24a Wed Apr 8 - Incremental Economics

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Nov 24, 2024

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1 Petroleum Engineering 416 Incremental Economics Texas A&M University 1
Incremental Economics Spend capital to “improve” a well’s performance Run Cash Flow Economics on the Base Case and the Improved Case Separately Cannot simply subtract the Improved Production Case from the Base Case and run economics on the Incremental Production Each case will reach it’s own economic limit at different times 2
10 100 1,000 10,000 0 48 96 144 192 240 288 336 384 432 480 Time, months Monthly Gas Volume, Mcf Base Case Stimulated Case Incremental Red Line is the Base Case Green Line is the Stimulated Case Blue Line is the Incremental Increase in Production due to Stimulation (Green Line minus Red Line) Do Not Run Incremental Economics by Simply Running Economics on the Incremental Production 3
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10 100 1,000 10,000 0 48 96 144 192 240 288 336 384 432 480 Time, months Monthly Gas Volume, Mcf Base Case Stimulated Case Incremental Red Line is the Base Case Green Line is the Stimulated Case Blue Line is the Incremental Increase in Production due to Stimulation (Green Line minus Red Line) This is an economic summary on the incremental production only (Blue Line). Have to make assumptions about what’s different between the Base Case and the Stim Case, particularly in Operating Expenses. Usually, the fixed opex will be the same, so doing this, we probably should set opex = 0. Then it becomes difficult to determine a realistic Economic Limit. Do Not Run Incremental Economics by Simply Running Economics on the Incremental Production Wellhead Reserves, MMcf 285.0 Net Reserves, MMcf 216.6 PV0 $847,634 PV10 $401,677 Investment $250,000 ROR 21.6% PVI10% 0.78 Payout, years 4.25 Economic Limit, Mcf/day 1 Well Life, years 40 4
10 100 1,000 10,000 0 48 96 144 192 240 288 336 384 432 480 Time, months Monthly Gas Volume, Mcf Base Case Stimulated Case Incremental A Better Way to Run Incremental Economics is to Run Each Case Separately, then subtract the Cash Flows Notice that the Base Case (Red Line) becomes uneconomic around month 40, then it goes away and the entire production stream from this point forward is attributed to the stimulation case. The Stimulated Case becomes uneconomic around 10 years. Base Stimulated Incremental Wellhead Reserves, MMcf 100.4 405.9 305.6 Net Reserves, MMcf 76.3 308.5 232.2 PV0 $17,176 $148,802 $131,625 PV10 $18,072 $49,179 $31,107 Investment $250,000 $250,000 ROR 17.1% 14.2% PVI10% 0.20 0.12 Payout, years 3.67 4.00 Economic Limit, Mcf/day 72 68 Well Life, years 3.3 9.8 5
10 100 1,000 10,000 0 48 96 144 192 240 288 336 384 432 480 Time, months Monthly Gas Volume, Mcf Base Case Stimulated Case Incremental Below is a comparison between the “proper” way to run incremental economics and running economics on just the incremental production. Base Stimulated Incremental Wellhead Reserves, MMcf 100.4 405.9 305.6 Net Reserves, MMcf 76.3 308.5 232.2 PV0 $17,176 $148,802 $131,625 PV10 $18,072 $49,179 $31,107 Investment $250,000 $250,000 ROR 17.1% 14.2% PVI10% 0.20 0.12 Payout, years 3.67 4.00 Economic Limit, Mcf/day 72 68 Well Life, years 3.3 9.8 285.0 216.6 $847,634 $401,677 $250,000 21.6% 0.78 4.25 1 40 6
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Incremental Economics Spend capital to “improve” a well’s performance Run Cash Flow Economics on the Base Case and the Improved Case Separately Cannot simply subtract the Improved Production Case from the Base Case and run economics on the Incremental Production Each case will reach it’s own economic limit at different times Once you have individual economic runs for the Base and Stimulated cases, take the difference in their Monthly Cash Flows to calculate the Economic Metrics (Investment Yardsticks) – ROR – PVI – Payout 7
Base Case doesn’t have any Capital, therefore Investment Metrics are not calculated 8
Stimulated Case DOES have an Investment and therefore Investment Metrics Can be calculated, but this is for Full Well Economics, not the Incremental production above the “Do Nothing” Case. So, this has little meaning unless the well is not producing at all prior to stimulating. 9
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Incremental Economics are calculated separately. Below is a summary table of the Base Case, the Stimulated Case, and Incremental (difference between the Stimulated and Base Cases). These numbers are calculated by subtracting Base from Stimulated Incremental PV10 = 31,107 / 250,000 = 0.124 Incremental PVI is calculated using the Incremental PV10/Investment ROR See next slide 10
Start by calculating the Incremental Monthly Cash Flow (Stimulated – Base Case) Then add each month to get an Incremental Cumulative Cash Flow 11
ROR is calculated on the Incremental Cash Flow, just like you did on the individual economic sheets 12
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Payout of the Investment, on an Incremental Basis, is found when the Cumulative Cash Flow becomes positive. It is found just like you did on the individual economic sheets. My Formula for Cell J13 Notice: it’s an array formula While in edit mode, press CTRL SHIFT ENTER 13
Payout of the Investment, on an Incremental Basis, is found when the Cumulative Cash Flow becomes positive. It is found just like you did on the individual economic sheets. My Formula for Cell J14 14