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6.3 Group Project: Swissgrid Deliverable 3
Daniela Cedeno, Greer Koerner, Marcel Melo, Thomas Vining
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
HROM 510 – Enterprise Risk Management
Professor Chris Mandel
November 27, 2022
2
Case 1 – Potential changes in government policy that decreases depreciation by 40% per year.
In Segal’s value-based ERM approach, risk can be defined as well as quantified through any deviation from expectations. Such risks have an impact on the baseline company value. One of the risks that Meyers took into consideration when creating Swissgrid’s ERM framework, is regulatory risk such as new rules affecting TSOs (Kaplan & Mikes, 2018) or government subsidy
of renewable energy production (Kaplan & Mikes, 2018).
Potential changes to government policies is a deviation from expectation that may decrease depreciation by 40% every year. The table below highlights the potential impact of government policies to Swissgrid’s cash flow:
Cash Flow = Net Income + Depreciation and Amortization
Table 1: Cash Flow after 40% decrease in depreciation
Swiss grid Financial Summary
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Depreciation PPE
48.78
60.3
68.16
65.34
64.6
66.0
65.3
65.3
65.6
65.4
Amortization of intangible assets
23.4
18.8
18.1
35.3
24.1
25.8
28.4
26.1
26.8
27.1
Net Income
113.0
128.2
137.3
145.8
95.6
98.2
100.9
103.6
106.4
109.3
Cash flows*
185.2
207.3
223.6
246.4
184.3
190.1
194.6
195.0
198.7
201.8
Table 2 highlights the changes in cash flow before and after the 40% decrease in depreciation.
Swiss grid Financial Summary
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Cash flows (BEFORE)
185.2
207.3
223.6
246.4
227.4
234.1
238.2
238.6
242.4
245.4
Cash flows (AFTER)
185.2
207.3
223.6
246.4
184.3
190.1
194.6
195.0
198.7
201.8
Impact of the risk to the company value
Using the terminal value formula, we can calculate the company value at the end of the 6th year. This formula assumes that the cash flow from the 6th year of the projection will continue to grow annually at a constant growth rate (Segal, 2011).
Terminal Value = Year 6 Cash Flow
(
r − g
)
3
Due to the 40% depreciation decrease, the company value decreases from 41,965.21 to 34,500.59. Additionally, the price per share reduces from 133.22 to 109.53.
Case 2 – Environmental issues and new projects that will result in future growth in gross profit. One of the key criteria of a robust ERM framework is that it only focuses on the major risks to the company’s value (Segal, 2011) and those that have a higher likelihood of occurring. In Swissgrid’s case, option 2 will have the biggest risk to company value as it has a 75% probability of occurring and will result in 4.2% growth in profit. The table below highlights the potential impact of the environmental issues and new projects to Swissgrid’s cash flow.
Changes to Cash Flow
Cash Flow = Net Income + Depreciation and Amortization
Table: cash flow after 4.2% increase Gross Profit
Swiss grid Financial Summary
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Depreciation PPE
81.3
100.5
113.6
108.9
107.7
110.1
108.9
108.9
109.3
109.0
Amortization of intangible assets
23.4
18.8
18.1
35.3
24.1
25.8
28.4
26.1
26.8
27.1
Net Income
80.5
88.0
91.9
102.2
97.0
101.1
105.4
109.8
114.4
119.2
Cash flows*
185.2
207.3
223.6
246.4
228.8
237.0
242.6
244.8
250.4
255.3
Table: Comparison cash flow baseline and after 4.2% increase Gross Profit
Swiss grid Financial Summary
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Cash flows* (BEFORE)
185.2
207.3
223.6
246.4
227.4
234.1
238.2
238.6
242.4
245.4
Cash flows* (AFTER)
185.2
207.3
223.6
246.4
228.8
237.0
242.6
244.8
250.4
255.3
Table: Change in gross profits (baseline to 75% prob 4.2% growth)
Swiss grid Financial Summary
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Gross Profit (BEFORE)
477.1
486.8
498.9
517.4
531.4
545.7
560.5
575.6
591.1
607.1
Gross Profit (AFTER)
477.1
486.8
498.9
517.4
539.1
561.8
585.4
610.0
635.6
662.3
Impact of the risk to the company value
Terminal Value = Year 6 Cash Flow
(
r − g
)
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Question 1 (10 points)
The Internal Rate of Return is a financial measure that allows us to estimate:
a
The nominal value of the returns on a project.
b
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Activity 1
Standard deviation versus coefficient of variation as measures of risk.
