Cedeno, Koerner, Melo, Vining- 6

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Apr 3, 2024

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1 6.3 Group Project: Swissgrid Deliverable 3 Daniela Cedeno, Greer Koerner, Marcel Melo, Thomas Vining Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University HROM 510 – Enterprise Risk Management Professor Chris Mandel November 27, 2022
2 Case 1 – Potential changes in government policy that decreases depreciation by 40% per year. In Segal’s value-based ERM approach, risk can be defined as well as quantified through any deviation from expectations. Such risks have an impact on the baseline company value. One of the risks that Meyers took into consideration when creating Swissgrid’s ERM framework, is regulatory risk such as new rules affecting TSOs (Kaplan & Mikes, 2018) or government subsidy of renewable energy production (Kaplan & Mikes, 2018). Potential changes to government policies is a deviation from expectation that may decrease depreciation by 40% every year. The table below highlights the potential impact of government policies to Swissgrid’s cash flow: Cash Flow = Net Income + Depreciation and Amortization Table 1: Cash Flow after 40% decrease in depreciation Swiss grid Financial Summary 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Depreciation PPE 48.78 60.3 68.16 65.34 64.6 66.0 65.3 65.3 65.6 65.4 Amortization of intangible assets 23.4 18.8 18.1 35.3 24.1 25.8 28.4 26.1 26.8 27.1 Net Income 113.0 128.2 137.3 145.8 95.6 98.2 100.9 103.6 106.4 109.3 Cash flows* 185.2 207.3 223.6 246.4 184.3 190.1 194.6 195.0 198.7 201.8 Table 2 highlights the changes in cash flow before and after the 40% decrease in depreciation. Swiss grid Financial Summary 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Cash flows (BEFORE) 185.2 207.3 223.6 246.4 227.4 234.1 238.2 238.6 242.4 245.4 Cash flows (AFTER) 185.2 207.3 223.6 246.4 184.3 190.1 194.6 195.0 198.7 201.8 Impact of the risk to the company value Using the terminal value formula, we can calculate the company value at the end of the 6th year. This formula assumes that the cash flow from the 6th year of the projection will continue to grow annually at a constant growth rate (Segal, 2011). Terminal Value = Year 6 Cash Flow ( r g )
3 Due to the 40% depreciation decrease, the company value decreases from 41,965.21 to 34,500.59. Additionally, the price per share reduces from 133.22 to 109.53. Case 2 – Environmental issues and new projects that will result in future growth in gross profit. One of the key criteria of a robust ERM framework is that it only focuses on the major risks to the company’s value (Segal, 2011) and those that have a higher likelihood of occurring. In Swissgrid’s case, option 2 will have the biggest risk to company value as it has a 75% probability of occurring and will result in 4.2% growth in profit. The table below highlights the potential impact of the environmental issues and new projects to Swissgrid’s cash flow. Changes to Cash Flow Cash Flow = Net Income + Depreciation and Amortization Table: cash flow after 4.2% increase Gross Profit Swiss grid Financial Summary 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Depreciation PPE 81.3 100.5 113.6 108.9 107.7 110.1 108.9 108.9 109.3 109.0 Amortization of intangible assets 23.4 18.8 18.1 35.3 24.1 25.8 28.4 26.1 26.8 27.1 Net Income 80.5 88.0 91.9 102.2 97.0 101.1 105.4 109.8 114.4 119.2 Cash flows* 185.2 207.3 223.6 246.4 228.8 237.0 242.6 244.8 250.4 255.3 Table: Comparison cash flow baseline and after 4.2% increase Gross Profit Swiss grid Financial Summary 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Cash flows* (BEFORE) 185.2 207.3 223.6 246.4 227.4 234.1 238.2 238.6 242.4 245.4 Cash flows* (AFTER) 185.2 207.3 223.6 246.4 228.8 237.0 242.6 244.8 250.4 255.3 Table: Change in gross profits (baseline to 75% prob 4.2% growth) Swiss grid Financial Summary 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Gross Profit (BEFORE) 477.1 486.8 498.9 517.4 531.4 545.7 560.5 575.6 591.1 607.1 Gross Profit (AFTER) 477.1 486.8 498.9 517.4 539.1 561.8 585.4 610.0 635.6 662.3 Impact of the risk to the company value Terminal Value = Year 6 Cash Flow ( r g )
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