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Jan 9, 2024

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Uploaded by erruiz_2020

Class, In a previous class, I had a student bring up the availability heuristic regarding conducting a risk assessment, and how it would be problematic as we would not take into account all pertinent information. I agree this can be problematic; however, I would argue, even without the availability heuristic being at play, we do not take into account all factors. I know this is a bit outside the discussion, but find it quite interesting in terms of human behavior. As a psychologist, I have been asked to complete risk assessments to identify whether a person is at risk for re-offense. I always say no, as I do not believe in the accuracy of risk assessments. Human behavior is not easily predicted. There has been a great deal of research on the accuracy of risk assessments, both those conducted by humans and those algorithmic approaches. A meta-analysis was conducted, that looked at predicting recidivism in sexual offenders. Results indicated "actuarial measures, in which explicit data and explicit combination rules are used to combine the data into a single score, provide more accurate predictions than unstructured measures in which neither explicit data nor explicit combination rules are specified" (Dressel & Farid, 2018). Another 9 different algorithmic approaches used to predict recidivism were reviewed, and found 8 of the 9 failed to make accurate predictions of recidivism. Another meta-analysis found only moderate levels of accuracy in predicting recidivism, and concluded decision-making in the criminal justice system, should not be made solely on these techniques. I think Alicia L. Carriquiry, director of the Center for Statistics and Applications in Forensic Evidence at Iowa State University, said it best, "Predicting the behavior of a group is easy, and we can do that….[but] when you try to predict an individual’s behavior, the error becomes gigantic to the point of being useless" (ABA, 2020). Thoughts? American Bar Association (2020). The good, bad and ugly of new risk-assessment tech in criminal justice. https://www.americanbar.org/news/abanews/aba-news-archives/2020/02/the- good--bad- and-ugly-of-new-risk-assessment-tech-in-criminal-j/

Dressel, J., & Farid, H. (2018). The accuracy, fairness, and limits of predicting recidivism. Science Advances, 4, 1-5. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aao5580

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