One brown bag contains 2 red marbles, 2 blue marbles, and 4 green marbles. The other black bag contains 3 red marbles, 2 blue marbles, and 5 green marbles. You also have a biased coin that shows heads with probability 0.7 and tails with probability 0.3. If the coin shows heads, you pick a marble from the brown bag (Br) and from the black bag (Bl) otherwise. You flip the coin, pick a marble randomly, and see that it is green. What is the probability that the green marble was picked from the black bag? Use Bayes Theorem and the table below to compute p(BIG).

One brown bag contains 2 red marbles, 2 blue marbles, and 4 green marbles. The other black bag contains 3 red marbles, 2 blue marbles, and 5 green marbles. You also have a biased coin that shows heads with probability 0.7 and tails with probability 0.3. If the coin shows heads, you pick a marble from the brown bag (Br) and from the black bag (Bl) otherwise. You flip the coin, pick a marble randomly, and see that it is green. What is the probability that the green marble was picked from the black bag? Use Bayes Theorem and the table below to compute p(BIG).

Operations Research : Applications and Algorithms

4th Edition

ISBN:9780534380588

Author:Wayne L. Winston

Publisher:Wayne L. Winston

Chapter21: Simulation

Section21.4: An Example Of Monte Carlo Simulation

Problem 3P

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