Suppose that you have two four-sided dice that are each equally weighted (i.e. equal chance of any of the four sides landing face up). One of them has values [12.5968, 2, -2 and -12.5968] , the other [12.5968, 4, -2 and -12.5968] . Which of them has a µ of zero using the probability model approach. 1. [12.5968, 4, -2 and -12.5968] 2. [12.5968, 2, -2 and -12.5968]

Suppose that you have two four-sided dice that are each equally weighted (i.e. equal chance of any of the four sides landing face up). One of them has values [12.5968, 2, -2 and -12.5968] , the other [12.5968, 4, -2 and -12.5968] . Which of them has a µ of zero using the probability model approach. 1. [12.5968, 4, -2 and -12.5968] 2. [12.5968, 2, -2 and -12.5968]

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter11: Simulation Models

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 44P: You now have 5000. You will toss a fair coin four times. Before each toss you can bet any amount of...

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In this version of dice blackjack, you toss a single die repeatedly and add up the sum of your dice tosses. Your goal is to come as close as possible to a total of 7 without going over. You may stop at any time. If your total is 8 or more, you lose. If your total is 7 or less, the house then tosses the die repeatedly. The house stops as soon as its total is 4 or more. If the house totals 8 or more, you win. Otherwise, the higher total wins. If there is a tie, the house wins. Consider the following strategies: Keep tossing until your total is 3 or more. Keep tossing until your total is 4 or more. Keep tossing until your total is 5 or more. Keep tossing until your total is 6 or more. Keep tossing until your total is 7 or more. For example, suppose you keep tossing until your total is 4 or more. Here are some examples of how the game might go: You toss a 2 and then a 3 and stop for total of 5. The house tosses a 3 and then a 2. You lose because a tie goes to the house. You toss a 3 and then a 6. You lose. You toss a 6 and stop. The house tosses a 3 and then a 2. You win. You toss a 3 and then a 4 for total of 7. The house tosses a 3 and then a 5. You win. Note that only 4 tosses need to be generated for the house, but more tosses might need to be generated for you, depending on your strategy. Develop a simulation and run it for at least 1000 iterations for each of the strategies listed previously. For each strategy, what are the two values so that you are 95% sure that your probability of winning is between these two values? Which of the five strategies appears to be best?
The game of Chuck-a-Luck is played as follows: You pick a number between 1 and 6 and toss three dice. If your number does not appear, you lose 1. If your number appears x times, you win x. On the average, use simulation to find the average amount of money you will win or lose on each play of the game.
You now have 5000. You will toss a fair coin four times. Before each toss you can bet any amount of your money (including none) on the outcome of the toss. If heads comes up, you win the amount you bet. If tails comes up, you lose the amount you bet. Your goal is to reach 15,000. It turns out that you can maximize your chance of reaching 15,000 by betting either the money you have on hand or 15,000 minus the money you have on hand, whichever is smaller. Use simulation to estimate the probability that you will reach your goal with this betting strategy.
Suppose that you have two four-sided dice that are each equally weighted (i.e. equal chance of any of the four sides landing face up). One of them has values [12.5968, 2, -2 and -12.5968] , the other [12.5968, 4, -2 and -12.5968] Which of them has a σ of 9 using the probability model approach. a) [12.5968, 2, -2 and -12.5968] B) [12.5968, 4, -2 and -12.5968]
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A product is composed of four parts. In order for the product to function properly in a given situation, each of the parts must function. Two of the parts have a .96 probability of functioning, and twohave a probability of .99. What is the overall probability that the product will function properly?
Which of the following is a likely source of basis risk? All of these None of these Crude oil is being used to hedge the price risk of downstream (refined) petroleum product O The termination date of exposure is two weeks later than the contract expiration date. A power plant in the Northeast is managing its input (natural gas) risk using a contract priced at Henry Hub, Louisiana.
Suppose you sample one value from a uniform distribution with a = 0 and b=20. a. What is the probability that the value will be between 12 and 172 b. What is the probability that the value will be between 4 and 72 c. What is the mean? d. What is the standard deviation? a. The probability that the value will be between 12 and 17 is (Type an integer or a decimal)
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A polling firm is taking a survey regarding a proposed new law. Of the voters polled, 30% are in favor of the law. If 10 people are surveyed, what is the probability that 4 will indicate that they are opposed to the passage of the new law?
Maximize z=4x+5y Subject to: x+y<or=4 x-y>or=-2 x<or=3 x>or=0, y>or=0
Using @risk draw a normal distribution with a mean of 500 and a sd of 100. What is the probability the random number is less than 450