You and I play the following game. Hidden from you, I put a coin in my hand: with probability p it is a 10 pence coin and otherwise it is a 20 pence coin. You now guess which coin is in my hand: you guess it is 20 pence with probability s and otherwise you guess it is a 10 pence coin. You get to win the coin if you guess correctly and otherwise win nothing. What (in terms of p and 8) is your expected gain in pence from playing this game once with me? Challenge: suppose we are going to play repeatedly and you want to maximise your gain and I wish to minimise my loss. What value of p should I choose and what value of s should you choose? (This question is somewhat ill-defined, but it does have an interesting possible answer.) (Note: anything labelled "challenge" will not be part of the hand-in.)
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- Professor can give a TA scholarship for a maximum of 2 years. At the beginning of each year professor Hahn decides whether he will give a scholarship to Gong Yi or not. Gong Yi can get a scholarship in t=2, only if he gets it in t=1. Basically, the professor and TA will play the following game twice. TA can be a Hardworking type with probably 0.3 and can be a Lazy type with a probability of 0.7. Professor does not know TA's type. If TA is hard working, it will be X=5 and TA will always work if he gets a scholarship. If TA is lazy, it will be X= 1. There is no time discount for t=2. Find out a Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium of the game.Phil, Stu, and Doug are deciding which fraternity to pledge. They all assign a payoff of 5 to pledging Phi Gamma and a payoff of 4 to Delta Chi. The payoff from not pledging either house is 1. Phi Gamma and Delta Chi each have two slots. If all three of them happen to choose the same house, then the house will randomly choose which two are admitted. In that case, each has probability 2/3 of getting in and probability 1/3 of not pledging any house. If they do not all choose the same house, then all are admitted to the house they chose. Find a symmetric Nash equilibrium in mixed strategies.The deciding shot in a soccer game comes down to a penalty shot. If the goal-keeper jumps in one corner and the player shots the ball in the other, then it is a goal. If the goalie jumps left and the player shoots left, then it is a goal with probability 1/3. If the goalie jumps right and the player shots right, it is goal with probability 2/3. If both players play Nash strategies, what is the expected value of goals that will follow from this penalty shot. 1/9 2/9 3/9 4/9 5/9 6/9 O7/9
- . Ayça and Barış are playing a game and following payoff matrix is for the payoffs of Ayça. Answer the questions according to the following payoff matrix. a) What is the probability that the value of the game is 10?For the following questions consider this setting. The deciding shot in a soccer game comes down to a penalty shot. If the goal-keeper jumps in one corner and the striker shots the ball in the other, then it is a goal. If the goalie jumps left and the striker shoots left, then it is a goal with probability 1/3. If the goalie jumps right and the striker shots right, it is goal with probability 2/3. QUESTION Say the goalie's strategy is to jump left with probability 1 and the striker shoots left with probability 0.5, then the probability of a goal is (round to two digits) QUESTION If the striker shoots in either corner with probability 0.5 and the goalie likewise shoots in either corner with probability 0.5, then the probability of a goal is (round to 2 digits)$11. Anne and Bruce would like to rent a movie, but they can't decide what kind of movie to get: Anne wants to rent a comedy, and Bruce wants to watch a drama. They decide to choose randomly by playing "Evens or Odds." On the count of three, each of them shows one or two fingers. If the sum is even, Anne wins and they rent the comedy; if the sum is odd, Bruce wins and they rent the drama. Each of them earns a payoff of 1 for winning and 0 for losing "Evens or Odds." (a) Draw the game table for "Evens or Odds." (b) Demonstrate that this game has no Nash equilibrium in pure strategies.
- Rita is playing a game of chance in which she tosses a dart into a rotating dartboard with 8 equal-sized slices numbered 1 through 8. The dart lands on a numbered slice at random. This game is this: Rita tosses the dart once. She wins $1 if the dart lands in slice 1, $2 if the dart lands in slice 2, $5 if the dart lands in slice 3, and $8 if the dart lands in slice 4. She loses $3 if the dart lands in slices 5, 6, 7, or 8. (If necessary, consult a list of formulas.) (a) Find the expected value of playing the game. | dollars (b) What can Rita expect in the long run, after playing the game many times? O Rita can expect to gain money. She can expect to win dollars per toss. Rita can expect to lose money. She can expect to lose dollars per toss. O Rita can expect to break even (neither gain nor lose money).Player 1 and Player 2 will play one round of the Rock-Paper-Scissors game. The winner receives a payoff +1, the loser receives a payoff -1. If it is a tie, then each player receives a payoff zero. Suppose Player 2 is using a non-optimal strategy: he/she plays Rock with probability 35%; Paper with probability 45%; and Scissors with probability 20%. Given that Player 1 knows Player 2 is using this strategy, the best response of Player 1 is to play O a mixed strategy with probability 1/3 each (Rock, Paper and Scissors) O Scissors with probability 100% O any strategy (any strategy is a best response for Player 1) O Rock with probability 100% O Paper with probability 100%Bill owes Bob $36. Just before Bill pays him the money, he gives Bob the opportunity to play a dice game to potentially win more money. The rules of this game are as follows: If Bob rolls doubles (probability 1/6), Bill will Bob double ($72). If he misses doubles on pay the first try, he can try again or settle for half the money ($18). If he makes doubles on the second try Bill will again pay-up double ($72), but if Bob misses doubles on the second try Bill will only pay him one-third ($12). Should Bob decide to play the dice game with Bill, or insist that he pay the $36 now? Use a decision tree to support your answer.
- To go from Location 1 to Location 2, you can either take a car or take transit. Your utility function is: U= -1Xminutes -5Xdollars +0.13Xcar (i.e. 0.13 is the car constant) Car= 15 minutes and $8 Transit= 40 minutes and $4 What is your probability of taking transit given the conditions above? What is your probability of taking transit if the number of buses on the route were doubled, meaning the headways are halved? Remember to include units.With what probability does player 1 play Down in the mixed strategy Nash equilibrium? (Input your answer as a decimal to the nearest hundredth, for example: 0.14, 0.56, or 0.87). PLAYER 1 Up Down PLAYER 2 Left 97,95 47, 33 Right 8,43 68,912. Kier, in The scenario, wants to determine how each of the 3 companies will decide on possible new investments. He was able to determine the new investment pay off for each of the three choices as well as the probability of the two types of market. If a company will launch product 1, it will gain 50,000 if the market is successful and lose 50,000 if the market is a failure. If a company will launch product 2, it will gain 25,000 if the market is successful and lose 25,000 if the market will fail. If a company decides not to launch any of the product, it will not be affected whether the market will succeed or fail. There is a 56% probability that the market will succeed and 44% probability that the market will fail. What will be the companies decision based on EMV? What is the decision of each company based on expected utility value?