POLS 1120 FINAL EXAM

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1 Gemmell Daniel Gemmell POLS 1120 7 December 2020 Professor Arenberg Take Home Final Exam 1. The president’s party usually loses seats in the Senate in mid-term elections. Senator Richard Burr (D-NC) has already announced his retirement. You are hired to conduct a poll to determine which candidate for U.S. Senate in North Carolina is likely to win the open seat in the general election in November 2022. What factors would you consider to assure the survey would be as accurate as possible? Would you recommend a benchmark poll? Why or why not? Would you recommend a daily tracking poll? Why or why not? Would your polls survey all North Carolina citizens, likely voters, or registered voters? Why? With Senator Richard Burr recently announcing his retirement, I have been selected to conduct a poll to determine which candidate for the U.S. Senate in North Carolina is most likely to win the open seat in 2022. Political polling has been around since the 1940s and by the 1960’s it was a widespread practice. Today, polling is the norm and it is difficult for a successful campaign for any major office which was conducted without the services of a pollster. As we see an increasing emphasis on targeted ads and social media advertising, polling is even more important to help create messages and identify target groups. Throughout the rest of this paper, I will break down how I will conduct the North Carolina Senate poll and the factors I will consider to yield the most accurate results. Media plays a strong role in informing the public about the candidates running for Senate. Campaigning through the media allows candidates to reach the largest possible audience, attempting to increase their following and support (Brewer 348). The ability to create a strong positive image in the media for their candidate increases exposure and helps their chances of winning the race. The first poll conducted for a campaign is called the benchmark poll. A good benchmark poll is essential and used as a “benchmark” to conduct accurate polls throughout the rest of the
2 Gemmell campaign cycle. Benchmark polls are used to understand what kind of support that candidates might have. They are also used to figure out how well they are known as well as if they are considered favorable or unfavorable. Benchmark polls can be a key indicator, helping an early candidate decide if they should even continue their run for office (Arenberg, Nov. 11). Most campaigns will conduct polls periodically to assess the race and if one candidate is gaining any sort of lead over another. However, in some races, polls will be conducted more often than in others. In the presidential election and critical Senate races like the North Carolina race we are polling for, polling is often done daily. Additionally, a daily tracking poll is a technique where a small sample is taken every day and accumulated into a three-day rolling average. This technique is used by candidates and media and is good for showing the averages and changes over time. Tracking polls are critical for the fine-tuning strategy for each candidate (Arenberg, Nov. 11). Therefore, we do recommend a daily tracking poll. Turnout can be much more difficult to forecast in the polls. Many people question whether it is best to poll all citizens, just likely voters, or just registered voters. The most accurate polls begin with a random sample of a relatively small number of people who are viewed as a likely representation of the whole target population. This target group would be considered registered voters or likely voters. However, it is difficult to accurately identify likely voters. In theory, polls of likely voters are more accurate than polls of registered voters (Arenberg, Nov. 11). Therefore, we will make our best effort to accurately identify and poll likely voters. In recent years, we have seen many pollsters criticized for their inability to accurately conduct polls. There are many reasons for this. Some explanations are that times are changing, response rates to phone polling are extremely low, and the “shy voter” effect that suppresses the
3 Gemmell forecast for one particular side. In the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, we saw that polls were slightly off due to “shy Trump voters” failing to disclose their preference for Trump. The American Association for Public Opinion Research found some evidence to back this theory but claimed that several other tests for the shy Trump voter theory provided no evidence to support it (Feiner). Another reasoning for this may be the fact that Trump voters may be less likely to respond to polls due to Trump’s attacks on the polls themselves, making voters more difficult to track. However, the social stigma surrounding Trump and his supporters does have the same effect as the candidates running for North Carolina Senate, so we do not expect the shy voter to be a strong factor in our polls. 