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INFECTIOUS OUTBREAK ON VOTER INTENTIONS JENNI JOHNSON Summary The specific hypothesis researchers tested in this study was that increased internet searchers for “Ebola” would predict high intentions to vote Republican compared to Democratic. Two variables were measured to test this hypothesis, the first one being the Ebola search volume index and voter-intention index from nonpartisan polling organizations. Ebola searches are the predictor variable while voter intentions are the criterion variable. A criterion variable is the dependent variable, the researchers trying to determine if voter intention is dependent on Ebola internet searchers. A predictor variable is what is used to determine a relationship, that is Ebola searchers predict voter intentions. Results The bivariate correlation coefficient is .51 this is a positive correlation, any correlation coefficient above .50 is considered strong with a perfect correlation being 1, therefore this correlation is also strong. The p-value for the correlation between voter intention and Ebola searches was .012 which is less than .05 making the correlation statistically significant. A positive correlation between these two variables is when Ebola internet searches increase, voter intentions to vote Republican also increase. Their hypothesis was supported as they had also predicted that increased internet searchers for “Ebola” would predict high intentions to vote Republican. The effect size is .26, the effect size or the coefficient of determination explains the proportion of variance that the two variables have in common. In this case, that means 26% of the variance observed in internet searches of Ebola is shared with the voter's intentions to vote for Republican candidates. The article concludes that an association between Ebola and increased support for voting for a republican candidate. However, this was true in states that favored republican opinions. States that favored democratic states found the same but the opposite, that is Ebola had an association with increased support for democratic candidates.

INFECTIOUS OUTBREAK ON VOTER INTENTIONS JENNI JOHNSON Critique and Discussion This was a correlational study, compared to an experimental study, because neither of the two variables were manipulated, but rather measured. It would be unethical to manipulate either of these variables. A t-test was the appropriate test to analyze this data because t-tests are used to compare the means of two groups. Two t-tests were used to determine the difference in voter intention and Ebola searches from the whole month and the week immediately following/ proceeding with the outbreak. This analysis tested an association effect rather than a causal effect because regression analysis was used for correlation or association effects to predict a relationship. Results showed that compared to Democratic there was more support for republican candidates following the Ebola outbreak than preceding the outbreak p=.001. Even more so, there was even greater support for republican candidates during the week immediately after the outbreak than the week immediately before the outbreak p=.005. These correlation differences between pre-outbreak and post-outbreak and voter intentions are statistically significant as all p values were less than .05, which also demonstrates statistical validity. Scatterplots The scatterplot for September is negative, meaning as the days increase (or the later in the month it is) voter intention to vote Republican decreases. The data points are very close to the regression line, which means there is a strong effect size. A regression line minimizes error in a prediction, that is with the regression line researchers are least likely to be wrong about the prediction. The scatterplot for October is positive, meaning as the days increase (or the later in the month it is) voter intention to vote Republican increases. The data points are very close to the regression line in October as well, which means there is a strong effect size. Results for Voter Intention Change Index

INFECTIOUS OUTBREAK ON VOTER INTENTIONS JENNI JOHNSON The effect size was .79, which means that 79% of the variance observed in the voter intention change index is shared with voter intentions to vote Republican. The p-value for ISIS- search- volume-index was 0.855 which is greater than 0.05 meaning there it is not statistically different, and no relationship exists. DJIA or the economic concern of the stock market declining p-value was 0.047 which is less than 0.05 meaning there is a statistically significant difference, and a relationship does exist. Therefore, the beta can be interpreted as, for every 1 standard deviation unit decrease in the stock market, support for republican candidates decreases by 0.46 standard deviations, when controlled for Ebola and ISIS. The p-value for Ebola searches was p=0.001 which is less than 0.05 meaning there is a statistically significant difference, and a relationship does exist. Therefore, the beta can be interpreted as, for every 1 standard deviation unit increase in Ebola searches, support for republican candidates increases by 1.21 standard deviations, when controlled for DJIA and ISIS. This predictor was the best for voting intentions because the beta was higher, the higher the beta the stronger the effect, therefore it is the best predictor. The beta representing the relationship between Ebola searches and voter intentions in the multiple regression is different from the bivariate correlation between these two variables because the multiple regression also considers ISIS and the stock market that might affect the Y or intentions to vote Republican. While the bivariate only considers the predictor on the criterion. Criteria There are three criteria to make a strong agreement that X causes Y. The first one is covariation which means that an association exists. The second one is temporal precedence which means the cause must come before the effect. The last one is internal validity which means there is no other plausible explanation for the effect, that is the cause causes the dependent nothing else. This study provides evidence to support covariation as the bivariate

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INFECTIOUS OUTBREAK ON VOTER INTENTIONS JENNI JOHNSON correlation test between voter intentions and Ebola internet searches came back with a p-value of p=0.012 which is statistically significant and proves an association which is covariation. Temporal precedence is also proven as the effect of voter intentions to vote more Republican come after a high volume of Ebola searches which is proven by the bivariate results. Internal validity was slightly proven as ISIS was determined to be not statistically significant with a p- value of 0.855. The stock market economic concern was statistically significant with a p-value of 0.047, however, this is very close to 0.05 which would make it not significant. These are the two other plausible events that could explain the effect on voter intentions to favor Republican candidates. However, there are still other outside explanations that weren’t tested that could affect voter intentions. Future Direction To test external validity, a similar study could be conducted but with the more recent pandemic Covid-19 and the 2020 election. Both variables would be measured and not manipulated. I would predict that a pandemic will cause a change in favored candidates, that is what was popular last election won't be popular this election. This would extend the knowledge on the topic as it will illustrate in another aspect how a pandemic can influence a political election. This would also include more recent data on an infection virus that influenced two different presidential terms.

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