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INFECTIOUS OUTBREAK ON VOTER INTENTIONS JENNI JOHNSON
Summary
The specific hypothesis researchers tested in this study was that increased internet searchers for “Ebola” would predict high intentions to vote Republican compared to Democratic.
Two variables were measured to test this hypothesis, the first one being the Ebola search volume index and voter-intention index from nonpartisan polling organizations. Ebola searches are the predictor variable while voter intentions are the criterion variable. A criterion variable is the dependent variable, the researchers trying to determine if voter intention is dependent on Ebola internet searchers. A predictor variable is what is used to determine a relationship, that is Ebola searchers predict voter intentions.
Results
The bivariate correlation coefficient is .51 this is a positive correlation, any correlation coefficient above .50 is considered strong with a perfect correlation being 1, therefore this correlation is also strong. The p-value for the correlation between voter intention and Ebola searches was .012 which is less than .05 making the correlation statistically significant.
A positive correlation between these two variables is when Ebola internet searches increase, voter intentions to vote Republican also increase. Their hypothesis was supported as they had also predicted that increased internet searchers for “Ebola” would predict high intentions to vote Republican. The effect size is .26, the effect size or the coefficient of determination explains the proportion of variance that the two variables have in common. In this case, that means 26% of the variance observed in internet searches of Ebola is shared with the voter's intentions to vote for Republican candidates. The article concludes that an association between Ebola and increased support for voting for a republican candidate. However, this was true in states that favored republican opinions. States that favored democratic states found the same but the opposite, that is Ebola had an association with increased support for democratic candidates.
INFECTIOUS OUTBREAK ON VOTER INTENTIONS JENNI JOHNSON
Critique and Discussion
This was a correlational study, compared to an experimental study, because neither of the
two variables were manipulated, but rather measured. It would be unethical to manipulate either of these variables. A t-test was the appropriate test to analyze this data because t-tests are used to
compare the means of two groups. Two t-tests were used to determine the difference in voter intention and Ebola searches from the whole month and the week immediately following/ proceeding with the outbreak. This analysis tested an association effect rather than a causal effect
because regression analysis was used for correlation or association effects to predict a relationship. Results showed that compared to Democratic there was more support for republican
candidates following the Ebola outbreak than preceding the outbreak p=.001. Even more so, there was even greater support for republican candidates during the week immediately after the outbreak than the week immediately before the outbreak p=.005. These correlation differences between pre-outbreak and post-outbreak and voter intentions are statistically significant as all p values were less than .05, which also demonstrates statistical validity.
Scatterplots
The scatterplot for September is negative, meaning as the days increase (or the later in the
month it is) voter intention to vote Republican decreases. The data points are very close to the regression line, which means there is a strong effect size. A regression line minimizes error in a prediction, that is with the regression line researchers are least likely to be wrong about the prediction. The scatterplot for October is positive, meaning as the days increase (or the later in the month it is) voter intention to vote Republican increases. The data points are very close to the
regression line in October as well, which means there is a strong effect size.