2. The 2020 election was won by Joe Biden by more than 6 million votes and a 306-232 margin in the Electoral College. The president has refused to concede the election, demanded recounts, filed dozens of unsuccessful law suits, attempted to persuade state legislatures to award electors to him without reference to the popular vote in their state, called state and county officials directly to urge that the vote not be certified, blocked the transition process and repeatedly called the election “fixed,” “rigged,” and a “hoax.” Do you believe that this pattern of behavior represents a threat to American democracy? Why or why not? In your answer, distinguish between actions which the president is entitled to take and those which are outside of the norms or even the laws. Is there any remaining chance that the president will be successful in overturning the results? Explain your answer. As the chaos from the 2020 presidential election final begins to settle, Joe Biden has decisively come out victorious. Biden defeated trump by more than 6 million votes and totaling a record of more than 80 million votes. Additionally, Biden topped Trump by a margin of 306-232 in the Electoral College (Riccardi). Now, more than a month after the election which showed a decisive victory for Biden, Trump has still refused to concede. On election night, Trump took an early in key swing states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Overnight as main in ballots were counted, Biden took the lead (Solender). Although this pattern was anticipated
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4 Gemmell because mail-in ballots were expected to heavily favor Biden, Trump dismissed these results, calling the election "fixed," "rigged," and a "hoax." President Trump still holds strong to his stance. He has relentlessly demanded recounts, filed dozens of unsuccessful lawsuits, attempted to persuade state legislatures to award electors to him without reference to the popular vote in their state, called state and county officials directly to urge that the vote not be certified, and has blocked the transition process. Although Trump has the legal right to challenge the results of the election in court, with no clear evidence of widespread election fraud on a scale that could change the results of the election, Trump's destabilizing rhetoric poses him as a potential threat to our democracy. Trump's decision to not yet conceded may be frowned upon by many citizens, but it is within his constitutional rights to do so. According to the 20th Amendment of the Constitution, the Candidate with the most electoral votes will become president at noon on January 20th, regardless of if their opponent conceded or not (Turak). That means that even if Trump does not concede, which he is not required to do, Biden will still become the President on January 20th. Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell insists that Trump is within his rights to challenge the election results. He says that he is allowed to look at all of the allegations of irregularities and weigh his legal options. Although there has not been widespread evidence of voter irregularities or election fraud, McConnell says that our institutions are built for this and that "We have the system in place to consider concerns" (Welle). The court system functions as a guardian of the Constitution, ensuring the American people of justice. Our country should have great confidence that our country's court systems will be able to analyze all of the evidence available and make the right decision on behalf of its citizens.
5 Gemmell Although it is within President Trump's rights to challenge the results of the election, Trumps' legal pursuit which lacks evidence and his recent destabilizing rhetoric poses him as a potential threat to our democracy. Trump is within his rights to pursue due process and not concede the election. However, he continues to label the election as rigged, demand recount, file lawsuits, persuade state legislatures to award electors to him, urging officials not to certify the election, and attempts to block the transition process. These actions are threatening because not only do his claims lack evidence, but this also shows that our country's leader has no faith in the constitution or its ability to due process and conduct a fair and free election. The President is always in the spotlight of the country, so their actions have a significant impact on the American people. The people look to the president wanting to hear the truth and listen for reassurance in times of distress and confusion (Brewer 307). Recently when speaking to his supporters, Trump constantly insisted that the election was rigged and urged his supporters that "We have to turn the election over" (France-Presse). There would be no issue in Trump pursuing legal action and accepting the outcome, but as he continues to lose court while providing no evidence of fraud, he is creating very divisive and dangerous rhetoric. He is urging his supporters not to accept the results, suggesting that the courts got it wrong and that the system was rigged against them (Arenberg, Nov. 6). Given that a democracy is a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives, Trump's actions suggesting that the election was not valid and refusal to accept the results pose a threat to our democracy. Trump has filed numerous lawsuits but has yet to provide strong evidence to help him win his case. Without any clear evidence, there is no chance that Trump will be able to overturn the
