal research, writing, and the complexities of intellectual property. I have no doubt that my enthusiasm to research, my eagerness to learn, and my strong ability to communicate clearly, work efficiently, accurately, and quickly, will make me an invaluable asset to the USPTO. I believe these traits combined with my unique skillset, developed as a result of experiences working for the Arizona Diamondbacks of Major League Baseball (Diamondbacks), Nike Inc. (Nike), and the Arizona Attorney General’s Office, Liability Management Department (AG Office)