POLS 1120 FINAL EXAM

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Apr 3, 2024

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1 Gemmell Daniel Gemmell POLS 1120 7 December 2020 Professor Arenberg Take Home Final Exam 1. The president’s party usually loses seats in the Senate in mid-term elections. Senator Richard Burr (D-NC) has already announced his retirement. You are hired to conduct a poll to determine which candidate for U.S. Senate in North Carolina is likely to win the open seat in the general election in November 2022. What factors would you consider to assure the survey would be as accurate as possible? Would you recommend a benchmark poll? Why or why not? Would you recommend a daily tracking poll? Why or why not? Would your polls survey all North Carolina citizens, likely voters, or registered voters? Why? With Senator Richard Burr recently announcing his retirement, I have been selected to conduct a poll to determine which candidate for the U.S. Senate in North Carolina is most likely to win the open seat in 2022. Political polling has been around since the 1940s and by the 1960’s it was a widespread practice. Today, polling is the norm and it is difficult for a successful campaign for any major office which was conducted without the services of a pollster. As we see an increasing emphasis on targeted ads and social media advertising, polling is even more important to help create messages and identify target groups. Throughout the rest of this paper, I will break down how I will conduct the North Carolina Senate poll and the factors I will consider to yield the most accurate results. Media plays a strong role in informing the public about the candidates running for Senate. Campaigning through the media allows candidates to reach the largest possible audience, attempting to increase their following and support (Brewer 348). The ability to create a strong positive image in the media for their candidate increases exposure and helps their chances of winning the race. The first poll conducted for a campaign is called the benchmark poll. A good benchmark poll is essential and used as a “benchmark” to conduct accurate polls throughout the rest of the

2 Gemmell campaign cycle. Benchmark polls are used to understand what kind of support that candidates might have. They are also used to figure out how well they are known as well as if they are considered favorable or unfavorable. Benchmark polls can be a key indicator, helping an early candidate decide if they should even continue their run for office (Arenberg, Nov. 11). Most campaigns will conduct polls periodically to assess the race and if one candidate is gaining any sort of lead over another. However, in some races, polls will be conducted more often than in others. In the presidential election and critical Senate races like the North Carolina race we are polling for, polling is often done daily. Additionally, a daily tracking poll is a technique where a small sample is taken every day and accumulated into a three-day rolling average. This technique is used by candidates and media and is good for showing the averages and changes over time. Tracking polls are critical for the fine-tuning strategy for each candidate (Arenberg, Nov. 11). Therefore, we do recommend a daily tracking poll. Turnout can be much more difficult to forecast in the polls. Many people question whether it is best to poll all citizens, just likely voters, or just registered voters. The most accurate polls begin with a random sample of a relatively small number of people who are viewed as a likely representation of the whole target population. This target group would be considered registered voters or likely voters. However, it is difficult to accurately identify likely voters. In theory, polls of likely voters are more accurate than polls of registered voters (Arenberg, Nov. 11). Therefore, we will make our best effort to accurately identify and poll likely voters. In recent years, we have seen many pollsters criticized for their inability to accurately conduct polls. There are many reasons for this. Some explanations are that times are changing, response rates to phone polling are extremely low, and the “shy voter” effect that suppresses the

3 Gemmell forecast for one particular side. In the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, we saw that polls were slightly off due to “shy Trump voters” failing to disclose their preference for Trump. The American Association for Public Opinion Research found some evidence to back this theory but claimed that several other tests for the shy Trump voter theory provided no evidence to support it (Feiner). Another reasoning for this may be the fact that Trump voters may be less likely to respond to polls due to Trump’s attacks on the polls themselves, making voters more difficult to track. However, the social stigma surrounding Trump and his supporters does have the same effect as the candidates running for North Carolina Senate, so we do not expect the shy voter to be a strong factor in our polls. 2. The 2020 election was won by Joe Biden by more than 6 million votes and a 306-232 margin in the Electoral College. The president has refused to concede the election, demanded recounts, filed dozens of unsuccessful law suits, attempted to persuade state legislatures to award electors to him without reference to the popular vote in their state, called state and county officials directly to urge that the vote not be certified, blocked the transition process and repeatedly called the election “fixed,” “rigged,” and a “hoax.” Do you believe that this pattern of behavior represents a threat to American democracy? Why or why not? In your answer, distinguish between actions which the president is entitled to take and those which are outside of the norms or even the laws. Is there any remaining chance that the president will be successful in overturning the results? Explain your answer. As the chaos from the 2020 presidential election final begins to settle, Joe Biden has decisively come out victorious. Biden defeated trump by more than 6 million votes and totaling a record of more than 80 million votes. Additionally, Biden topped Trump by a margin of 306-232 in the Electoral College (Riccardi). Now, more than a month after the election which showed a decisive victory for Biden, Trump has still refused to concede. On election night, Trump took an early in key swing states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Overnight as main in ballots were counted, Biden took the lead (Solender). Although this pattern was anticipated

4 Gemmell because mail-in ballots were expected to heavily favor Biden, Trump dismissed these results, calling the election "fixed," "rigged," and a "hoax." President Trump still holds strong to his stance. He has relentlessly demanded recounts, filed dozens of unsuccessful lawsuits, attempted to persuade state legislatures to award electors to him without reference to the popular vote in their state, called state and county officials directly to urge that the vote not be certified, and has blocked the transition process. Although Trump has the legal right to challenge the results of the election in court, with no clear evidence of widespread election fraud on a scale that could change the results of the election, Trump's destabilizing rhetoric poses him as a potential threat to our democracy. Trump's decision to not yet conceded may be frowned upon by many citizens, but it is within his constitutional rights to do so. According to the 20th Amendment of the Constitution, the Candidate with the most electoral votes will become president at noon on January 20th, regardless of if their opponent conceded or not (Turak). That means that even if Trump does not concede, which he is not required to do, Biden will still become the President on January 20th. Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell insists that Trump is within his rights to challenge the election results. He says that he is allowed to look at all of the allegations of irregularities and weigh his legal options. Although there has not been widespread evidence of voter irregularities or election fraud, McConnell says that our institutions are built for this and that "We have the system in place to consider concerns" (Welle). The court system functions as a guardian of the Constitution, ensuring the American people of justice. Our country should have great confidence that our country's court systems will be able to analyze all of the evidence available and make the right decision on behalf of its citizens.

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