6 Gemmell election with his substance-free claims. Attorney General Barr recently came out and said that the Justice Department has not found evidence of widespread voter fraud that would change the outcome of the vote (Johnson). The country should have faith that the court system will determine the correct outcome. Unless any new groundbreaking evidence comes out, the outcome of the election does not seem that it will change. Trump is within his rights to pursue legal actions, but his rhetoric can be threatening to democracy at times. Regardless, citizens should be confident in our election process and our court's ability to ensure justice. 3. Many Congressional district lines across the country have been “gerrymandered.” Has this affected Congressional elections, bipartisanship and the functioning of Congress? There has been much discussion about whether and how to reduce gerrymandering. Can reforms be national, or must they be considered state by state? Consider what reforms can be undertaken to reduce gerrymandering by state legislatures and the pitfalls of such reforms as well as the role the federal courts have played to date. What should the objectives be of a fair drawing of district lines? Many Congressional district lines across the country have been “gerrymandered”. Gerrymandering can be described as the deliberate manipulation of a congressional district for a political purpose. A critical impact that gerrymandering has on the House of Representatives and House elections is that it increases the practice of gerrymandering across district lines. This is very important because the district lines decide which voters vote for which particular representative. When gerrymandering occurs, these district lines are changed which, in turn, changes the relevant voters (Arenberg, Nov. 2). This change can change the party of a district’s representative as well as their identity, priorities, and the legislative delegation as a whole. The practice of gerrymandering can serve multiple aims. In some cases, it is used to create majority-minority districts. It is also used to weaken the representation of minorities, strengthen the power of incumbent candidates, and to maximize a party’s control over a state’s
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7 Gemmell congressional delegation. We have seen the effects of gerrymandering frequently throughout our country’s history. A process called redistricting has been started occurring in 1790. This was where Congress appoints House seats in the state proportionately based on changes in the state population. The state legislature has primary control of the redistricting process in most states. This includes both state legislative districts and congressional districts. In 1962 the Reynolds vs Sims case ultimately went to the Supreme Court, requiring that districts be of roughly equal proportions, arguing based on the principle of “one person, one vote”. Chief Justice Earl Warren backed his ruling by claiming that “Legislators represent people, not trees or acres. Legislators are elected by voters, not farms or cities or economic interests” (McBride). Often, whichever party is in power at the time will attempt to create “safe seats” by drawing strangely shaped district lines. This is gerrymandering. An example of this is Illinois’ oddly shaped 4th Congressional District. As a consequence of redistricting, a state’s congressional delegation can be altered drastically. Over time, the effects of gerrymandering have gotten increasingly worse. Many have blamed redistricting for the demise of competitive congressional elections. Redistricting has made seats safer and more homogenous to Republicans and Democrats. Now there is very little incentive for candidates to play for the voters in the middle, as a result of increasing the divide over time (Areneberg, Nov. 2). There are far more politicians on one side of the political spectrum or the other, rather than vouching for those in the middle where many average citizens likely actually stand. Former moderate-Democratic Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia stated that “Both political parties have engaged in basically rigging congressional districts to the point where they are safe districts for one party or the other and I think that's detrimental to the kind of dialogue that we need for bipartisanship” (Li). Today, the
8 Gemmell effects of gerrymandering have gone so far as to protect incumbents and favoring particular parties that contested elections are becoming rarer and rarer. As the results of redistricting continued to favor particular parties, the issue went to the Supreme Court in the 2012 case of Perry vs Perez. This was concerning the favorable effect that Texas redistricting has had on the G.O.P. The Supreme Court ruled that redistricting should primarily be a job held by elected state officials, saying that “A district court should take guidance from the state’s recently enacted plan. That plan reflects the state’s policy judgments on where to place new districts and how to shift existing ones in response to massive population growth” (Perry v. Perez). Federal judges have no legal power to limit or reallocate power between two major political parties. Therefore, they aren’t allowed to take down district maps because they are helping or hurting a particular party (Arenberg, Nov. 2). In conclusion, attempting to fix the redistricting issue that gerrymandering has created is very complex. Part of the reason is that parties in the House of Representatives have very little reason to compromise, especially those that are in control. The National Development and Reform Commission has set out to attempt to solve this issue with its four-part strategy. This strategy is focused on advancing legal action, mobilizing grassroots energy, supporting reforms, and winning targeted elections (Arenberg, Nov. 2). A great solution to the issue gerrymandering has created includes creating a nonpartisan committee that is designed to create district plans with fair representation. However, there are many challenges with this that create equal representation among groups such as African Americans, Latinos, liberals, and conservatives. A nonpartisan committee is certainly a great step in the right direction, but there are certainly still many challenges and obstacles on the horizon of solving this issue.
