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Rezoning Approved Rezoning Not Approved Decision Alternative S1 S2 Purchase, d1 600 -200 Do not purchase, d2 0 0     If the probability that the rezoning will be approved is 0.5, what decision is recommended? Recommended decision = Purchase  What is the expected profit? Expected profit = $  (fill in the blank) thousands.

Rezoning Approved Rezoning Not Approved Decision Alternative S1 S2 Purchase, d1 600 -200 Do not purchase, d2 0 0     If the probability that the rezoning will be approved is 0.5, what decision is recommended? Recommended decision = Purchase  What is the expected profit? Expected profit = $  (fill in the blank) thousands.

ENGR.ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
ENGR.ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
14th Edition
ISBN:9780190931919
Author:NEWNAN
Publisher:NEWNAN
Chapter1: Making Economics Decisions
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1QTC
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Problem 13-21

Please answer the questions that are in Bold: #1. Expected profit and #3, the EVSI 

A real estate investor has the opportunity to purchase land currently zoned residential. If the county board approves a request to rezone the property as commercial within the next year, the investor will be able to lease the land to a large discount firm that wants to open a new store on the property. However, if the zoning change is not approved, the investor will have to sell the property at a loss. Profits (in thousands of dollars) are shown in the following payoff table:

 

  State of Nature
Rezoning Approved Rezoning Not Approved
Decision Alternative S1 S2
Purchase, d1 600 -200
Do not purchase, d2 0 0

 

 

  1. If the probability that the rezoning will be approved is 0.5, what decision is recommended?

    Recommended decision = Purchase 

    What is the expected profit?

    Expected profit = $  (fill in the blank) thousands.

  2. The investor can purchase an option to buy the land. Under the option, the investor maintains the right to purchase the land anytime during the next three months while learning more about possible resistance to the rezoning proposal from area residents. Probabilities are as follows:

    Let H = High resistance to rezoning
    L = Low resistance to rezoning
     
    P(H) = 0.55 P(S1 | H) = 0.18 P(S2 | H) = 0.82
     
    P(L) = 0.45 P(S1 | L) = 0.89 P(S2 | L) = 0.11

    What is the optimal decision strategy if the investor uses the option period to learn more about the resistance from area residents before making the purchase decision?

    High resistance: Do not purchase 

    Low resistance: Purchase 

  3. If the option will cost the investor an additional $10,000, should the investor purchase the option?

    Yes, because the expected value of the option is more than the cost of the option. 

    What is the maximum that the investor should be willing to pay for the option?

    EVSI = $ (Fill In The Blank) thousands.
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