You are trying to forecast the future production cost in your department. You observed that in the last seven months your costs were as follows: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Cost $1000 900 846 810 783 762 744 Moreover, you discovered that your department has a learning curve of 90% with regard to cutting cost, and improving productivity. (a) Forecast the cost in the 8th month. (b) The planning department has announced that the forecasted cumulative cost of the next planning horizon starting from month 8 will be $4207. What is the length of the next planning horizon? (c) If the forecasting error variance of the last 7 months is 17.5, can you estimate the MAD of the last 7 months? If so, what is its value?
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- We have a new chief sales officer who is proposing that we should forecast in dollars, not in units/cases. I have never heard of anyone forecasting in dollars. It is true that dollarized forecasts can help sales in knowing precisely what sales target they should be hitting. But, is it the best practice?For this final assignment I’d like you to call upon your knowledge of forecasting to help project your firm’s revenue stream for the upcoming year. In the Microsoft Excel that is attached to this assignment, you will find the past four years of quarterly revenue data for your nonprofit. Your revenue comes from two major sources: individual donations and donations from corporations. I’d like you to use the past four years’ worth of data to forecast the individual donations and donations for corporations for the next fiscal year (year 5 quarters 1-4). Once you have forecasted both individual revenue streams you can simply add them together to get your overall revenue forecast for the next fiscal year. Please discuss what forecasting method you chose and how you made your decision. You can do this in your excel document or write up a separate paragraph or two in a Microsoft Word document.Check if all right. Which one is wrong about time horizons. Medium/long range forecasts deal with more comprehensive issues and support management decisions regarding planning and products, plants and processes. Short-term forecasting usually employs different methodologies than longer-term forecasting. Short-term forecasts tend to be more accurate than longer-term forecasts Economic forecasts: Address business cycle - inflation rate, money supply, housing starts, etc What is the objective of process design? The objective is to create umbrella term for manufacturing processes that use irregular production schedules to create several different products using one production line. The objective is to create high degree of product flexibility The objective is to create facilities are organized around specific activities or processes The objective is to create a process to produce offerings that meet customer requirements within cost and other managerial constraints What is benefit of…
- The following two demand sets are to be used to test two different basic exponential smoothingmodels. The first model uses 0.1, and the second uses 0.5. In both cases, the modelshould be initialized with a beginning forecast value of 50; that is, the ESF forecast for period 1made at the end of period 0 is 50 units. In each of the four cases (two models on two demandsets), compute the average forecast error and MAD. What do the results mean?Demand Set I Demand Set IIPeriod Demand Period Demand1 51 1772 46 2833 49 3904 55 4225 52 5106 47 6807 51 7168 48 8199 56 92710 51 10 7911 45 11 7312 52 12 8813 49 13 1514 48 14 2115 43 15 8516 46 16 2217 55 17 8818 53 18 7519 54 19 1420 49 20 16An electrical contractor's records during the last five weeks indicate the number of job requests: Week: 3 4 Requests: 27 25 21 24 29 Click here for the Excel Data File Predict the number of requests for week 6 using each of these methods: a. Naive. Number of requests b. A four-period moving average. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.) Number of requests c. Exponential smoothing with a = 0.20. Use 26 for week 2 forecast. (Round your intermediate forecast values and final answers to 2 decimal places.) Number of Requests F3 F4 F5 F6If a firm wants to forecast its gross margin by product for the next year, how does the firm do so? Select an answer: product revenue projection times projected gross margin for the product total revenue projection times projected gross margin for the average product product revenue projection divided by projected gross margin for the product total revenue projection divided by projected gross margin for the average product
- Exercise # 2 –Calculating MADt, Revised MADt,Error,and the Revised Error :Has the Forecast Improved ? How much has it improved in % terms ? Franklin Henry forecasts demand for an auditing and accounting services group, for an estate planning group ,and a business consulting group.His group forecasts for the preceding six-month(M) period, which were made six months prior to that time, are each based on a level, patternless projection.The following data table shows these forecasts(F) and the actual demand (AD) for each group : Estate Planning Auditing and Accounting Business Consulting (Client –days) (Client –days) (Client –days) M AD F M AD F M AD F 1 120 130 1 260 230 1 120 120 2 80 130…A local manufacturing firm which produces engineer to order and assemble to order high value products for the pharmaceutical industry has recently been requested by its owner to provide a proposal on the benefits of a predictive performance model and methodology from a workshop that you have recently completed. You are requested to produce the following report: 1. Review the current state of the practice of performance reporting within firms. 2. Suggest a suite of appropriate key performance measures. 3. Explain the benefits of an Ex-Ante or Predictive Performance approach to enterprise performance management. 4. Recommend a methodology on how this type of Enterprise Performance Model might be deployed within actual firms. It is recommended that you use appropriate examples from the literature or your prior industrial experience to support any recommendations that you provide.Let’s say you work for a company that makes prepared breakfast cereals like corn l akes. Your company is planning to introduce a new hot breakfast product made from whole grains that would require some minimal preparation by the consumer. This would be a completely newproduct for the company. How would you propose forecasting initial demand for this product?
- What should be our forecast accuracy target if there is a high degree of volatility in customer orders and long lead times? We have a new chief sales officer who is proposing that we should forecast in dollars, not in units/cases. I have never heard of anyone forecasting in dollars. It is true that dollarized forecasts can help Sales in knowing precisely what sales target they should be hitting. But, is it the best practice?In a manufacturing company, a product “A” is manufactured from components “B” and “C”. Also, the component “B” is manufactured from parts “D” and “E”. Which items should be forecasted?The following gives the number of pints of type B blood used at Woodlawn Hospital in the past 6 weeks: Week Of Pints Used August 31 360 September 7 389 September 14 410 September 21 381 September 28 368 October 5 374 a. Forecast the demand for the week of October 12 using a 4-week moving average. [Select] b. What is the MAD? [Select] c. Use a 4-week weighted moving average, with weights of .1, .3, .6, and .8 using .8 for the most recent week. Forecast demand for the week of October 12. [Select] d. What is the MAD? [Select] e. Compute the forecast for the week of October 12 using exponential smoothing with a forecast for August 31 of 363 and a = .47 [Select] f. What is the MAD? [Select] g. Based on evaluating all three forecasting models, which forecast should be chosen? [Select]