Suppose that 80% of 3–4-year-old children and 70% of 5–8-year-old children in a village are vaccinated with QIV vaccine. Also assume that children who are not vaccinated have twice the incidence of influenza as the control group in Table 3.7. 3.29 What % of 3–4-year-old children in the village will get influenza? 3.30 What % of 5–8-year-old children in the village will get influenza? 3.31 Suppose we identify a 5–8-year-old child with influenza in the village but are uncertain whether the child was vaccinated. If we make the same assumptions as in Problems 3.29–3.30, then what is the probability that the child was vaccinated? (Hint: Use Bayes’ rule here.)
Addition Rule of Probability
It simply refers to the likelihood of an event taking place whenever the occurrence of an event is uncertain. The probability of a single event can be calculated by dividing the number of successful trials of that event by the total number of trials.
Expected Value
When a large number of trials are performed for any random variable ‘X’, the predicted result is most likely the mean of all the outcomes for the random variable and it is known as expected value also known as expectation. The expected value, also known as the expectation, is denoted by: E(X).
Probability Distributions
Understanding probability is necessary to know the probability distributions. In statistics, probability is how the uncertainty of an event is measured. This event can be anything. The most common examples include tossing a coin, rolling a die, or choosing a card. Each of these events has multiple possibilities. Every such possibility is measured with the help of probability. To be more precise, the probability is used for calculating the occurrence of events that may or may not happen. Probability does not give sure results. Unless the probability of any event is 1, the different outcomes may or may not happen in real life, regardless of how less or how more their probability is.
Basic Probability
The simple definition of probability it is a chance of the occurrence of an event. It is defined in numerical form and the probability value is between 0 to 1. The probability value 0 indicates that there is no chance of that event occurring and the probability value 1 indicates that the event will occur. Sum of the probability value must be 1. The probability value is never a negative number. If it happens, then recheck the calculation.
Suppose that 80% of 3–4-year-old children and 70% of
5–8-year-old children in a village are vaccinated with QIV
vaccine. Also assume that children who are not vaccinated
have twice the incidence of influenza as the control group
in Table 3.7.
3.29 What % of 3–4-year-old children in the village will get
influenza?
3.30 What % of 5–8-year-old children in the village will get
influenza?
3.31 Suppose we identify a 5–8-year-old child with influenza
in the village but are uncertain whether the child
was vaccinated. If we make the same assumptions as in
Problems 3.29–3.30, then what is the probability that the
child was vaccinated? (Hint: Use Bayes’ rule here.)
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