Bluecage, Inc., a successful pre-school, is considering several expansion projects. All of the
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Project Expected return Range Standard deviation
12.0%
.040
.029
12.5
.050
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13.0
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.035
12.8
.045
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a. Which project is least risky, judging based on range?
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Description
20.12 Suppose that there is a 1% probability that operational risk losses of a certain type exceed
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Question 1: Salalalh Methanol company management is considering three competing
investment Projects A, B & C
Year
Initial Investment
1
2
Project A Project B
12000
4150
Project C
12000
12000
5225
8250
1200
3100
3800
4600
Assume a discount Rate of 5.45 %
5260
7360
9460
9275
9300
4
Use the information above and help the management in choosing the most desirable
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answer #2 please
inl
Year
6
7 Currently, the investor's required rate of return
8
9 Please compute the project's NPV (hint: it is positive).
10
1 What if interest rates in the broad economy went up.
2 and also the firm became riskier? Investors would
323
1234
3 require a higher rate of return.
24
32
Cash Flows
-5,881
1,551
1,635
1,722
2,029
25 1. Suppose the required rate increases 2%.
26 How much would the NPV drop?
27 A Between 200 and 270
28 B Between 270 and 280
29 C Between 280 and 290
30 D Between 290 and 300
31
33
34
35 2. Should the firm still accept the project?
36 A Yes
37 B No
6.0%
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CD
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O Projects CD and CH shouid be pchased, because they both have RRs greater than 12 percen.
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Project A Project B
12000
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5260
Project C
12000
12000
1200
3100
5225
3
4
Assume a discount Rate of 5.45 %
3800
4600
7360
9460
8250
9275
9300
Use the information above and help the management in choosing the most desirable
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Assume you are risk-averse and have the following three choices.
Standard
Deviation
ABC
Expected
Value
$ 2,790
2,860
2,200
A
B
с
$ 1,670
1,520
630
a. Compute the coefficient of variation for each.
Note: Round your answers to 3 decimal places.
Coefficient of
Variation
b. Which project will you select?
O Project A
O Project B
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Ziege Systems is considering the following independent projects for the next year.
REQUIRED RATE OF
INVESTMENT RETURN
$4 million
14.0%
$5 million
11.5
$3 million
9.5
9.0
12.5
12.5
7.0
11.5
PROJECT
A
B
C
D
EFGH
H
$2 million
$6 million
$5 million
$6 million
$3 million
RISK
High
High
Low
Average
High
Average
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Calculate the IRR for a project having the following cashflows:
following 85-2023
Year
2
3
4
(RS) 20123n19
27,000 7,500
7,500
202 The e
The exact value is not required, just the range in which the IRR lies. Do the calculations manually. Don't use Excel.
7,500 7,500
7,500
20212 Just the
202
hence you have to write your answer in the Text Field given below.
Cashflow
[3]
5
202123nt019-87185-
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Question 24
Cornell Enterprises is considering a project that has the following cash flow and WACC data. What is the project's NPV? Note that a project's projected
NPV can be negative, in which case it will be rejected.
WACC:
10.00%
Year
1
Cash flows
-$825
$450
$460
$470
O $282.46
O $317.37
O $323.72
O $266.59
O $393.54
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O00
000
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DII
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MENT I
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Economic Boom
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16%
Economic Growth
45%
12%
Economic Decline
25%
5%
Depression
15%
-10%
Calculate the standard deviation for this investment.
Select one:
O a. 6.46%
O b. 8.21%
O C. 10.07%
O d. 11.17%
O e. 11.63%
bp
近
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A. Accounting rate of return
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C. NPV
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A. What quantity (dollar value) of risk is generated by a threat that will cause $5,000,000 in
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Exhibit 2.3A
Examp'e Comparing Two Projects Using the Payback Method
Project A
Project B
Formulas
Investment
Annual saving
5750,000
5215,000
$250.000
580,000
Project A Payback 07/D8)
Project B Payback (7/P8)
Payback Period"
Rate of Return"*
Project A: Rate of Return (06/D7)
Project D. Rate of Return (F8/P7)
Accept/Reject
Exclanetion
Project A
Accept/Reject Accept is Payback<5 Years and Rate of Return 15%
Project B
* Note: Parbnck does not use she time valce of money
** Note: Rate of returnis reciprocalof Fayback
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Risk and probability Micro-Pub, Inc., is considering the purchase of one of two microfilm cameras, R and S. Both should provide benefits over a 10-year period, and
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and optimistic results:
a. Determine the range for the rate of return for each of the two cameras.
b. Determine the value of the expected return for each camera.
c. Which camera purchase is riskier? Why?
a. The range for the rate of return for camera R is %. (Round to the nearest whole number.)
