article critque #5

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Texas State University *

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MISC

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Economics

Date

Feb 20, 2024

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docx

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4

Uploaded by jennijohnson8726

INFECTIOUS OUTBREAK ON VOTER INTENTIONS JENNI JOHNSON Summary The specific hypothesis researchers tested in this study was that increased internet searchers for “Ebola” would predict high intentions to vote Republican compared to Democratic. Two variables were measured to test this hypothesis, the first one being the Ebola search volume index and voter-intention index from nonpartisan polling organizations. Ebola searches are the predictor variable while voter intentions are the criterion variable. A criterion variable is the dependent variable, the researchers trying to determine if voter intention is dependent on Ebola internet searchers. A predictor variable is what is used to determine a relationship, that is Ebola searchers predict voter intentions. Results The bivariate correlation coefficient is .51 this is a positive correlation, any correlation coefficient above .50 is considered strong with a perfect correlation being 1, therefore this correlation is also strong. The p-value for the correlation between voter intention and Ebola searches was .012 which is less than .05 making the correlation statistically significant. A positive correlation between these two variables is when Ebola internet searches increase, voter intentions to vote Republican also increase. Their hypothesis was supported as they had also predicted that increased internet searchers for “Ebola” would predict high intentions to vote Republican. The effect size is .26, the effect size or the coefficient of determination explains the proportion of variance that the two variables have in common. In this case, that means 26% of the variance observed in internet searches of Ebola is shared with the voter's intentions to vote for Republican candidates. The article concludes that an association between Ebola and increased support for voting for a republican candidate. However, this was true in states that favored republican opinions. States that favored democratic states found the same but the opposite, that is Ebola had an association with increased support for democratic candidates.
INFECTIOUS OUTBREAK ON VOTER INTENTIONS JENNI JOHNSON Critique and Discussion This was a correlational study, compared to an experimental study, because neither of the two variables were manipulated, but rather measured. It would be unethical to manipulate either of these variables. A t-test was the appropriate test to analyze this data because t-tests are used to compare the means of two groups. Two t-tests were used to determine the difference in voter intention and Ebola searches from the whole month and the week immediately following/ proceeding with the outbreak. This analysis tested an association effect rather than a causal effect because regression analysis was used for correlation or association effects to predict a relationship. Results showed that compared to Democratic there was more support for republican candidates following the Ebola outbreak than preceding the outbreak p=.001. Even more so, there was even greater support for republican candidates during the week immediately after the outbreak than the week immediately before the outbreak p=.005. These correlation differences between pre-outbreak and post-outbreak and voter intentions are statistically significant as all p values were less than .05, which also demonstrates statistical validity. Scatterplots          The scatterplot for September is negative, meaning as the days increase (or the later in the month it is) voter intention to vote Republican decreases. The data points are very close to the regression line, which means there is a strong effect size. A regression line minimizes error in a prediction, that is with the regression line researchers are least likely to be wrong about the prediction. The scatterplot for October is positive, meaning as the days increase (or the later in the month it is) voter intention to vote Republican increases. The data points are very close to the regression line in October as well, which means there is a strong effect size. Results for Voter Intention Change Index
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