Results for Voter Intention Change Index
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Zili
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18
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- In 2017, Philadelphia launched a sweetened beverage tax of 1.5 cents per ounce, raising the cost of a 2-liter soda bottle from about $1.50 to $2.50. One year later, the Philadelphia mayor wants to evaluate if this "sugar tax" improves the health status of Philadelphia Propose ONE method (i.e. difference-in-difference, instrumental variables, or regression discontinuity) to address these questions. write down its implementation details (the type of data you need, potential sources to get the data, equations) its pros and cons Only Typing answer please I need ASAParrow_forwardSherwin-Williams Company is attempting to develop a demand model for its line of exterior house paints. The company’s chief economist feels that the most important variable affecting paint sales (Q) (measured in gallons) is the Selling price (P) (measured in Ghana cedis per gallon). The chief economist decides to collect data on the variables in a sample of 10 company sales regions that are roughly equal in population. Data on paint sales, and selling prices were obtained from the company’s marketing department. The data are shown in the table below: Sherwin-Williams Company Data Sales Region Sales (Q) Selling Price (P) (GHS/Gallon) 1 160 15 2 220 13.5 3 140 16.5 4 190 14.5 5 130 17 6 160 16 7 200 13 8 150 18 9 210 12 10 190 15.5 Specify the linear demand model for Sherwin-William’s paint. Estimate the demand…arrow_forwardMr. John operates a medium size business that sells tires. He buys most of his tires from a company that is located in South America. Mr. John believes that he is stocking too much tires so he decided to look into the situation. He wants to use the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) model to manage his stock of tires. In order to use this model, he must first of all forecast the annual demand for his tires. Using a numerical example, demonstrate to Mr. John how he can use the manual trend projection method of forecasting to forecast demand for the next two years.arrow_forward
- Comment on why there exists a trade-off between variance and bias of of OLS estimators when considering the choice of including a particular explanatory variable in your underlying model. Please keep your answer precise.arrow_forwardConsider the following single variate model (1) fare Bo + B₁dist + u =arrow_forwardYou are trying to determine whether or not variables x2 and x3 jointly affect y. You set up a null and alternative hypothesis appropriate to this question. Before forming your test statistic, what are the two models you need to estimate? None of these is the correct pair of models to estimate. y = Bo + B1x1 + B2x2 + B3x3 + B4x4 + u and y = Bo + v y = Bo + B1x1 + B2x2 + B4x4 + w and y = Bo + B1x1 + B3X3 + B4X4 + e y = Bo + B1x1 + B2x2 + B3x3 + B4x4 + u and y = Bo + B1x1 + B4x4 + varrow_forward
- Please fill out the blank a-darrow_forwardRecently the European Community (EC) decided to lower its subsidies to makers of pasta. In deciding by what amount to reduce total subsidies, experiments were carried out for determining the possible reduction in exports, mainly to the United States, that would result from the subsidy reduction. Over a small range of values, economists wanted to test whether there is a positive correlation between level of subsidy and level of exports. A computer simulation of the economic variables involved in the pasta exports market was carried out. The results follow. Assuming that the simulation is an accurate description of reality and that the values obtained may be viewed as a random sample of the populations of possible outcomes, state whether you believe that a positive rank correlation exists between subsidy level and exports level over the short range of values studied Qarrow_forwardStates (and provinces) that have control over taxation sometimes reduce taxes in an attempt to spur economic growth. Suppose that you are hired by a state to estimate the effect of corporate tax rates on, say, the growth in per capita gross state product (GSP).(i) What kind of data would you need to collect to undertake a statistical analysis?(ii) Is it feasible to do a controlled experiment? What would be required?(iii) Is a correlation analysis between GSP growth and tax rates likely to be convincing? Explain.arrow_forward
- The Pilot Pen Company has decided to use 15 test markets to examine the sensitivity of demand for its new product to various prices, as shown in the following table. Advertising effort was identical in each market. Each market had approximately the same level of business activity and population. Complete the following worksheet and then estimate the demand function for Pilot's new pen using a linear regression model. Test Market Price Charged (cents) Quantity Sold (Thousands of Pens) i Zi Yi Zili 點 2 1 50 20 1,000 2,500 400 2 50 21 1,050 2,500 441 3 55 19 1,045 3,025 361 4 55 19.5 1,072.5 3,025 380.25 5 60 19.5 1,170 3,600 380.25 6 60 19 1,140 3,600 361 7 65 16.5 1,072.5 4,225 272.25 8 65 15 975 4,225 225 9 70 14 980 4,900 196 10 70 15.5 1,085 4,900 240.25 11 80 13 1,040 6,400 169 12 80 14 1,120 6,400 196 13 90 11.5 1,035 8,100 132.25 14 90 11 990 8,100 121 15 40 17 680 1,600 289 Total 980 245.5 67,100 Regression Parameters Estimations Slope (B) Intercept (a) What is the standard error…arrow_forwardBusiness and consumer marketers use the same set of variables to segment their markets Select one: True Falsearrow_forwardE3arrow_forward
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