Financial calculator
Data table
(Click on the icon here in order to copy the contents of the data table below into
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Initial investment
Annual rate of return
Pessimistic
Most likely
Optimistic
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Probability Amount Probability
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212F4b2fdONuXXgZX2DTmgiz56EF3A
Subject Test
Note: -
You are attempting question 4 out of 12
The company is considering two projects. The initial investment in the Project A and B
are $50,000 and $60,000 respectively. The Project A will generate annual cash flows of
$26,000 for four years and the Project B will generate annual cash flows of $30,000 for
four years. What must be the required rate of return, so that the company will be
indifferent between these two projects?
(A)The required rate of return must be 21.86%.
(B) The required rate of return must be 37.42%.
(C) The required rate of return must be 34.90%.
(D)The required rate of return must be 31.39%.
Answer
O A
OB
OD
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ch
A project with an initial investment of $88000 and a profitability index of 1.239 also has an internal rate of return of 12%. The present
value of net cash flows is
O $71025.
O $98560.
O $88000.
O $109032.
Save for Later
O
Et
V
B
21
E
7
Attempts: 0 of 1 used Submit Answer
F12
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A firm has two potential investment projects. The project information is summarised in the table
below.
Project A
$670
Project B
$700
Expected value of profit
Standard deviation of profit
Coefficient of variation of profit
175
370
0.26
0.53
Which project has a lower absolute risk level? Which project has a lower relative risk level? Which
project would you advise the firm to choose? Explain your answers.
---- --- ---- ..- ---
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3
https://pwcollege.brightspace.com/d21/le/content/6894/viewContent/7549/View?ou=6894
T 01 2
Cost
Pay Back and NPV
A company is considering investing in a project to expand the facilities for customers. There are two
different ways of doing this and they have each been costed. Projected net cash flow into the company
has also been estimated.
Project 2
£115,000.00
Year
Expected Contributions
1
3
4
Automatic Zoom
5
Project 1
£120,000.00
6
£50,000.00 £40,000.00
£50,000.00 £45,000.00
£50,000.00 £50,000,00
£40,000.00
£40,000.00 £45,000.00
£30,000.00
a. If the company used the payback method, when does each project pay for itself?
b.
If the company were to employ a discount rate of 12%, what would be the NPV of each project?
CIRR
to
> A
view as TexT DOWI
£50,000.00
£30,000.00
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12
nts
3
03:38:35
eBook
Hint
Print
eferences
Your firm is contemplating the purchase of a new $580,000 computer-based order entry
system. The system will be depreciated straight-line to zero over its five-year life. It will
be worth $92,000 at the end of that time. You will be able to reduce working capital by
$117,000 (this is a one-time reduction). The tax rate is 24 percent and the required return
on the project is 12 percent.
If the pretax cost savings are $150,000 per year, what is the NPV of this project? (Do not
round intermediate calculations and round your answer to 2 decimal places, e.g.,
32.16.)
NPV
Will you accept or reject the project?
Reject
Accept
If the pretax cost savings are $115,000 per year, what is the NPV of this project? (A
negative answer should be indicated by a minus sign. Do not round intermediate
calculations and round your answer to 2 decimal places, e.g., 32.16.)
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Question 15
Company 15 is considering undertaking a new project. The financial controller has
computed Net Present Value (NPV) of the project at two different discount rates.
The NPV at a discount rate of 12% is £4,700 positive and at a discount rate of 20%,
it is £7,400 negative. You are required to compute the Internal Rate of Return
(IRR) using linear interpolation or extrapolation.
