24a Wed Apr 8 - Incremental Economics
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Texas A&M University *
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Subject
Economics
Date
Nov 24, 2024
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14
Uploaded by SargentTeamDugong21
1
Petroleum Engineering 416
Incremental Economics
Texas A&M University
1
Incremental Economics
•
Spend capital to “improve”
a well’s performance
•
Run Cash Flow Economics on the Base Case and the Improved Case Separately
–
Cannot simply subtract the Improved Production Case from the Base Case and run economics on the Incremental Production
–
Each case will reach it’s own economic limit at different times
2
10
100
1,000
10,000
0
48
96
144
192
240
288
336
384
432
480
Time, months
Monthly Gas Volume, Mcf
Base Case
Stimulated Case
Incremental
Red Line is the Base Case
Green Line is the Stimulated Case
Blue Line is the Incremental Increase in Production due to Stimulation
(Green Line minus Red Line)
Do Not Run Incremental Economics by Simply Running Economics on the Incremental Production
3
10
100
1,000
10,000
0
48
96
144
192
240
288
336
384
432
480
Time, months
Monthly Gas Volume, Mcf
Base Case
Stimulated Case
Incremental
Red Line is the Base Case
Green Line is the Stimulated Case
Blue Line is the Incremental Increase in Production due to Stimulation
(Green Line minus Red Line)
This is an economic summary on the incremental production only (Blue Line).
Have to make assumptions about what’s different between the Base Case and the Stim Case, particularly in Operating Expenses. Usually, the fixed opex will be the same, so doing this, we probably should set opex = 0.
Then it becomes difficult to determine a realistic Economic Limit.
Do Not Run Incremental Economics by Simply Running Economics on the Incremental Production
Wellhead Reserves, MMcf
285.0
Net Reserves, MMcf
216.6
PV0
$847,634
PV10
$401,677
Investment
$250,000
ROR
21.6%
PVI10%
0.78
Payout, years
4.25
Economic Limit, Mcf/day
1
Well Life, years
40
4
10
100
1,000
10,000
0
48
96
144
192
240
288
336
384
432
480
Time, months
Monthly Gas Volume, Mcf
Base Case
Stimulated Case
Incremental
A Better Way to Run Incremental Economics is to Run Each Case Separately, then subtract the Cash Flows
Notice that the Base Case (Red Line) becomes uneconomic around month 40, then it goes away and the entire production stream from this point forward is attributed to the stimulation case.
The Stimulated Case becomes uneconomic around 10 years.
Base
Stimulated
Incremental
Wellhead Reserves, MMcf
100.4
405.9
305.6
Net Reserves, MMcf
76.3
308.5
232.2
PV0
$17,176
$148,802
$131,625
PV10
$18,072
$49,179
$31,107
Investment
$250,000
$250,000
ROR
17.1%
14.2%
PVI10%
0.20
0.12
Payout, years
3.67
4.00
Economic Limit, Mcf/day
72
68
Well Life, years
3.3
9.8
5
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1600
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P Soruyu işaretle
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(c). The least cost.combination of two products
(d) The marginal physical product
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Suppose a firm has only three possible plant-size options represented by the ATC curves shown in the
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ATC₁
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240
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