Which action should be taken according to a maximin criterion? only A O either A or B O only B O It cannot be determined.
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- What information does a decision maker need in order to perform an expected-value analysis ofa problem? What options are available to the decision maker if the probabilities of the states ofnature are unknown? Can you think of a way you might use sensitivity analysis in such a case?A small building contractor has recently experienced two successive years in which work opportunities exceeded the firm’s capacity. The contractor must now make a decision on capacity for next year. Estimated profits under each of the two possible states of nature are as shown in the tablebelow. Which alternative should be selected if the decision criterion is:a. Maximax?b. Maximin?c. Laplace?d. Minimax regret?NEXT YEAR’SDEMANDAlternative Low HighDo nothing $50* $60Expand 20 80Subcontract 40 70Very Favorable Average Market Unfavorable Alternatives Market Market Build new plant $250,000 $180.000 - S200,000 Subcontract $270.000 $185,000 - $220,000 Overtime S100.000 $50,000 - $12.000 Do Nothing SO SO $0 a) Using the decision making under uncertainty with the criterion of Maximax The appropriate decision will be The value of the return under this decision is $ b) Using the decision making under uncertainty with the criterion of Maximin The appropriate decision will be The value of the return under this decision is $ c) Using the decision making under uncertainty with the criterion of Equally Likely The appropriate decision will be The value of the return under this decision is $ (enter your answer as a whole number).
- c. From the following decision tree, develop a payoff table and calculate: * Maximax, Minimax regret, Maximin, and EMV. ORs. 50,000 Good conditions (0.60) Poor conditions (0.40) -O Rs. 30,000 Apartment Building Good conditions (0.60) O Rs. 100,000 Office building Poor conditions (0.40) Purchase ORs -40,000 Warchouse Good conditions (0.60) Rs.30, 000 Poor conditions (0.40) O Rs. 10,000Seneca Hill Winery recently purchased land for the purpose of establishing a new vineyard. Management is considering two varieties of white grapes for the new vineyard: Chardonnay and Riesling. The Chardonnay grapes would be used to produce a dry Chardonnay wine, and the Riesling grapes would be used to produce a semidry Riesling wine. It takes approximately four years from the time of planting before new grapes can be harvested. This length of time creates a great deal of uncertainty concerning future demand and makes the decision concerning the type of grapes to plant difficult. Three possibilities are being considered: Chardonnay grapes only; Riesling grapes only; and both Chardonnay and Riesling grapes. Seneca management decided that for planning purposes it would be adequate to consider only two demand possibilities for each type of wine: strong or weak. With two possibilities for each type of wine it was necessary to assess four probabilities. With the help of some forecasts in…3. The manager for a manufacturing company must recommend whether to construct a large plant, construct a small plant or do nothing. He estimates the long-run profits in $ as follows: State of Nature Alternative Good Average Poor Market($) Market ($) Market ($) Construct a 100,000 35,000 -60,000 large plant Construct a 75,000 25,000 -40,000 small plant Do nothing -5,000 0 0 Probability 25% 50% 25% Solve using: A. Expected Opportunity Loss B. Expected Value of Perfect Information
- What will be Hale’s TV Production’s decision based on the following criteria:a. MAXIMAXb. MAXIMINc. MINIMAX REGRETd. EXPECTED VALUEe. Construct the decision tree for this problem and indicate the decision based on the decision tree analysis.can you pls answer letter a,b,cThe Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): Decision State of Nature Alternative Low Demand (S1) Medium Demand (S2) High Demand )S3) Manufacture, d(1) -20 40 100 Purchase, d(2) 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P s1= 0.35, P s2= 0.35, and P s3= 0.30 Use expected value to recommend a decision.Consider the decision tree involving COSTS below. 300 0.6 0.4 500 1 500 0.7 0.3 200 Which of the following is true? O Action A should be chosen according to an expected value criterion. Action B should be chosen according to an expected value criterion. O Action A is a Nash equilibrium. O Action B is a Berge equilbrium.
- Question 2 An oil company must decide whether or not to drill an oil well in a particular area that they already own. The decision maker (DM) believes that the area could be dry, reasonably good or a bonanza. See data in the table which shows the gross revenues for the oil well that is found. Decision Drill $0 Abandon $0 Probability 0.3 Dry (D) Seismic Results No structure(N) Open(0) Closed (C) Reasonably good(G) $85 $0 0.3 Drilling costs 40M. The company can take a series of seismic soundings at a cost of 12M) to determine the underlying geological structure. The results will be either "no structure", "open structure or "closed structure". The reliability of the testing company is as follows that is, this reflects their historical performance. Bonanza(B) Note that if the test result is "no structure" the company can sell the land to a developer for 50 m. otherwise (for the other results) it can abandon the drilling idea at no benefit to itself. $200 m $0 0.4 Dry(d) 0.7 0.2 0.1…The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent on the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): State of Nature Low Demand Medium Demand High Demand Decision Alternative s 1 s 2 s 3 Manufacture, d 1 -20 40 100 Purchase, d 2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.25, P(s2) = 0.25, and P(s3) = 0.50 (a) Use a decision tree to recommend a decision. (b) Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand. Enter your answer in thousands dollars. For example, an answer of $200 thousands should be entered as 200,000. Gorman attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand, as the additional information could be worth up to $ for Gorman. (c) A test market study of the potential…A. A company wants to produce a souvenir with a marketing life of six months. Uncertainty surrounds the likely sales volume as well as the fixed costs of the venture as shown below: Sales units Probability Contrn. /unit Probability Fixed cost K7 K5 100 000 0.3 80 000 0.6 60 000 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 Determine the expected value of the contribution K400 000 K450 000 K500 000 Probability 0.2 0.5 0.3 1.0