9 Gemmell Works Cited Arenberg, Richard. “Gerrymandering and Geographic Sorting.” Campaigns & Elections. 2 Nov. 2020. Arenberg, Richard. “Gerrymandering and Geographic Sorting.” Campaigns & Elections. 6 Nov. 2020. Arenberg, Richard. “Polling and Prediction Models.” Campaigns & Elections. 11 Nov. 2020. Brewer, Mark D., and Louis Sandy Maisel. Parties and Elections in America the Electoral Process . Rowman & Littlefield, 2021. Feiner, Lauren. (2020, November 07). Pollsters face another reckoning this year, but the reasons could differ from 2016, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/07/election-pollsters-2020- reckoning.html France-Presse, Agence. “Defiant Trump Says US Election ‘Was Rigged’, Urges Supporters To ‘Turn It Over.’” NDTV.com , NDTV, 26 Nov. 2020, www.ndtv.com/world-news/defiant- us-president-donald-trump-says-election-was-rigged-urges-supporters-to-turn-it-over- 2330315. Johnson, Kevin. “Attorney General Barr: Justice Dept. Finds No Evidence of Fraud to Alter Election Outcome.” USA Today , Gannett Satellite Information Network, 3 Dec. 2020, www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/12/01/attorney-general-barr-no- evidence-widespread-election-fraud/3783305001/. Li, Michael. “What Is Extreme Gerrymandering?” Brennan Center for Justice , www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/what-extreme-gerrymandering. McBride, Alex. The Supreme Court . Expanding Civil Rights . Landmark Cases . Reynolds v. Sims (1964): PBS . www.thirteen.org/wnet/supremecourt/rights/landmark_reynolds.html.
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10 Gemmell “Perry v. Perez.” Legal Information Institute , Legal Information Institute, www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/11-713. Riccardi, Nicholas. “Biden Approaches 80 Million Votes in Historic Victory.” AP NEWS , Associated Press, 19 Nov. 2020, apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald- trump-politics-elections-372af3b89bc1f5f0f6d7f8c80025a9b0. Solender, Andrew. “Biden Pulls Ahead In Wisconsin As Mail Ballots Diminish Trump's Lead In Key States.” Forbes , Forbes Magazine, 4 Nov. 2020, www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2020/11/04/biden-pulls-ahead-in-wisconsin-as- mail-ballots-diminish-trumps-lead-in-key-states/?sh=6b671fbbd29a. Turak, Natasha. “What If Trump Never Concedes? The Constitution Will End His Term, Conservative Lawyer John Yoo Says.” CNBC , CNBC, 12 Nov. 2020, www.cnbc.com/2020/11/12/constitution-will-end-trumps-term-if-he-doesnt-concede-john- yoo.html. Welle, Deutsche. “After Biden Win, Senate's McConnell Says Trump Has Right to Challenge Results: DW: 09.11.2020.” DW.COM , www.dw.com/en/after-biden-win-senates- mcconnell-says-trump-has-right-to-challenge-results/a-55549985.