nformation: a) Explain what the time series is likely to look like (i.e., cyclical, seasonal, with a trend). b) Explain what is the predicted GDP value for Q4, 2021?
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- Question 20 Revisit Later Q. "The National Statistical Office, which is under the Union Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, has released its estimates for gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter (Q1) of this fiscal year, 2022-23. The headline is that GDP at constant prices in the first quarter showed 13.5 per cent growth year on year. This is a deceptively high level, given the base effect." The following options are given to explain why this number is deceptively high. i. Most expectations were for quarterly GDP growth in the 15-16 per cent range year on year. ii. Given the base effect, the growth rate of 13.5 percent is in fact a clear disappointment. iii. It needs to be remembered that the equivalent quarter of the previous year, April-June 2021, was when the devastating second wave of the coronavirus epidemic was raging through the country. iv. Even though there was no national lockdown as draconian as that observed during the first wave in 2020, activity…Real-Time Data Analysis Exercise The following table shows the values for real potential GDP and real GDP for the past five years. *Real-time data provided by Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis. Given this information, calculate the output gap for each year by calculating the percentage difference between real GDP and potential GDP. (Enter your responses as percents rounded to two decimal places. Include a minus sign if necessary.) Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Real Potential GDP ($ billions) 18,788 19,163 19,524 19,865 20,224 Real GDP ($ billions) 18,609 19,036 18,509 19,610 20,015 Output Gap (%)Table 1: Rainfall and GDP growth Rainfall growth GDP growth Country Egypt Egypt Year 2000 Quarter1 2001 Quarter 2 2000 Quarter 1 2001 Quarter 2 | 2000 Quarter 1 -1 1 Moгоссо -2 -1 Morocco 4 3 Algeria 3 Source: World Weather Data a. Critically discuss the type of data provided in Table 1. b. Write the theoretical equation that estimates the effect of Rainfall growth on GDP growth. Calculate the parameters of the ordinary least squares model. Interpret your results. c. Calculate the correlation coefficient and critically discuss the difference in interpreting this coefficient and the OLS parameters. d. We assume a model where the linear line starts from the origin. Re-derive the slope in this case.
- QUESTION 4 (a) What is an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model in time- series analysis? (b) Suppose you model the growth rate in the world steel price (steelgr:) as a function of the the Chinese GDP growth rate (AChinaGDP;), using quarterly data: steelgr; = 0.044 +0.45AChinaGDP; + 0.8AChinaGDP;-1 + Et What is the long-run effect on the world steel price of a decrease in the Chinese growth rate from 8.5% to 7%?In business forecasting using multiplicative decomposition which data component do you use to forecast sales outcome with macroeconomic change?Hi please assist with this 1.3 questions 1.3-1.5.South Africa’s economy grew by 1.1% in the first quarter of the yearStats SA has published the latest gross domestic product (GDP) data covering the first quarter of the year, showing that the economy grew by 1.1% in the first three months of 2021.The growth follows a revised 1.4% rise in real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020. On an annualised basis, the economy grew 4.6% quarter-on-quarter.Following confusion caused by the annualisation of GDP data in 2020 – amid the Covid-19 pandemic and resulting lockdowns – Stats SA said it would no longer use the annualised data as the headline GDP statistic.During periods of steady economic growth, annualising is a useful way of expressing quarter-on-quarter performance in annual terms, Stats SA said. However, during periods of economic instability, annualising can be misleading, because it exaggerates growth rates that are unlikely to be repeated.The central problem that is evident in the above…
- This case study focuses on the Australian economy in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic hit. On 4th September 2019, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) published Real GDP data for the quarter ending June, 2019. (The reporting of GDP always lags by about 2 months as it takes time to collect and compile data). The data showed that the Australian economy recorded a quarterly growth of 0.5%. However, there was a decrease in Real GDP per capita. Furthermore, Real GDP per capita in June 2019 was lower than it was a year before (June 2018). Overall, while Real GDP still increased, the growth was very weak; the weakest on record since March 2001. (Source: Australian Financial Review and The Guardian). Required: Question 1. Clearly explain what Real GDP per capita means.Clearly explain why Real GDP per capita decreased whereas there was still growth in Real GDP for the quarter ending June 2019. Question 2. Given the economic conditions described above, predict how the following key…This case study focuses on the Australian economy in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic hit. On 4th September 2019, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) published Real GDP data for the quarter ending June, 2019. (The reporting of GDP always lags by about 2 months as it takes time to collect and compile data). The data showed that the Australian economy recorded a quarterly growth of 0.5%. However, there was a decrease in Real GDP per capita. Furthermore, Real GDP per capita in June 2019 was lower than it was a year before (June 2018). Overall, while Real GDP still increased, the growth was very weak; the weakest on record since March 2001. (Source: Australian Financial Review and The Guardian). Question 4. Given the economic conditions described above, recommend the appropriate monetary policy that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) should implement.Clearly explain why this type of monetary policy is needed. Question 5. Describe in details the steps the RBA must undertake to…After defining what we mean with the term “business cycle”, briefly explain the effects of thefollowing cases regarding output, price levels, employment and the overall situation of the economy(recession, expansion etc.). Use graphs to explain yourself in a clear and effective way.i)Suppose the consumers are more pessimistic about the future and reduce their consumption.ii) Suppose the government banned a specific type of technology that firms use to increaseproductivity.
- Q. Table provided gives data on gross domestic product (GDP) for the United States for the years 1959–2005. a. Plot the GDP data in current and constant (i.e., 2000) dollars against time. b. Letting Y denote GDP and X time (measured chronologically starting with 1 for 1959, 2 for 1960, through 47 for 2005), see if the following model fits the GDP data: Yt = β1 + β2 Xt + ut Estimate this model for both current and constant-dollar GDP. c. How would you interpret β2? d. If there is a difference between β2 estimated for current-dollar GDP and that estimated for constant-dollar GDP, what explains the difference? e. From your results what can you say about the nature of inflation in the United States over the sample period? Please answer c, d, and e. Thank you!The following is the macro model of the economy for next year. (i) Find theparametric solutions for the predicted GDP (Y ) and for the predicted netexport (X): (ii) Verify that the 3rd equation is satisÖed by your solutions. Y=C+G0+X C=a+b(Y-t0Y) X=k-mYThe following graph approximates business cycles in the United States from the first quarter of 1955 to the third quarter of 1959. The vertical blue bar coincides with a period of six or more months of declining real gross domestic product (real GDP). Notice that real GDP trends upward over time but experiences ups and downs in the short run. A period of increasing real GDP is known as a __________ (options: bust, business cycle, boom).