The Internal Rate of Return of this project is which of the following:
A
23.1%
B
16.9%
C
15.1%
D
8.9%
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- Title 20.12 Suppose that there is a 1% probability that operational risk losses of a certain type exceed... Description 20.12 Suppose that there is a 1% probability that operational risk losses of a certain type exceed $10 million. Use the power law to estimate the 99.97% worst-case operational risk loss when the α parameter equals (a) 0.25, (b) 0.5, (c) 0.9, and (d) 1.0.arrow_forwardQuestion 1: Salalalh Methanol company management is considering three competing investment Projects A, B & C Year Initial Investment 1 2 Project A Project B 12000 4150 Project C 12000 12000 5225 8250 1200 3100 3800 4600 Assume a discount Rate of 5.45 % 5260 7360 9460 9275 9300 4 Use the information above and help the management in choosing the most desirable Project using Payback period, Discounted payback Net Present value and Profitability Index. Out of the four methods which is considered to be the most desirable. Explainarrow_forwardanswer #2 please inl Year 6 7 Currently, the investor's required rate of return 8 9 Please compute the project's NPV (hint: it is positive). 10 1 What if interest rates in the broad economy went up. 2 and also the firm became riskier? Investors would 323 1234 3 require a higher rate of return. 24 32 Cash Flows -5,881 1,551 1,635 1,722 2,029 25 1. Suppose the required rate increases 2%. 26 How much would the NPV drop? 27 A Between 200 and 270 28 B Between 270 and 280 29 C Between 280 and 290 30 D Between 290 and 300 31 33 34 35 2. Should the firm still accept the project? 36 A Yes 37 B No 6.0%arrow_forward
- Clear Contacts is evaluating the following Independernt projects Project IRR Risk CD 15.0% High Average Low GH 13.0 RS 10.5 Clear's policy is to adjust its average required rate of returm, which equals 12 percent, when the risk associeted with a project is determined to be either higher-than- average or lower-than-average. The adjustment for higher-than-average risk projects is 4 percent and the ad ustment for lower-than-average nsk projects is 2 percent Which projectis) should Ciear purchase? O Projects CD and CH shouid be pchased, because they both have RRs greater than 12 percen. O Pojects GH and RS should be purchased O Only Preject Co should be purchased, becase has the highest RR O None of the perojects should be perchased. O Only Project RS should be purchased. Greater Good Glass (GGG) plans to issue a new bond with a coupon rate of interest equal to the yield to matunity (YTM) on its existing bond. The existing bond, which was issued five years ago, has a coupon rate of…arrow_forwardQuestion 1: Salalalh Methanol company management is considering three competing investment Projects A, B & C Year Initial Investment Project A Project B 12000 4150 5260 Project C 12000 12000 1200 3100 5225 3 4 Assume a discount Rate of 5.45 % 3800 4600 7360 9460 8250 9275 9300 Use the information above and help the management in choosing the most desirable Project using Payback periodarrow_forwardProblem 13-1 (Algo) Risk-averse [LO13-2] Assume you are risk-averse and have the following three choices. Standard Deviation ABC Expected Value $ 2,790 2,860 2,200 A B с $ 1,670 1,520 630 a. Compute the coefficient of variation for each. Note: Round your answers to 3 decimal places. Coefficient of Variation b. Which project will you select? O Project A O Project B O Project Carrow_forward
- Problem 1 Ziege Systems is considering the following independent projects for the next year. REQUIRED RATE OF INVESTMENT RETURN $4 million 14.0% $5 million 11.5 $3 million 9.5 9.0 12.5 12.5 7.0 11.5 PROJECT A B C D EFGH H $2 million $6 million $5 million $6 million $3 million RISK High High Low Average High Average Low Low The company estimates that its WACC is currently 10%. The company adjusts for risk by adding 2% for WACC for high-risk projects and subtracting 2 % from the WACC (discount rate) for low-risk projects. a. Which projects should Ziege accept if it faces no capital constraints ? b. If Ziege only has the ability to invest a total of $13 million, which projects should it accept?arrow_forward3/11Peston No. 03 This is a subjective question, hen 9-87185 023/21/26-2021 Calculate the IRR for a project having the following cashflows: following 85-2023 Year 2 3 4 (RS) 20123n19 27,000 7,500 7,500 202 The e The exact value is not required, just the range in which the IRR lies. Do the calculations manually. Don't use Excel. 7,500 7,500 7,500 20212 Just the 202 hence you have to write your answer in the Text Field given below. Cashflow [3] 5 202123nt019-87185-arrow_forward15 at 10:20pm nstructions Question 24 Cornell Enterprises is considering a project that has the following cash flow and WACC data. What is the project's NPV? Note that a project's projected NPV can be negative, in which case it will be rejected. WACC: 10.00% Year 1 Cash flows -$825 $450 $460 $470 O $282.46 O $317.37 O $323.72 O $266.59 O $393.54 1 Previous Next 20 O00 000 E1 DII F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 F10 %23 $ % & 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Q W R T A S D G I 3.arrow_forward
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